| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Hundreds of people gather near a U.S. Air Force transport plane Aug. 16, 2021, at the international airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. | Shekib Rahmani/AP | With help from Daniel Lippman, Phelim Kine and Ari Hawkins Subscribe here | Email Robbie| Email Eric Robbie Gramer here, the newest member of the POLITICO team and your new guide to National Security Daily! Rest assured for the fans of Eric, who are legion, he is still deftly co-anchoring your favorite natsec newsletter. Three years after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Democrats and Republicans are launching a fresh wave of attacks and counterattacks on who is to blame for the debacle, all with an eye toward the November ballot. The battle of the “who screwed up Afghanistan” narrative is playing out across Washington in the form of congressional investigations, cable news hits and statements from campaign proxies. Republicans released a particularly well-timed (for the Trump campaign) investigation over the weekend that puts the blame for defeat in Afghanistan squarely on JOE BIDEN (and now KAMALA HARRIS). On Monday, a group of 10 former top U.S. military commanders shot back with an open letter defending Harris' foreign policy credentials and accusing former president DONALD TRUMP of a “chaotic approach” to Afghanistan that “severely hindered” the Biden administration’s withdrawal options when it entered office. Trump and Harris have a lot of ground to cover in their high-stakes debate on Tuesday on all matters foreign and domestic. That could now include Afghanistan, since it’s back in the center of the Washington political news cycle. The basic gist of the Republican argument is that the Biden administration botched the entire withdrawal and is solely responsible for bringing about the final humiliating defeat at the hands of the Taliban. “The Afghanistan withdrawal will go down as one of the most embarrassing moments in American history, all thanks to Kamala's incompetence,” Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. The Democrats shoot back that it was Trump before he left office that set the stage for the chaotic withdrawal, and that ultimately, Team Biden made the right call to end an otherwise endless war and focus on bigger threats like Russia and China. “Americans are no longer fighting and dying in Afghanistan, and we're now no longer spending tens of billions of dollars a month to fight a war that could not be won,” Rep. JASON CROW, a Colorado Democrat and Army veteran of both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, told NatSec Daily. For Republicans, just getting the Afghanistan withdrawal back into the news is a win — as it highlights one of the highest-profile failures in American foreign policy that ended on Biden’s watch, regardless of where the fault for the final phase of the war lies. Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) has hit the airwaves in network and cable news hits to outline the findings of his three-year investigation, and Trump campaign surrogates are still touting the former president’s ties with Gold Star families of U.S. service members killed in Afghanistan, despite the controversy surrounding his recent visit to Arlington National Cemetery. Harris’s campaign is lashing out at the Republican presidential contender on national security in a new campaign ad featuring former top Trump officials such as former Secretary of Defense MARK ESPER saying he isn’t fit to be commander in chief, as our own MERIDITH McGRAW reports. But Harris also has a line to walk between showing that she has been a key player in foreign policy decisions over the past four years, without being hit by criticism over how some of those Biden decisions played out. It’s unclear whether Harris will fight back and hammer Trump on his own Afghanistan strategy on Tuesday, or try to shift the narrative to other foreign policy issues. The Harris campaign unveiled a new policy section on her website Monday ahead of the debate including a section on foreign policy, proclaiming that Harris is “ready to be commander in chief on day one.” It cites Harris’s roles on Russia, Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific, Israel and Gaza, and NATO. One word that isn’t mentioned once? Afghanistan.
| | ISRAEL’S OTHER FRONT: Syria has accused Israel of conducting air strikes against Hezbollah targets in its territory and killing 16 people, as regional tensions continue to worsen amid the war in the Gaza Strip. As The Wall Street Journal’s RORY JONES reports, Syria alleges that Israel struck targets across Syria, focusing much of their attention on the city of Masyaf. Israel has previously claimed that Iran has operated a research facility in the eastern Syrian city that develops weapons and missiles for Hezbollah and other proxies. Israel, for its part, has denied responsibility for airstrikes and attacks against Syria. But Israel has previously struck Hezbollah targets in Syria over the last decade, blowing up weapons and fuel supplies destined for Hezbollah that are transiting through the country. Read: A deadly shooting at a border crossing highlights worsening unrest in the Israeli-occupied West Bank by The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY NEW IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS? The United Nations’ top nuclear watchdog is pledging that he’ll hold negotiations with Iranian President MASOUD PEZESHKIAN before November, per Reuters’ FRANCOIS MURPHY. International Atomic Energy Agency chief RAFAEL GROSSI said in Vienna today that Pezeshkian “agreed to meet with me at an appropriate juncture” and called on Tehran to “facilitate such a meeting in the not-too-distant future so that we can establish a constructive dialogue that leads swiftly to real results.” Grossi said that he wanted his meeting with Pezeshkian to occur before the U.S. election, acknowledging that any chances of talks between Washington and Tehran are limited in the lead up to Nov. 5 as all sides wait to see who wins the election. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — STATE’S SALARIES SNAFU: The U.S. diplomatic corps is up in arms over a procedural screw up that could cause major across-the-board salary cuts to most diplomats posted abroad without a legislative fix, four officials tell NatSec Daily. Most foreign service officers abroad will take a 22 percent pay cut on Oct. 1 due to the accidental expiration of a funding system called the “overseas compatibility pay” that adjusts diplomats’ paychecks to help offset the loss of pay when posted in Washington. “We’re not sure how it happened, but it is just a massive screw-up and everyone is absolutely livid,” said one senior U.S. diplomat familiar with the matter, who was granted anonymity to rant about the department that often doesn’t let them speak to press on-the-record. The pay cut would affect all non-senior foreign service officers posted outside of the United States — around 11,000 personnel in all. The State Department hasn’t elaborated publicly on how this oversight happened and whether the fault lies with Foggy Bottom or Capital Hill, but top officials and the American Foreign Service Association, the union that represents foreign service officers, are scrambling behind the scenes with Congress to fix the problem. The State Department said in a statement that it is working with Congress on “the urgent need for an extension.” Officials involved in the negotiations told NatSec Daily that resolving the issue will require two things: First, adding a measure to Congress’s stopgap government funding bill (that’s the easy part, as this isn’t particularly controversial measure for either party) and second, Congress needs to actually pass that stopgap funding bill (the much harder part).
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | IT’S MONDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily on Robbie’s first day! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments this week at ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team:@nahaltoosi,@PhelimKine,@connorobrienNH,@paulmcleary,@magmill95,@johnnysaks130,@ErinBanco,@reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | CYBER, CYBER BILLS: Defense bills and spending stopgaps aren’t the only things on Congress’ long preelection to-do list — there’s also a slew of cybersecurity and tech action on the docket for the next few weeks. As our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity walked through this morning, a good chunk of those bills will get attention during this week’s much-anticipated "China Week" (scroll down to On the Hill for more on that). One of the bills allocates $325 million per year through fiscal year 2027 to counter Chinese malign foreign influence efforts. Another notable piece of cybersecurity-related legislation getting congressional attention would require U.S. authorities to inspect foreign cranes constructed by adversarial nations (i.e. China) for cyber risks before they’re used in loading and unloading cargo ships. The bill comes as a bipartisan group of lawmakers and analysts have raised the alarm over the prospect that Chinese-manufactured cranes could be compromised in future cyberattacks against major U.S. ports.
| | SEOUL’S NUCLEAR SOUL-SEARCHING: South Korea’s new defense chief is voicing new openness to his country developing its own nuclear arsenal, per Voice of America’s WILLIAM GALLO. Defense Minister KIM YONG-HYUN, who took office Friday, said during his confirmation process that “all options” should remain open if U.S. nuclear protection falls through, making him the first sitting South Korean defense minister to publicly entertain the idea of going nuclear. He had previously called on South Korea to develop its own weapons as a way to counter North Korea, arguing as an academic that Seoul had “no survival or future” without its own deterrent. The comments put him at odds with past promises from his new boss, President YOON SUK YEOL, that South Korea would not develop its own arsenal. A South Korean defense ministry spokesperson told Voice of America that there has been “no change in the principle or position” of South Korea regarding nuclear weapons. But they added that,“if we cannot guarantee the survival and security of the state, all means and methods are open.” Read: North Korean weapons extending Russian stockpiles, German general says by Reuters’ JOSH SMITH
| | CHINA WEEK ANGST: Democrats are joining some Republicans in bashing House leadership’s “China Week” spate of legislation targeting Beijing. As our own PHELIM KINE writes in, Democrats were already not happy that Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s office planned and executed China Week with minimal consultation and dropped two bipartisan bills targeting import loopholes and curbing outbound investment. But one of the five China Week bills that the House Rules Committee will consider today is also drawing fire from the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus and Asian American advocacy groups. Rep. LANCE GOODEN’s (R-Texas) Protect America’s Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act of 2024 includes a provision that will revive the Justice Department’s China Initiative, which was terminated in 2022 due to allegations of racial profiling. That program drew criticism for implicitly casting suspicion on Chinese citizens or Asian Americans with ties to China. Gooden’s bill will restore the program under the name the CCP Initiative aimed to “curb spying” by Chinese Communist Party operatives. CAPAC chair Rep. JUDY CHU (D-Calif.) will hold a press briefing on the Hill on Tuesday along with scholars unfairly targeted by the now-defunct China Initiative to outline “next steps to ensuring that [Gooden’s bill] is not successful,” said a statement issued Tuesday by the nonprofit Asian Americans Advancing Justice. Johnson and Gooden’s offices didn’t respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment about CAPAC’s concerns or the bill selection. But Rep. JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Ark.), the chair of the House select committee on China, is promising that the two trade and investment bills will get a fair shake later in this Congress. “We'll continue to work on the remaining bills as we go through this legislative session [such as] de-minimis and outbound investment. These are bills the speaker is very interested in and is committed to, and I believe those will come up before the end of the year,” Moolenaar told our own ARI HAWKINS (in an interview for Pros!). Moolenaar’s assurances haven’t mollified Democrats. A Democratic aide, granted anonymity to speak freely, told Ari that “it's clear it's a partisan week” and added "this is totally not a serious attempt to rein in China."
| | | |   | | | | | ROLE REVERSALS: Officials in Guinea-Bissau seized more than two tons of cocaine found aboard a Venezuelan plane, a major change in fortunes for the two countries as Venezuela’s political crisis rages. The raid is one of the largest drug seizures in West Africa in recent years. It represents an evolution for Guinea-Bissau, a former Portuguese colony in West Africa which has often been described as the textbook example of a “narco-state.” And the seizure comes as analysts have warned that continued political instability in Venezuela could provide an opening for drug cartels to increase their foothold in the country.
| | — JONATHAN MEYER has left the Department of Homeland Security where he was general counsel for three years, our DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. — CELIA GLASSMAN is now deputy director of policy and government affairs at AIPAC. She most recently was assistant director for legislative and regulatory policy at EY and has also worked for Sens. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) and Rep. SAM GRAVES (R-Mo.). — DAVID McKENZIE has joined the Center for a New American Security as its director of communications. He was previously a foreign correspondent for CNN, with postings in Johannesburg and Beijing, and helped launch UNICEF’s Africa Services Unit. — PASCAL CONFAVREUX is now deputy spokesperson for the French Foreign Ministry. He was previously spokesperson and press counselor for the French embassy in Washington, D.C. — SEAN BARTLETT is the deputy assistant secretary for outreach, strategy and events in the State Department Bureau of Global Public Affairs. He is an alum of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
| | — DAVID S. CLOUD, The Wall Street Journal: Iraqi Banks Used U.S.-Created System to Funnel Funds to Iran — ROB DANNENBERG, The Cipher Brief: This Administration’s Final Decisions on Ukraine could be its most important
| | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 a.m.: Japan Searches for Leadership — German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: Russia 2030 Futures: The View from Central and Eastern Europe — House Science, Space and Technology Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on "Risks and Rewards: Encouraging Commercial Space Innovation While Maintaining Public Safety" — Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Black Sea Security: Romania’s Military Modernization and Armenia’s Foreign Policy Reorientation — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, 12 p.m.: Strategic Planning in Chaos: The Future of the U.S.-Israel Security Partnership — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: Understanding and Countering China’s Global South Strategy in the Indo-Pacific — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Investigations Subcommittee, 3:30 p.m.: A hearing on "The U.S. Companies' Technology Fueling The Russian War Machine” — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 5 p.m.: A book discussion on STEPHANIE BAKER’s book "Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia" Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is launching a fresh wave of attacks against Robbie as he starts his tenure as NatSec Daily anchor. Thanks to our producer, Emily Lussier, who is defending Robbie’s leadership of this newsletter.
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