| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Joe Gould | |  Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has threatened a “crushing response” if Israel counterattacks after Iran's Tuesday night missile attack on Israeli territory. | Majid Saeedi/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman, Joseph Gedeon and Connor O’Brien Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Iran has teetered on the edge of building the nuclear bomb for years. The big question now is whether Tehran’s current fight with Israel will push it to finally take the plunge. NatSec Daily posed this question to U.S. officials and analysts as Israel weighs a retaliatory strike against Iran and steps up its offensive against Hezbollah. The conclusion: There’s no sign Iran has made up its mind yet, but it’s clear events of the past few weeks will push Iran to dramatically reassess its national security strategy. “There's a lot more public discussion in Tehran now of changing their nuclear doctrine,” said NICOLE GRAJEWSKI, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and author of a new study on Iran’s strategic equations. “You hear former Iranian officials saying if Israel doesn't stop in Lebanon, they're going to go to Syria, Iraq, and eventually get to our borders.” For years, Iran’s deterrence against Israel has rested on its massive stockpile of missiles and drones, and the fighting capabilities of proxy forces like Hezbollah, with the threat of going for a nuclear weapon looming large in the background. But Iranian strikes on Israel — both in April and this week — show that Israel, with U.S. backing, can effectively blunt the effect of missile strikes. Meanwhile, Israel’s lightning offensive against Hezbollah appears to have handicapped the group, at least temporarily, leaving Iran’s reputation badly bruised and its deterrence capabilities called into question. President JOE BIDEN said he has pushed Israel to avoid targeting Iranian nuclear sites in any response, as the White House scrambles to defuse tensions to avoid a full-scale regional war. There’s still an open question of how Iran will respond to an expected Israeli retaliation against its Tuesday night missile attack on Israeli territory. Iranian President MASOUD PEZESHKIAN has threatened a “crushing response” if Israel counterattacks. And Iranian Foreign Minister ABBAS ARAGHCHI visited Beirut on Friday in a symbolic show of support for Hezbollah. “Iran has always wanted to show the world it is one screwdriver turn away from nuclear breakout,” said ALI VAEZ of the International Crisis Group. “They would go for a nuclear breakout only as an option of last resort, if their proxies stop providing security and they lose other forms of regional deterrence.” Both those things seem to be happening, making the risk “higher but not yet inevitable,” said Vaez. Iran is the only non-nuclear country in the world to produce uranium to 60 percent enrichment — close to the precipice of weapons-grade nuclear fuel. And it is believed to have a large enough stockpile of this fissile material to produce at least three bombs. The U.S. intelligence community still assesses that Iran’s supreme leader has not made a decision to do so, the White House said, but added that it is monitoring the situation closely. “The president has made clear, we are committed to never letting Iran obtain a nuclear weapon — and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome,” a National Security Council spokesperson said. | | SEIZING THE MOMENT IN LEBANON: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said there’s a short window of opportunity for Lebanon to try and push past Hezbollah’s stranglehold over the country, our own PAUL MCLEARY writes in. “There's a vacuum there now,” Austin told reporters on a visit to the Scott Air Force base in Illinois. “That window won't stay open forever … I think if the right things are done to demonstrate that the government wants to care for its people, then I think that we may see things reversed. We may see people no longer want to support [Hezbollah] as much as they have in the past.” The Israeli operations in southern Lebanon mean “it's going to be more difficult for Hezbollah to do what they've done in the past. But, you know, they obviously can't destroy Hezbollah” completely, Austin warned. Austin was a ground commander in Iraq, and then led U.S. Central Command where he ran the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan. That gave him a hard-won perspective on how much an industrialized military can do to defeat an organized militant group. Asked if his Israeli counterparts have listened to his counsel on waging the war, Austin said the Israelis are very good at finding legitimate targets, but deciding what weapon to use — a 500-lb. bomb or a 2,000-lb. — is another issue. “They haven't taken every bit of advice that I've provided, but I recognize that they're going to do things their way,” he said. EARLY WARNINGS: Within days of Israel launching its campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, Pentagon and State Department officials were privately warning top Biden aides that Israel’s offensive could violate international law and erode U.S. standing in the Arab world. That’s according to internal emails published by Reuters' HUMEYRA PAMUK. The messages offer new insights into the administration’s internal deliberations on how to respond to the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks. “The U.S.’ lack of response on the humanitarian conditions for Palestinians is not only ineffective and counterproductive, but we are also being accused of being complicit to potential war crimes by remaining silent on Israel’s actions against civilians,” BILL RUSSO, the State Department’s top public diplomacy official, told White House officials, according to the correspondence obtained by Reuters. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring COMFORT ERO, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group think tank. When NatSec Daily sat down with her this week and asked what her drink of choice was, she didn’t hesitate in answering: Hot water. What? “I know, I know, but it’s my great leveler,” she said, laughing. “I grew up drinking it and have always relied on it to bring me balance.” And that even includes times when she visits Washington in the summer and it’s boiling hot outside. (Though she says she enjoys the occasional glass of chilled white wine, too.) How does she take her drink of choice? Neat. “People always ask if I want a lemon or honey or something with it, but no, just the hot water.” So for this zero-proof, budget-friendly option, which is the healthiest edition of Drinks with NatSec Daily we’ve ever had, cheers to you, Comfort! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND! Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1 | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | NATSEC LEADERS HEAD TO BATTLEGROUND STATES: Former U.S. generals and ambassadors who have endorsed Vice President KAMALA HARRIS are heading to battleground states next week to make their pitch to voters. It’s part of a bus tour through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin arranged by the National Security Leaders for America advocacy group, led by MICHAEL SMITH. We asked Smith, a retired rear admiral in the U.S. Navy, why he thought a national security-focused bus tour of battleground states could actually sway voter opinions when issues like the economy, inflation and health care seem to be the top priorities this election. Smith argued voters understand that economic stability and national security go hand in hand. “We believe undecided voters are paying attention to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, along with rising tensions with China, and fundamentally recognize that absent strong, steady, and inclusive leadership these crises can rapidly expand out of control and impact global stability and ultimately the American economy.” | | | DEATH BY A THOUSAND CLICKS: China might not need ships, planes or tanks to fulfill its decadeslong dream of reintegrating the sovereign democracy of Taiwan. That’s according to a new report out this afternoon from Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ experts CRAIG SINGLETON, retired Rear Admiral MARK MONTGOMERY and BENJAMIN JENSEN. They argue the quickest route to reunification is something well within Beijing’s grasp today: “a cyber-enabled economic coercion campaign,” replete with sly efforts to undermine Taiwan’s economy and tear asunder its social fabric. Singleton and Montgomery told our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS they came away with that conviction after organizing a tabletop exercise with Taiwan’s Academy of Banking and Finance earlier this year. As part of that, the pair even got to step into the shoes of XI JINPING for a day — an experience that proved eye-opening. “I was somewhat surprised at the vulnerability that was exposed in the exercise,” said Singleton. Montgomery said he found a “sweet spot” where the costs of interference for Beijing are low, the price of resistance in Taiwan is high, and “no red lines for the U.S. get tripped.” The FDD team said one of their big takeaways was the need to ensure Taiwan is better prepared to withstand a slow-developing siege, not just a lightning invasion from Beijing. “We have to focus on cyber resilience and economic decoupling strategies to minimize China’s leverage over Taiwan,” Montgomery said. | | | |   | | | | | POLAR PUSH: Senators from both parties are pressing the Biden administration for details on how it will implement a new icebreaker construction plan after the U.S. struck a deal with Finland and Canada this summer, Morning Defense reports (for Pros!). The Icebreaker Collaboration Pact, unveiled during this summer’s NATO Summit, aims to counter Russia’s dominance in building ships to break up ice in large waterways, but lawmakers are concerned about the U.S. Coast Guard’s procurement plans and how it will impact U.S. shipbuilders. The Coast Guard’s cost estimates to procure three new icebreakers are under scrutiny, meanwhile, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting the price tag could run up to $5.1 billion — a jump from the Coast Guard's official estimate of $3.2 billion. In a letter to Biden, Senate Appropriations Chair PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.), with Sens. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) and CINDY HYDE-SMITH (R-Miss.) questioned how the deal will reach “its fullest potential” and urged stronger federal coordination as the pact navigates regulatory and funding hurdles. Murphy chairs the Homeland Security Appropriations panel that controls Coast Guard spending. Hyde-Smith is a member of the Homeland Security spending panel, and the Coast Guard plans to team up with Bollinger Shipyards to produce two new heavy icebreakers in her home state. | | | LAWMAKERS WANT 'ABSOLUTE TRANSPARENCY' ON SHIP WELDING: The House Armed Services Committee wants answers from Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO over reports of faulty welding on submarines and aircraft carriers. Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), ranking member ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), along with Seapower Subcommittee Chair TRENT KELLY and ranking member JOE COURTNEY (D-Conn.), sent a letter Thursday to Del Toro seeking a briefing on suspected faulty welds at HII's Newport News Shipbuilding and plans to fix the those ships. The lawmakers said they want to "understand the scope of the problem" and requested answers by Oct. 11 on the extent of the issues, recovery and revised plans for affected ships and a timeline of when the Navy became aware of the issue. "Absolute transparency with Congress is essential," the Armed Services leaders warned. "The safety of our sailors is our top concern, and we must immediately understand any risks associated with the faulty work,” the lawmakers wrote. | | WHO’S THE SUPERPOWER HERE? The Biden administration is taking fresh heat following Israel’s attacks on military targets in Lebanon, with critics accusing Biden of a passive approach as he struggles to contain the growing conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies. Biden has urged restraint, but his influence over Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU appears to be fading after Israel’s latest strikes and last week’s assassination of Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia leader HASSAN NASRALLAH. Not so, say peace advocates who are slamming Biden for not using every bit of U.S. leverage to stop the situation from spiraling into a full-scale regional war. JOSH PAUL, who resigned from the State Department in protest over the administration’s Gaza policy, also spoke out, saying Iran’s missile attack on Israel was “entirely preventable.” He argued Biden had multiple opportunities to use U.S. leverage to stop Israeli operations in Gaza. “Had he done so, the Houthis wouldn’t be attacking shipping, Hezbollah wouldn’t be firing missiles, and Iran wouldn’t be launching strikes,” Paul argued. ERIC EIKENBERRY, the government relations director at Win Without War, accused the administration of “pushing hard for a cease-fire but not bringing any real teeth to bear.” He accused administration officials of letting its Israel policy run on autopilot when it could be using leveraging ranging from arms, to fuel, to diplomatic cover to pressure Israel.Legal experts, including former State Department attorney BRIAN FINUCANE, are also raising red flags. Finucane pointed to the Reagan administration’s conclusion that Israel violated the U.N. charter and may have violated U.S. law first by attacking Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 and again using American weapons to target civilians in Lebanon in 1982. “The Biden administration should be doing what Reagan did,” Finucane said, calling for more accountability and transparency from Israel. Without it, he warned, the U.S. risks turning a blind eye to potential violations of international law. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace.
Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more. | | | | | — JOSHUA THOMAS is now a special assistant at the NSC. He most recently was a platoon leader for the 10th Special Forces Group (Airborne). — LEWIS MAY is now fiscal transparency innovation fund coordinator at the State Department. He most recently was a special assistant at State. | | — EHUD EIRAN, OFER GUTERMAN and DAVID SIMANTOV, War on the Rocks: Israel’s Oct. 7 early warning failure: Who is to blame? — ALAN SUDERMAN, AP News: Collapse of national security elites’ cyber firm leaves bitter wake.
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: At The One-Year Mark — Gaza: The Human Toll — Heritage Foundation, 9:30 a.m.: Never Again Is Not Enough: Remembering the Tragedy of October 7 Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who will not heed our demands to halt her nuclear weapons program. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who will remain safe under our nuclear umbrella. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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