| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Phelim Kine | |  President-elect Donald Trump’s picks for top roles aren’t particularly hostile to Ukraine. | Alex Brandon/AP | With help from Paul McLeary, Joe Gould and Connor O’Brien Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The formation of President-elect DONALD TRUMP’s senior national security team is nearing completion and analysts and allies are already beginning to speculate over what the specific combination of personalities and ideologies could mean for the direction of U.S. foreign policy going forward. At the Halifax International Security Forum this past weekend, JIM TOWNSEND from the Center for a New American Security compared the tracking of the ups and downs of those in Trump’s orbit to the “Kremlinology” that dominated analysis of the Soviet Union’s inner politicking during the Cold War. While it’s too soon for your NatSec Daily hosts to suggest who might stand next to Trump at bill signings and who could be listed as traveling with the president on pool reports, there are some early takeaways we can derive from Trump’s first round of picks. Potential disagreements over China loom: The selection of ALEX WONG, a seasoned Asia policy hand, as deputy national security adviser, was greeted with largely bipartisan praise. RUSH DOSHI, former deputy senior director at the National Security Council for China and Taiwan, told NatSec Daily there is a “high degree of variance” in Trump’s China policy. Still, he said that the selection of Wong could ensure Trump’s “transactional” approach to foreign policy could be somewhat more muted. “A strong NSC, including a [principal deputy national security adviser] who takes the China challenge seriously, wasn’t a given for the Trump administration. So this suggests competitive approaches could win out over transactional ones in the interagency process,” Doshi said. But a focus on competition doesn’t mean a desire for confrontation, cautioned JAKE WERNER, who leads East Asia policy at the Quincy Institute think tank in Washington. That could cause tensions with incoming national security adviser Rep. MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) and Trump’s pick for secretary of State, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), who Werner described as having “more unilateral neo-conservative impulses” towards Beijing. “We're likely to see intensifying tension,” Werner said. “This could lead to kind of an incoherent U.S.[-China] policy and because all the tensions might break out into the open and there may be a lot of infighting and inconclusive debates.” The dearth of Ukraine skeptics (for now): Trump’s picks for top roles aren’t particularly hostile to Ukraine, either. Rubio and Waltz have previously backed tough sanctions on Russia and voiced support for giving Kyiv more weapons to repel Russia’s invasion. So too has Trump’s pick to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.). And other picks, like Trump’s choice for U.S. ambassador to NATO, MATTHEW WHITAKER, don’t have marked records opposing Ukraine (Whitaker even voiced early support for Kyiv). That could change. It is still unclear if former Ambassador to Germany RIC GRENELL will occupy a role in Trump’s administration. Two people familiar told Eric that Grenell is being considered for the position of Ukraine peace envoy. Grenell has expressed less sympathy for Ukraine than Rubio and Waltz. In that role, Grenell could have enough influence to overrule the more amenable attitudes others may have in the administration. And of course, figures like TULSI GABBARD, Trump’s pick to be director of national intelligence, have spoken about the war in Ukraine in ways that mirror the Kremlin’s talking points — in particular, Gabbard’s comments early on blaming NATO for instigating the conflict. The absence of prize fighters (for now): With the exception of Stefanik, none of Trump’s current picks for high-level diplomatic roles are known for their tendencies to lash their foes in the geopolitical arena. Though Rubio and Waltz have certainly never minced words about the flaws they perceive in the Biden administration’s foreign policy, neither has a reputation for being especially combative or caustic. And even Stefanik, who gained prominence for her grilling of university presidents over the handling of antisemitism on their campuses, is known to be a skilled and savvy political operator whose rapid rise to House leadership can be attributed as much to her support for Trump as her ability to build relationships within the fractious House Republican Caucus. But of course, the return of the “dragon of Budapest” SEBASTIAN GORKA as National Security Council senior director for counterterrorism could see the firebrand Trump ally thrust more into the diplomatic area, or moved into a higher-profile role if heads roll down the line. Grenell, known for his pugilistic approach to diplomacy, could also hold allies’ feet to the fire in a senior diplomatic role.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Muti-Domain, Layered Defense From Surface to Space.
Lockheed Martin is delivering multi-domain, layered defense from surface to space so the U.S. and allies can stay ahead of accelerating threats. Our proven, integrated air and missile defense systems connect 360-degree sensors, command and control networks, interceptors, and directed energy systems to defend with speed and precision when seconds count. Learn more. | | | | | CEASE-FIRE DEAL REACHED: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU announced today that he will put a proposed cease-fire deal with Hezbollah in Lebanon to a vote of the country’s cabinet, Eric reports. In a speech delivered in Hebrew, the Israeli leader said that he would recommend the Cabinet adopt the proposal, arguing that a cease-fire is needed for Israel to refocus on Iran and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip. He also emphasized that the onus is on Lebanon to restrain Hezbollah, saying: “In full understanding with the United States, we are maintaining full military freedom of action. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm itself, we will attack. If it tries to renew terrorist infrastructure next to the border, we will attack.” MARK YOUR CALENDARS: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is set to testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Dec. 11 about the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, following months of sparring between Chair MICHAEL McCAUL and the State Department. “After months of good faith efforts that were too often met with stonewalling from the State Department, I’m proud to have secured Secretary Blinken’s appearance,” McCaul said in a statement. “His testimony will provide overdue accountability for the American people, our Afghan allies, and Gold Star families.” The hearing comes after Trump made the Afghanistan withdrawal a focal point of his campaign rhetoric, criticizing Biden's handling of the evacuation and emphasizing the loss of 13 U.S. service members in the Abbey Gate bombing. It also followed McCaul’s release of a report arguing the Biden-Harris administration ignored warnings about a Taliban takeover, failed to plan for a noncombatant evacuation and left classified information behind during the rushed withdrawal from Afghanistan. The hearing also comes after Blinken failed to comply with a committee-issued subpoena in September, prompting the committee to advance contempt proceedings. In September, the panel voted 26-25 along party lines Tuesday to advance contempt charges against Blinken over his refusal to testify, with Republicans accusing Blinken of avoiding accountability and Democrats calling the move political theater ahead of the election. FOR AWARENESS: The Biden administration is requesting $24 billion to continue aid for Ukraine and replenish U.S. weapons stocks, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN and JOE GOULD scoop (for Pros!). Two-thirds of the funding will go towards replacing gifted weapons to Ukraine. Congress received the proposal on Monday, but it is unclear whether lawmakers will address the request before the Trump administration enters office in January. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130 PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Dec. 2.
| | | |   | | | | | DOGE ON CHIPS SPENDING: Former presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY is not a fan of the Commerce Department’s lame duck CHIPS and Science Act spending spree. As our own CHRISTINE MUI reports, Ramaswamy, who along with tech mogul ELON MUSK is expected to helm a government review commission dubbed “DOGE” purportedly to eliminate bureaucracy and waste, took to X to criticize Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO for comments she made in an interview with our own STEVEN OVERLY earlier this month. “This is highly inappropriate: they’re accelerating spending ahead of the transition of power,” Ramaswamy said, linking to the POLITICO interview where she discussed her remaining work to implement the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act. On Monday night, Ramaswamy pledged the commission will review every last-minute contract rolled out under the CHIPS Act, and another Biden administration spending initiative, the Inflation Reduction Act. Ramaswamy said he will also recommend that inspectors general scrutinize the spending.
| | UKRAINE’S MONEY TALKS: Ukraine is planning to spend billions on its domestic defense industry next year, and is looking for around $10 billion more in foreign investment and partnerships to supercharge its homegrown production, our own PAUL McLEARY reports (for Pros!). The Ukrainian defense sector currently has around $10 to $15 billion worth of industrial capacity. But if Kyiv can add another $10 billion to that, it can become more self-sufficient in making drones, missiles and anti-armor weapons, SERHIY BOYEV, Ukraine's deputy minister for European integration, said during an interview at the Halifax Security Forum. “There is now a single focus for the effort to increase the military capability of Ukraine,” he said. “The next thing we would like our partners to open up is to do joint projects in what we call advanced weapons, like air defense and different types of missile manufacturing.” Ukraine has proven remarkably adept at developing and building new short and long-range one-way drones that can be guided onto a target. They have also strengthened methods for overcoming Russian electronic jamming of these weapons and have kept on innovating quickly to outpace Russia’s own adaptations. Kyiv got a boost in September when Denmark pledged $195 million from its budget to add to the $446 million from profits from frozen Russian assets to be pumped into the Ukrainian defense industry. In May, the U.S. also announced it was investing $2 billion in the Ukrainian defense industrial base. Boyev said that the money would be used to build artillery systems, drones, anti-tank weapons and missiles. The goal for the long-range missiles and drones being built right now is to continue to target the Russian defense industry far from the border with Ukraine and “really impede and impair the Russians ability to manufacture at such scale as they do now,” by targeting Moscow’s “industrial capacity, its military capacity and supply routes.”
| | LAYING DOWN THE LEAHY LAW: Nine senators are ramping up calls on the Biden administration to apply the "Leahy laws" to Israel amid the war in Gaza, which bar the U.S. from providing military equipment or training to foreign security forces implicated in gross human rights violations. Sen. PETER WELCH (D-Vt.) led senators in a letter criticizing Blinken for what they argued were inadequate answers to an April missive seeking information on Leahy law vetting for Israel and posed more questions about U.S. vetting procedures. "Your response consisted of generalities about the law and recited matters already in the public record," the senators wrote. "In addition, since the time you responded, a number of further allegations of gross violations of human rights by Israeli security forces have come to light, as has public reporting that suggests the State Department has not been properly applying the Leahy law."
| | SHEINBAUM AND TRUDEAU RESPOND: Trump’s late-night threat to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China over migration and fentanyl inflows got prompt responses from Ottawa and Mexico City this morning. At her daily morning press conference today, Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM read off a letter she sent to Trump where she reminded Trump that tariffs against Mexico would affect American companies such as General Motors and Ford that have large manufacturing presences in the country. She warned that Mexico would punch back if necessary, writing in the letter: “What is needed is cooperation and mutual understanding to tackle these significant challenges … For every tariff, there will be a response in kind, until we put at risk our shared enterprises.” Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU said today he spoke with Trump over the late-night post on X, per our own MICKEY DJURIC. “It was a good call,” Trudeau said this morning on Parliament Hill. “We obviously talked about laying out the facts, talking about how the intense and effective connections between our two countries flow back and forth.”
| | — Leaving your job in response to the election? Considering a career change? Let us know. Email your news to rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com
| | — LUCAS HELLEMEIER, War on the Rocks: The implications of a second Trump presidency for Europe’s defense-industrial efforts — VICTORIA BISSET, JÚLIA LEDUR and LESLIE SHAPIRO, The Washington Post: Monitoring the status of hostages still in Gaza after Hamas’s attack — THOMAS FRIEDMAN, The New York Times: Mr. Trump, do you realize how much the world has changed since you were president?
| | — No events tomorrow ahead of Thanksgiving. We wish all our readers who may be traveling tomorrow safe journeys. Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who we disagree with fervently on all matters. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who always manages to build consensus.
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Lockheed Martin Integrated Air and Missile Defense: The best defense has layers. Our systems provide multi-tier defenses that work in concert to defeat incoming threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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