Experts shrug off BLS barbs

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Sep 09, 2024 View in browser   By Nick Niedzwiadek and Lawrence Ukenye Presented by SOURCEAMERICA® U.S. Department of Labor headquarters is seen in Washington, D.C., Aug. 8, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO QUICK FIX WATCHING THE WONKS: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is facing an unusual level of scrutiny of late, due to some recent slip-ups and an unexpectedly large downward revision to the jobs numbers for the 12 months ending in March. Congressional Republicans have seized on the softer-than-previously-known labor market, while House Education and the Workforce Chair Virginia Foxx and a group of GOP senators have sent letters calling on BLS to explain itself. At times, these critiques have veered conspiratorial — particularly from former President Donald Trump and excitable corners of Wall Street — a notion that BLS experts flatly reject. “People who are running around saying ‘this is some sort of political move by BLS,’ it is inconceivable,” William Beach, a senior fellow at the Economic Policy Innovation Center and BLS commissioner from 2019-2023. “It would be hard enough to do that with a group of 30 people, but thousands of people are working on this.” Another former BLS chief, Erica Groshen, concurred with that assessment while noting that these gauges are trickiest when the economy is shifting. “There is a tendency for revisions to be not as symmetrical around inflection points in the business cycle,” said Groshen, who served during former President Barack Obama’s second term. Conservative skepticism of the validity of jobs numbers dates back at least to the recovery from the Great Recession, leading to some linguistic contortions when those same reports favored Trump. Beach cited the uptick in immigration and a post-Covid change in employer survey response behavior as additional challenges for BLS’ monthly measurements. More employers reporting outside the initial response window creates the possibility of bigger swings when they do complete their submissions. According to BLS, the average response rate in 2020 was 73.5% at the first release of data. By 2023, it was down to 64.5%. Still, BLS’ reputation has been dented somewhat by the premature release of inflation data in May, and inadvertently giving several international firms August’s figures before they were publicly available, among other self-inflicted incidents. The New York Times has more on that here. A Labor Department spokesperson said those errors were due to technical issues and process breakdowns that it has addressed and referred the incidents to the agency’s inspector general for further review. The Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting, due to BLS’ data and other indicators, and it is possible it may have acted sooner had the initial jobs numbers been closer to the mark, though they know better than to take them as gospel. “The Fed is not dumb; they have some of the smartest labor economists in the world, and they are very aware of this risk and uncertainty,” said Ernie Tedeschi of the Yale Budget Lab. GOOD MORNING. It’s Monday, Sept. 9. Welcome back to Morning Shift, your go-to tipsheet on labor and employment-related immigration. Send feedback, tips and exclusives to nniedzwiadek@politico.com and lukenye@politico.com. Follow us on X at @NickNiedz and @Lawrence_Ukenye.   A message from SOURCEAMERICA®: From September 9-12, we’ll be on Capitol Hill advocating for disability employment during the 2024 SourceAmerica Grassroots Advocacy Conference. There, policy experts, nonprofit leaders, employees with disabilities, and their families will discuss the issues that affect employment opportunities for people with disabilities. Nonprofit leaders and self-advocates will then attend congressional meetings to help shape policies to create employment opportunities through federal contracting. LEARN MORE   ELECTION 2024 Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will meet for the first time at Tuesday's debate. | AP YOUR GUIDE FOR TOMORROW'S FACE-OFF: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will meet for the first time Tuesday night (isn’t that crazy!) and viewers should expect both candidates to pitch themselves as more pro-worker than the other. Here are some labor and immigration-related themes you can expect Trump and Harris to lean into during the debate. Giving workers a lift: Harris said she wants to expand the child tax credit and give first-time homebuyers $25,000. Trump, meanwhile, has said he wants to end taxes on tips for restaurant workers, a position the vice president later adopted. Tax policy experts have cast doubts on the idea of not taxing tips, warning it risks overshadowing other proposals for boosting workers’ pay and that the move could grow the federal budget deficit. Securing the border: You can also probably count on Trump tying the rise in undocumented immigration to Harris for being President Joe Biden’s “border czar,” when she was tasked with examining the root causes of migration. Harris has often tried to skewer Trump for his role in tanking a bipartisan Senate immigration proposal earlier this year, including during her acceptance speech at the DNC. Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. AROUND THE AGENCIES IT NEVER ENDS: Amazon is taking on the National Labor Relations Board in a new lawsuit that challenges the agency’s structure by alleging that it improperly interfered in a union election at one of its warehouses. The tech giant is requesting that the court halts administrative proceedings against the company while the case is litigated. Why it matters: The lawsuit mirrors a legal challenge brought forth by SpaceX, which also asserts that the structure of the agency is unconstitutional because NLRB members are shielded from removal by the president. Republicans and companies have routinely slammed the NLRB’s process for conducting union elections, but the Amazon lawsuit presents the agency with another powerful opponent that seeks to threaten its ability to function. NLRB spokesperson Kayla Blado said that the agency’s role under the National Labor Relations Act is constitutional and that suits like Amazon’s act as a “delay in justice.” More NLRB news: "Labor Board Gets $23 Million From Federal Fund for IT Revamp," from Bloomberg Law. Even more: "Biden to sign executive order bolstering labor standards for federally funded projects," from our Lawrence Ukenye. On the Hill SHUTDOWN SCARIES: House Republicans last week rolled out their plan for a continuing resolution that will fund the government through next March ahead of a looming Oct. 1 deadline, our Jordan Carney, Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes reports. The plan would largely hold current funding levels in place, including for labor-related agencies, while adding controversial provisions including requiring states to obtain proof of citizenship before allowing individuals to vote — a proposal that Democrats overwhelmingly oppose. GOP lawmakers at risk of losing their seats have already warned Speaker Mike Johnson that a shutdown could threaten their chances of getting reelected in November.   A message from SOURCEAMERICA®:   Unions NOT GOOD ENOUGH: Unions representing government employees are frustrated with Biden’s proposed 2 percent raise for civilian federal workers, arguing that the pay bump will not adequately keep pace with inflation, The Washington Post reported. “This below-market pay increase fails to reflect trends in the private sector, where wages and salaries have risen, and unemployment rates are low,” William Shackelford, president of the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association, told the Post. Context: The pay increase was smaller than the nearly 5 percent raise Biden proposed for military personnel and the 7 percent boost pushed by Democrats in Congress. More union news: “Boeing and union reach a labor deal, potentially averting a strike,” from CNBC. Even more: “Parker administration reaches contract agreement with union that fought return-to-office policy,” from The Philadelphia Inquirer. In the Workplace GOLDEN STATE SUIT: Republican state Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil’s former chief of staff filed a lawsuit accusing the lawmaker of sexual harassment and creating a hostile work environment, our Lara Korte reports. Chad Condit alleges that he was groomed by Alvarado-Gil and that the lawmaker pressured him to perform sexual acts and fired him when he resisted. The lawsuit also includes the California State Senate as Condit asserts that the upper chamber “blindly accepted” Alvarado-Gil’s actions. Alvarado-Gil’s attorney said that they plan to fight and win the lawsuit, which they described as “outlandish” and “without any corroboration of evidence.” The state Senate said it is discussing with its legal counsel on next steps and that it takes all complaints seriously. IN THE STATES WORKER CLASSIFICATION RULING: Massachusetts’ top court ruled unanimously last week that franchise operators at 7-Eleven stores cannot be considered employees, Reuters reported. The ruling was a win for businesses, who argued that classifying franchisees as employees would have threatened the franchise business model and hurt small business owners. 7-Eleven received support from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business groups. More immigration news: "Mayorkas: Texas’ immigration policies have wreaked havoc and disorder," from The Texas Tribune. WHAT WE'RE READING — "Weakening job market fuels pressure on Fed's Powell to cut rates," from our Victoria Guida. — "The Case for Eating Lunch With Your Colleagues," from The New York Times. — "Australia Gave People a Right to Log Off, and Bosses Are Unhappy," from Bloomberg. — “Why Canada’s progressive party just dumped Trudeau,” from our Kyle Duggan. THAT’S YOUR SHIFT!   A message from SOURCEAMERICA®: People with disabilities play an essential role in powering the workplace and our economy. This week, from September 9-12, the SourceAmerica Grassroots Advocacy Conference is providing a platform for employees with disabilities to share this message and their stories with key policymakers on Capitol Hill. Nonprofit leaders and self-advocates will then attend congressional meetings to help shape policies to create employment opportunities through federal contracting. LEARN MORE     Follow us on Twitter Nick Niedzwiadek @nickniedz Lawrence Ukenye @Lawrence_Ukenye   Follow us

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