Monday, September 9, 2024

What 3 new ads tell us about the election

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Sep 09, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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THE CATCH-UP

OFF THE DEEP END — Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) seems to have fallen for a viral right-wing story about undocumented Haitian immigrants eating cats, ducks and geese in Springfield, Ohio, raising questions about misinformation in Vance’s online ecosystem. Though ELON MUSK and Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) have tweeted about it, police tell the Springfield News-Sun’s Jessica Orozco that they haven’t gotten any such reports, and that the origins are a Facebook post citing someone’s “neighbor’s daughter’s friend.” A separate incident in Canton, Ohio, involving a registered U.S. voter may have been confused in the mix. For a nuanced look at Springfield’s Haitian immigrant influx, read last week’s NYT story

HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “Conservative activist launches $1bn crusade to ‘crush’ liberal America,” by FT’s Alex Rogers, interviewing LEONARD LEO

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at Northwestern High School in Detroit, Monday, Sept. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

A new GOP ad campaign aims to convince Jewish voters that VP Kamala Harris stands with her party’s progressive wing. | Paul Sancya/AP Photo

AD IT UP — The political news cycle is just starting to whir back to life as Congress returns to town and tomorrow night’s debate kicks off the presidential election’s final sprint. But on a fairly slow day, we have news about three interesting ad campaigns, all exclusive to POLITICO, that reveal interesting dynamics about the close race to control Washington.

SCOOP: The Republican Jewish Coalition is launching a $10 million ad campaign to support DONALD TRUMP, in what it calls the largest ad buy in the history of the Jewish community. Part of a $15 million effort this cycle, the ad aims to convince Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia that VP KAMALA HARRIS is “no ordinary Democrat,” saying she stands with the “Squad” and sympathizes with antisemitic protesters. It’ll start running during the debate. Watch the ad here

This, of course, ties in with Republicans’ overall effort to paint Harris as a member of her party’s progressive wing who’s too far left for America. And it comes as Democrats are struggling to hang onto the most ardently pro-Israel Jewish voters in their coalition. Harris is being squeezed by both sides when it comes to the Israel-Hamas war. As AP’s Mariam Fam documents, some crucial Palestinian American voters, who are deeply grieving over the 40,000 people killed, can’t bring themselves to vote for Harris either. The war is bound to stay on the front burner in the coming weeks: Axios’ Barak Ravid reports that Israel is pressuring Congress to push South Africa to stop pursuing its genocide case at the International Court of Justice.

SCOOP: UnidosUS Action PAC and Future Forward are launching a $2.5 million ad campaign across TV, digital and radio to boost the Harris campaign with Latino voters. The Spanish-language spots in swing states, beginning next month, focus on a positive message about Harris’ plans for the economy and housing. As Republicans have made inroads with Hispanic voters recently (especially non-Spanish speakers), broad dismay with the cost of living has jeopardized Dems’ standing with the demographic — making messaging like this crucial for Harris to maintain support.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: In a sign that House Democrats are confident enough to play some offense, House Majority PAC is putting $3 million into ads bolstering Dems against Reps. MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS (R-Iowa) and JEN KIGGANS (R-Va.), our colleague Ally Mutnick scoops. These are “districts that are tougher to flip” or weren’t initially at the top of Democrats’ list, indicating that the party is riding a bit higher on enthusiasm about Harris.

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN — House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES wrote in a “Dear Colleague” letter today that House Republicans’ plans for a continuing resolution are “partisan and extreme.” He called for a CR that is only short-term and ends during 2024. Meanwhile, Heritage Action EVP RYAN WALKER said in a statement that if Senate Democrats slap down the SAVE Act, “conservatives can still deliver a win for Americans by avoiding an omnibus” — signaling that the omnibus will be the right’s real fight this fall, as we reported this morning.

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

FILE - Democratic gubernatorial candidate Colin Van Ostern sits on stage during a rally for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at St. Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., Monday, Oct. 24, 2016. Van Ostern who managed U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster’s first campaign announced his candidacy to succeed her Thursday, March 28, 2024, in New Hampshire’s 2nd District. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Colin Van Ostern is looking to win the Democratic congressional nomination in a New Hampshire primary tomorrow. | Andrew Harnik, File/AP Photo

1. PRIMARY COLORS: When the last three states wrap up their congressional primaries tomorrow, one of the most hotly contested races is MAGGIE GOODLANDER vs. COLIN VAN OSTERN in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. ANN McLANE KUSTER (D-N.H.). From Lebanon, WaPo’s James Hohmann writes that the better-funded Goodlander is seen as the favorite. But with little ideological distance between the two, the contest has gotten pretty personal. And it has divided national Democrats, many of whom have lined up behind Goodlander, and the local establishment, which is largely backing Van Ostern (including Kuster).

There’s another interesting dimension to Goodlander’s candidacy: She’s the rare congressional contender to put antitrust front and center, Josh Sisco reports. Touting her work at the Justice Department fighting corporate monopolies, Goodlander is tapping into the populist economic agenda that has played a big part in the Biden administration — “a rare, real-life test for the anti-corporate message.” It remains to be seen how much this issue will motivate voters. (She’s also touting abortion rights and her work on Trump’s impeachment.)

2. THE GROUND GAME: The Trump campaign and a network of allied groups, including America PAC and Turning Point Action, “are putting an unprecedented focus” on a ground game to turn out sporadic or unlikely voters across the swing states, Reuters’ Alexandra Ulmer, Nathan Layne and Gram Slattery reveal in detail for the first time. Reporting from York, Pennsylvania, they find that Republicans are lavishing personal attention on these harder-to-reach voters, who tend to be younger, rural and white but also include many people of color.

The model is Trump’s labor-intensive Iowa caucus effort, which helped him win early this year thanks to a granular, neighborhood-focused strategy. But Republicans are split on how smart this is for the general: In a tight race, it could be essential to get Trump-friendly, tuned-out voters to the polls. But some Republicans think they should focus more on persuading swing voters.

3. THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER: “How Trump Could Turn a $400 Billion Green Bank Into a Fossil Fuel Lender,” by Bloomberg’s Ari Natter and Michelle Ma: The Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office “was once marked for death under former President Donald Trump’s administration. But the office survived and flourished under President JOE BIDEN, with its lending authority swelling to $400 billion for carbon-cutting technologies. Now, if Trump wins the White House for a second term, some in his inner circle say he may opt to use the lending program to fund fossil fuel and other energy projects favored by Republicans.”

4. DEMOCRACY WATCH: The Atlantic’s October issue is all about Trump’s threat to American democracy, and it leads off with a big Mark Leibovich swing about how Republicans have consistently kowtowed to Trump for the past decade. Having bent to the GOP to his will, Trump has repeatedly defied predictions that the party might move on from him. “Because if there’s been one recurring lesson of the Trump-era GOP,” Leibovich writes, “it’s this: Never underestimate the durability of a demagogue with a captive base, a desperate will to keep going, and — perhaps most of all — a feeble and terrified opposition of spineless ciphers.” The wordless cover

5. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD: “US proposes requiring reporting for advanced AI, cloud providers,” by Reuters’ David Shepardson: “[T]o ensure the technologies are safe and can withstand cyberattacks … [t]he proposal from the [Commerce] department’s Bureau of Industry and Security would set mandatory reporting to the federal government about development activities of ‘frontier’ AI models and computing clusters.”

6. ALL ABOARD: “Trial Begins Over ‘Trump Train’ Encounter With 2020 Biden Campaign Bus,” by NYT’s J. David Goodman in Austin, Texas: “[A] federal civil trial … seeks to hold the Trump supporters responsible for assault and political intimidation tactics. Opening arguments begin on Monday.”

7. UP FOR DEBATE: Harris said in an interview put out today on “The Rickey Smiley Morning Show” that she expects Trump to get personal and lie tomorrow night. “We should be prepared for the fact that he is not burdened by telling the truth,” she warned, per Emmy Martin. Meanwhile, WaPo’s Tyler Pager and Josh Dawsey turn up a new detail about an ABC rules decision the Harris camp won: She and Trump will be watched by producers during commercial breaks to make sure they’re not being fed help by aides.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Kamala Harris is getting backup on Afghanistan from Steve Abbot, Lloyd Newton, Larry Ellis and other generals and admirals.

Mike Pence has some advice about debating Harris.

Kate Walsh is hitting the trail for Harris.

Jennifer Wexton is “not afraid to play that ‘I’m dying and this is a priority’ card.”

OUT AND ABOUT — The Black Professionals in International Affairs hosted a Congressional Black Caucus all-white kick-off jazz brunch yesterday at the Kennedy Center, with awards going to Caroline Wanga, Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), Sabrina Elba, Aldis Hodge and Shawanesh Underwood. Also SPOTTED: U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Ron Busby Sr., Michael Serwadda, Alexandria Maloney, Brandelyn Anderson, Ethel Mwedziwendira, Charles Carithers, Ndidi Nwuneli, Rama Yade, Angela Tate and Michelle Washington.

— SPOTTED at a weekend fundraiser hosted by Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) in support of the DCCC: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), Kevin Murray, Kym Whitley, Freda Payne, Yvette Lee Bowser, Jon Bauman, Yvonne Wheeler and Doug Moore.

TRANSITIONS — Richard (Dick) Sauber is now a partner in Kramer Levin’s litigation, congressional investigations, and white collar defense and government investigations practices. He previously was special counsel to President Joe Biden, and is a VA alum. … Celia Glassman is now deputy director of policy and government affairs at AIPAC. She most recently was assistant director for legislative and regulatory policy at Ernst & Young, and is a Jim Risch, Marco Rubio and Sam Graves alum. …

… Bart Devon will be executive director of the Alliance for Expanding America’s Workforce. He previously was senior director of government relations at Eggleston. … Aviation litigator Roy Goldberg is joining Clark Hill as a member. He previously was at Stinson.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Joe Tutino, comms director for Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) and a Niki Tsongas and Obama 2012 alum, and Emily Hall, director of partnerships at the National Apartment Association, got married Saturday at The Clifton in Charlottesville, Virginia. They met at the 2015 D.C. Beer Fest at Nats Park. PicAnother picSPOTTED: Steve Kerrigan, Jacob Watts, Maggie Dancy, Julianne Heberlein, Ian O’Keefe, Jason Palitsch and Chris Marquette.

— Lily Moll, VP of grassroots at the American Conservation Coalition, and Jordan Long, director of government relations at the Beacon Center of Tennessee, got married Saturday at the First Presbyterian Church in Greenfield, Tennessee. They met through involvement in Tennessee politics. Pic

— Coco Pannell, who manages news and political partners at YouTube, and Brandon Smith, chief of staff for the Tennessee AG, got married Saturday at St. George’s Episcopal Church, with the reception at the Fisher Center for the Performing Arts in Nashville. They met at a dinner party with friends last year.PicSPOTTED: Tennessee AG Jonathan Skrmetti, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Ward Baker, Lee Dunn, Michael and Sarah Ruth Hendrix, Ali-Jae Henke, Akbar Ahmed, Elaina Plott Calabro, Jackie Lopez Rojas, and Ammon and Amy Simon.

BONUS BIRTHDAYS: Audrey Cook and Brigid Mary McDonnell of Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s (R-Tenn.) office

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: Friday’s Playbook PM misstated when an early screening of “Am I Racist?” took place in Alexandria. It was on Wednesday.

 

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