REPUBLICANS’ STOPGAP REALITY CHECK Democrats, and some Republicans, are never going to back the six-month spending patch House GOP leaders are proposing as part of their stopgap funding bill this week. Republican leaders in the chamber likely know they won’t be able to get Democratic signoff on their funding bill’s policy add-on, which requires proof of citizenship to register to vote. But there’s still some hope that Democrats, seeking a compromise to avert a still-unlikely government shutdown come Oct. 1, will bend on the timing aspect. Democrats have been advocating punting the shutdown deadline into mid-December, while the GOP legislation kicks it into March. There are plenty of reasons to think Republicans won’t gain ground on that point, either. The arguments in favor of the December deadline are deeper than denying a potential Trump administration a hand in negotiating a final deal — some GOP lawmakers prefer an earlier deadline, too. Here’s why: How this ends: While the GOP’s six-month proposal could win Speaker Mike Johnson some initial points with conservatives, the next three tumultuous weeks in Congress are likely to end with Johnson conceding to a couple-month spending fix, along with many other spending add-ons. (In a fresh veto threat on Monday, the Biden administration reiterated several extra non-negotiables, including billions of dollars more in disaster aid and more money for veterans health care than House GOP leaders are currently willing to provide.) No supermajority: For months, top Republican appropriators have pointed to one major flaw in their hardliner colleagues’ strategy: More leverage next year won’t necessarily materialize, even if Election Day results in the GOP winning the House, Senate and the presidency. The House’s top appropriator, Oklahoma Republican Rep. Tom Cole, has reminded his colleagues that there aren’t enough flippable seats in the Senate for either party to emerge with a supermajority next year. And that means a final funding deal would need bipartisan backing to clear the Senate next year, just like now. Trump already tried: Congressional Republicans successfully punted a leftover funding negotiation to Donald Trump as he headed into his first term. But when the final deal came together in the spring of 2017, Trump didn’t win on any of his major demands. Dems aren’t going to help: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries just laid out his side’s thinking in a letter to lawmakers, calling it “unserious and unacceptable” and urging Congress to pass a short-term stopgap funding bill “that will permit us to complete the appropriations process during this calendar year and is free of partisan policy changes.” The White House followed with its veto threat for the legislation, which could also give vulnerable Democrats cover to oppose it (the House vote margin on the GOP plan is going to be tight). Defense-hawk disincentives: Pentagon leaders are warning that a six-month spending patch will do major damage to the military, including readiness goals and efforts to deter China, which could earn Republicans flak back home. Another budget-cap threat: Remember that side deal President Joe Biden and ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy made on the debt limit last year, which involved automatic cuts unless Congress passed a full spending plan by the end of April? That’s still relevant here. Defense hawks are eager to avoid another spring funding standoff that pushes up against that deadline. The White House noted that cliff in its veto threat, warning that House Republicans’ proposal for a stopgap through March 28 is “dangerously close to the deadline when across-the-board cuts would come into place …” Incumbents take the blame: Democratic candidates trying to pick off GOP incumbents in November would surely seize on any shutdown scare ahead of Election Day as fodder to attack sitting Republicans. And those hits could cost the GOP their House majority, as a couple of swing-district Republicans already warned Johnson this month. — Jennifer Scholtes and Caitlin Emma, with help from Nicholas Wu GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Sept. 9, and welcome back from recess!
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