Monday, September 9, 2024

How to think about the spending fight

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DRIVING THE DAY

Mike Johnson speaks during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol.

House Speaker Mike Johnson views the funding vote as an important messaging tool and negotiating lever for his party going into Election Day. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES are scheduled to attend a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony tomorrow honoring the 13 servicemembers who died in a suicide bombing outside the Kabul airport in 2021, two people familiar with their plans tell Playbook.

They will be the most senior Democratic officials to come face to face with the Gold Star families who lost loved ones that day since President JOE BIDEN attended a dignified transfer ceremony shortly after the deaths. Some of those family members recently made public videos blasting VP KAMALA HARRIS for her handling of the situation.

Tomorrow’s ceremony hosted by Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is part of an effort arranged by House Republicans this week meant to draw fresh attention to the Biden administration’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan. More below

MIND GAMES — Harris is doing her best to psych out DONALD TRUMP before tomorrow night’s debate, Meridith McGraw scoops this morning. She’s going up with an ad that features former Trump officials criticizing him, from MIKE PENCE to MARK MILLEY to JOHN BOLTON, and targeting it to national Fox News spots, West Palm Beach and Philly. Watch the ad, titled “The Best People”

THEY’RE BACK — After more than six weeks away, lawmakers return to Washington today with a spending fight already on their hands. Government funding expires three weeks from today, and a stopgap continuing resolution is basically the only thing keeping members in town as many itch to return to the campaign trail.

But notching a deal won’t be simple. Johnson’s opening bid extends current levels all the way until March and attaches the SAFE act, a bill requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. Congressional Democrats over the weekend panned the move.

“As I have said before, the only way to get things done is in a bipartisan way,” Schumer wrote yesterday in a Dear Colleague letter, calling Johnson’s demand “bluster” after previously accusing Johnson of flirting with a shutdown to cater to the MAGA right.

Despite all the posturing, take this prediction to the bank: We won’t see a shutdown ahead of Election Day. While the two parties appear to be at loggerheads, Republicans eager to hold on the House aren’t going to risk tipping the government into chaos just as early voting gets underway in many states. Democrats, meanwhile, have been privately surprised — even heartened — by Johnson’s opening offer.

WHAT REPUBLICANS ARE THINKING: Johnson and his leadership team knew Democrats would balk at their demands, of course, but securing them isn’t the strategic goal, multiple senior Republicans told us. Rather, Johnson views the vote as an important messaging tool and negotiating lever for his party going into Election Day.

— The messaging: Johnson wants to put Democrats on the defensive when it comes to what Republicans like to call “voting integrity.” While there’s no evidence that undocumented immigrants are flooding, or even trickling, to the polls — it’s already illegal for them to do so — the public largely supports the idea of requiring drivers’ licenses or other proof of citizenship to vote.

Johnson hinted at this thinking during his call with House Republicans last week, arguing that the conference should “show the country” where they stand on voting before Election Day. He pointedly said that he looks forward to Schumer explaining why he won’t allow the bill to have a vote.

What’s more, Republicans point out that five vulnerable House Democrats already voted for the SAVE Act earlier this year. If they vote the party line this time, expect Republicans to roast them back home as flip-floppers.

— The negotiating: If there’s anything Johnson (and most other Republicans) want to avoid, it’s a year-end omnibus. The Democratic-controlled Senate is widely expected to extend funding only into December with their own stopgap bill in hopes of summoning some of that old holiday-season magic.

But Johnson is intent on rolling back fiscal 2025 spending levels (albeit modestly) by unwinding the “side deal” KEVIN McCARTHY cut with Biden before he lost his gavel — and he knows he won’t be able to win that fight during the Christmas rush.

So one hope is that the month ends with a little horse-trading: House Republicans might ultimately swallow a CR without voting provisions — so long as it extends into 2025, giving Johnson a chance to get some backup in the Senate and White House.

— The leadership wrangling: Of course, there’s another big reason Johnson is heeding his right flank at the moment: The spending fight is his final big test before he asks his conference for another two years at the helm.

This morning, our colleagues Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney report on Johnson’s prospects for staying on, noting that they have brightened since he faced a failed motion-to-vacate vote back in May. Johnson has “stepped up his fundraising game” on behalf of members across the GOP’s ideological divides, they report, and he’s shored up support by putting also a slew of messaging bills on the floor in recent months.

Still, the right will be watching him closely this month, and he knows it: “He's going to look to see where the conservatives are, in my opinion, because the conservatives are always the one to threaten to kick him [out],” one senior Republican told Olivia and Jordain.

An important test comes tonight in the Rules Committee, which remains stacked with conservatives who could sink anything they don’t like. (One of them, Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.), announced last night he was against the CR, though he didn’t say how he’d vote in Rules.)

WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE THINKING: Don’t be fooled by the Democratic outrage over Johnson’s CR proposal. They’re actually watching with a bit of glee — assuming, of course, that he eventually drops his demand for the SAFE Act.

We’ve heard Dems express some pleasant surprise that Johnson is proposing six more months of funding at the same levels he negotiated this spring with Biden and Schumer, which conservatives hated when it originally passed. Some expected him to push for spending cuts ASAP; one even likened Johnson’s strategy to “waving the white flag.”

We’ve also heard some befuddlement. Republicans argue a March funding deadline would allow an incoming President Trump to put his stamp on government spending. But the way some Dems see it, an immediate funding fight would be akin to welcoming him back into office with a plate of broccoli — sucking up a bunch of political capital that Trump might never get back, only to inevitably cut a deal the GOP base will hate..

While the basic arc of the month is clear enough — the House passes its bill this week; the Senate sends it back without SAVE next week; a deal gets cut before the deadline — there is a significant complication: Democrats pointed out to us yesterday that a six-month “clean” CR would require tens of billions of dollars in what Hill wonks call “anomalies” — plus-ups to agency budgets to cover the rising costs of programs. They want to know: Will Johnson accept those?

The speaker, we’re told, will talk with his members about this later in the week — and see if they are willing to swallow anomalies to quite literally buy time.

Good Monday morning. Welcome back, members, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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CLIP AND SAVE — The Harris campaign last night finally launched a detailed policy page on its website, which lays out at least some stances in nearly 20 different arenas and contrasts them with “Trump’s Project 2025 Agenda.” More from WaPo

COVER STORIES — N.Y. Mag today has a special issue with double political covers, with Olivia Nuzzi interviewing Trump and Rebecca Traister diving into the pro-Harris grassroots. This moment stood out to us: Trump claims that MARK ZUCKERBERG called him and said, “There’s no way I can vote for a Democrat in this election.” (Meta responds that Zuckerberg hasn’t told anybody how he’ll vote.)

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — KID ROCK is headlining a “Red White & Rock” fundraiser with the Log Cabin Republicans in Nashville later this month, also featuring RICHARD GRENELL and KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE. The invite

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: ABC News hosts presidential debate in Philadelphia. Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island hold congressional primaries, the last of the election cycle. Biden hosts NCAA champion basketball teams at the White House. Former New York Gov. ANDREW CUOMO testifies before House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. … Wednesday: 23rd anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS attend memorial ceremonies in New York; Shanksville, Pennsylvania; and Arlington, Virginia. Congressional Black Caucus legislative conference begins in Washington. August CPI inflation numbers released. … Thursday: Biden delivers remarks commemorating the 30th anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act. Harris campaigns in North Carolina; running mate Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ campaigns in Michigan. Trump attends fundraiser in Los Angeles. … Friday: Biden hosts British PM KEIR STARMER at the White House for a bilateral meeting. Harris campaigns in Pennsylvania; Walz travels to Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump attends fundraiser in Woodside, California. … Saturday: Biden and Harris attend CBC Phoenix Awards gala at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center. Trump attends fundraiser in Salt Lake City.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. and take up judicial nominations, with procedural votes at 5:30 p.m.

The House will meet at noon.

3 things to watch …

  1. As the CR jockeying gets underway, House Republicans will also be moving a number of bills targeting China across the floor this week.  They include a bill from Rep. AUGUST PFLUGER (R-Texas) cracking down on China-linked “Confucius Institutes,” one from Rep. DAN NEWHOUSE (R-Wash.) requiring federal review of agricultural land sales to Chinese entities, and legislation from Rep. CAROL MILLER (R-W.Va.) targeting Chinese electric vehicles.
  2. As for the Senate, take a wild guess: It’s judges, judges, judges as they wait for the House to send their CR over. Tonight senators will vote on the confirmation of ADAM ABELSON as a district judge in Maryland; a vote on JEANNETTE VARGAS’ nomination to Southern District of New York is teed up for later in the week as Democrats continue to try and pump up Biden’s judicial nomination numbers.
  3. With the fight over cryptocurrency regulation heating up — and likely to stay hot for some time to come — the crypto industry is wrangling with one of its biggest threats, Eleanor Mueller writes: partisanship. Democratic enthusiasts are warning that “the industry is at risk of leaning too far right” as key players vocally back Trump. “Nearly a dozen crypto advocates familiar with the conflict said in interviews that the rising tension is creating new hurdles for the industry as it tries to advance a regulatory overhaul on Capitol Hill,” she reports.

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will return to the White House from Wilmington, Delaware. Biden will speak on the South Lawn at 5 p.m. to celebrate the Americans with Disabilities Act and mark Disability Pride Month.

On the trail

Harris is in Pittsburgh for debate prep. She’ll travel to Philadelphia in the late afternoon.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) speaks with reporters outside the U.S. Capitol Feb. 29, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) has led a years-long investigation over the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

PULLOUT FALLOUT — A major House Republican report on the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan slams the Biden administration for ignoring warnings, lying to the public, choosing appearances over security and committing outright “moral negligence,” as House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) put it on CBS’ “Face the Nation” yesterday. McCaul’s yearslong probe has yielded a nearly 250-page report that says U.S. officials painted too rosy a picture in the weeks leading up to the botched withdrawal, which included the attack that killed 13 U.S. service members and 169 Afghans, CBS’ Eleanor Watson, Caitlin Yilek and Kaia Hubbard report.

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation ZALMAY KHALILZAD come in for particular GOP opprobrium in the report. It argues that the State Department wasn’t prepared for worst-case scenarios and planning began too late — ultimately leaving some Afghan allies stranded and damaging U.S. national security interests in the long term. McCaul also alleged for the first time that then-acting U.S. Ambassador ROSS WILSON faked a negative Covid test to flee the country ahead of other embassy staff, Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke reports.

Though Republicans’ report is at pains to mention Harris way more than their investigation did previously, as Robbie Gramer and Joe Gould note, they also don’t turn up evidence of her having a direct role in the pullout plans, ABC’s Anne Flaherty and Chris Boccia write.

Democrats, in turn, sharply criticized the report. Panel ranking member GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) is putting out his memorandum that accuses the GOP of playing partisan politics and argues that the report is largely repackaging of information we already know. The White House called the report cherry-picked, inaccurate and biased. And Dems said the Trump administration bears a lot of blame for laying the groundwork for a rushed withdrawal and chaotic Afghanistan. More from CNN

2024 WATCH

PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - AUGUST 08: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at Mr. Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate on August 08, 2024, in Palm Beach, Florida. Polls currently show a close race between Trump and Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris.  (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Trump is rolling out the tactics he tends to use before any contest ahead of tomorrow's debate. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

UP FOR DEBATE — Ahead of tomorrow night’s big debate, Trump is rolling out the tactics he tends to use before any contest, Alex Isenstadt and Meridith McGraw report this morning: work the refs, allege bias, make baseless claims of cheating and undermine the system. He has repeatedly attacked host network ABC as unfair. In part, this is an attempt at expectations-setting, putting the bar low so he can clear it or blame the moderators otherwise (and maybe nudge the host into favorable treatment). Behind the scenes, Trump is also going over policy plans with his advisers, though in an informal manner.

For Harris, meanwhile, this is an especially important moment to step into the national spotlight, prove her presidential chops and take the fight directly to Trump for the first time, CNN’s Eric Bradner, Jeff Zeleny, Alayna Treene and Arit John report. Her intense debate camp in Pittsburgh has included studying Trump’s TV debates over the past three cycles, getting to know his policy positions and potential insults, and readying to pitch the country on moving past the Trump era. Following the debate (and Wednesday’s 9/11 commemorations), Harris and Walz will barnstorm swing states, the campaign said yesterday. More from the AP

More top reads:

 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

YOWZA — “Iraqi Banks Used U.S.-Created System to Funnel Funds to Iran,” by WSJ’s David Cloud: “New York Fed’s process to move Baghdad’s oil earnings lacked key money-laundering safeguards, resulting in illicit transfers that financed terrorist groups for years.”

VENEZUELA LATEST — For opponents of Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO, who say he has stolen the recent election, the next few months before his inauguration are a crucial period to stop him from holding onto power, Nahal Toosi reports from Bogotá, Colombia. But the options are limited for the U.S. and other allies of the opposition.

BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE — “Doubts grow in White House about presenting new Gaza deal terms,” by Axios’ Barak Ravid: “Biden, who is personally engaged in drawing the U.S. strategy, wants to continue pushing for a deal, but his advisors think a new proposal would go nowhere right now.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

FILE - A Google sign hangs over an entrance to the company's new building, Sept. 6, 2023, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)

The Justice Department today will begin what could be a historic bid to break up Google. | Peter Morgan, File/AP Photo

ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — In what may be the Biden administration’s final big antitrust battle against Big Tech, the Justice Department today will begin what could be a historic bid to break up Google, Josh Sisco previews. The trial kicking off in Alexandria, Virginia, centers on an argument from the feds (and several states) that Google has an unlawful monopoly over digital advertisements, and that the company needs to restructure or spin off part of itself to create more competition.

A decision in the case might not come until as late as next year, but this is nonetheless “a kind of policy capstone for the Biden administration,” which has been historically aggressive on antitrust, Josh writes. And the trial begins as Google is under serious regulatory pressure on several fronts: In the administration’s other big Google antitrust case, a federal judge last month found that the tech behemoth has an illegal monopoly on online search. Europe and several other countries are bearing down, too.

POLICY CORNER

PARITY IN THE USA — “Biden admin to require mental health coverage parity,” by Ben Leonard: “The Biden administration is finalizing a sweeping expansion of regulations that require insurers to cover mental health and addiction care on the same terms as other care.

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Chris Sununu might have saved a life.

Qin Gang has been found.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s former staffers have started a pro-Trump Make America Healthy Again super PAC.

Kelcy Warren might just take down Greenpeace USA.

IN MEMORIAM — Tom Squitieri, an award-winning journalist whose reporting from the frontlines of overseas war zones and the back rooms of American politics was marked by a focus on the human side of any news story, and who found a calling late in life as a nationally published poet, died on Sunday, Sept. 1 … Tom’s 16 years of reporting for USA Today earned him the White House Correspondents Association’s prestigious Raymond Clapper Memorial Award in 1993.” Full obituary

AND THE AWARD GOES TO — The Partnership for Public Service today is announcing this year’s winners of the Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medals, or “Sammies,” honoring the best civil servants in the federal government. The top winners are the Labor Department’s Nancy Alcantara, Shannon Rebolledo, Justin Uphold and Packers Sanitation Leads Team, who uncovered more than 100 children illegally working in meatpacking and ushered in major reforms. Other medalists include the Mine Safety and Health Administration’s Chris Mark (recently profiled in WaPo), NIST’s Marc Levitan and Long Phan, and the EPA’s Steve Calanog, Tara Fitzgerald and Pete Guria. Read more about all the winners

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Christopher Steele, the British intelligence officer of “Steele dossier” fame, is publishing a new book on Oct. 8, “Unredacted: Russia, Trump, and the Fight for Democracy.” Published by Mariner Books, “Unredacted” talks about Steele’s sources behind the dossier — and adds new information/intelligence about Russia that he has since collected. Russian President Vladimir Putin “is now desperate to have Donald Trump back in the White House,” he writes. “If Putin succeeds in helping Trump get reelected, I am convinced that the global political order will be utterly changed.” The cover

The Harris campaign is adding several new staffers to the running mate team, working with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz: Malik Haughton as political director (previously at the DNC), Peter Velz as director of special projects, Emily Soong as traveling press secretary (both previously at the Democratic National Convention), and DJ Ryan as director of advance. Gwen Walz’s team is also adding Stephen Groves as director of advance and trip director, Monique Flowers as senior travel aide, and Bridget Williams as director of scheduling and strategic planning.

Ian Talley has started a media advisory specializing in illicit finance. He spent more than two decades at the WSJ, where he covered international economics, energy geopolitics and illicit finance.

Ariel Zambelich has been named visuals editor at the Baltimore Banner. She most recently was a managing photo editor at the WSJ.

OUT AND ABOUT — The inaugural Middle East-America Dialogue (MEAD) Summit kicked off with its first day yesterday in D.C., with discussion ranging from regional security after Oct. 7 to addressing Iran. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was the headliner, and Saudi Ambassador Princess Reema Bandar Al-Saud was featured too. SPOTTED: Benny Gantz, Moroccan Ambassador Youssef Amrani, Bahraini Ambassador Abdulla bin Rashid Al Khalifa, Tom Nides, David Friedman, retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, Andrea Mitchell, Dan Senor and Laura Blumenfeld.

— SPOTTED at the private “E Street Lounge” at Nationals Park before the Bruce Springsteen concert Saturday night: Nils and Amy Lofgren, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Sarah Margon, Patrick Murphy, Jamie Kirchick and Josef Palermo, Kevin Walling and Alex Stroman, Marty Kady and Suz Redfearn, Eric and Liz Sayers, David Keller, Josh and Ali Rogin, David Corn and Matt Brooks.

MEDIA MOVE — James Grimaldi has been named the new executive editor of the National Catholic Reporter, WaPo’s Jeremy Barr reports this morning. The multiple Pulitzer-winning investigative reporter has most recently spent 12 years at the WSJ, and is a WaPo alum.

WEDDINGS — Tim Reitz, executive director of the House Freedom Caucus, and Dawn-Marie Sullivan, legislative director for Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) and a Ted Cruz alum, got married Aug. 31 at the Ritz-Carlton, St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. They met through mutual friends at Bullfeathers in early 2022. PicAnother pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Adam Weissmann, principal/owner at Underscore Strategies and a Steny Hoyer alum, and Rebecca Certner, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act coordinator at NOAA’s National Ocean Service, welcomed Shai Erez Certner-Weissmann on Aug. 25. He joins big brother Rami.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) … Reps. John Duarte (R-Calif.) and Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) … Matt Bai … WaPo’s Kara Voght and Robert Samuels ... HuffPost’s Jonathan CohnDavid Freedlander … CAP’s Glen Fukushima … AP’s Matt Lee … Cincinnati Mayor Aftab PurevalCherie Harder of the Trinity Forum … Rachel RizzoHenrique Ferreira of Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-N.J.) office ... Dan Brandt ... Ken LieberthalBridget Hagan of Blackstone … Aimee Steel Lubin of Holland & Knight … Brian Wommack … Breitbart’s Matt Boyle ... Michael HarperJ. Arthur BloomDwayne Carson ... former Reps. Glenn Nye (D-Va.) (5-0) and Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) … Katelyn Israelski ... Nawaid Ladak ... Vanessa Oblinger-Santos ... Diego Sánchez Gallardo ... Katharine FegleyWade Roberts of Rep. Mike Ezell’s (R-Miss.) office … Katelynn Vogt of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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