Monday, September 9, 2024

7 things to watch on the Hill in September

Presented by Citi: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Sep 09, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Eleanor Mueller

Presented by Citi

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QUICK FIX

Congress returns Monday to a full agenda on the economy and financial regulations.

Lawmakers have just three weeks in session until they hit the campaign trail — and a bevy of issues to tackle, on top of averting a government shutdown.

Here’s what’s on our radar:

1. Cryptocurrency purgatory 

Crypto lobbyists are watching closely to see if Senate Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabenow reschedules a committee vote on her proposal to overhaul how the industry is regulated. The Michigan Democrat scrapped her July plans after she was unable to win over ranking member John Boozman (R-Ark.).

Whether Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will be motivated to take it up is another story. A network of crypto super PACs, known as Fairshake, announced last month they would spend millions to try to unseat Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Indeed, Schumer did not mention any banking legislation in his latest Dear Colleague letter out Sunday.

2. FDIC scrutiny

Congress will ramp up its review of misconduct at the FDIC this month with the bank regulator's chairman, Martin Gruenberg, tentatively slated to testify before House Financial Services and Brown looking to get a vote on Gruenberg's replacement on the books, as first reported by your host.

Brown had initially floated taking up the nomination the last week of July. Yet a number of senators were absent — and committee rules prohibit members from casting tie-breaking votes via proxy.

3. China week

House Republicans have lined up floor votes this week on a host of bills intended to make the U.S. more competitive with China, including a handful out of Financial Services. Yet the current list does not include a compromise on how to target outbound U.S. investment to China, which has been a contentious issue among top Republicans including House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.).

House Rules meets today to prep the more controversial measures for the floor.

4. Gensler testimony

SEC Chair Gary Gensler is slated to testify before House Financial Services and Senate Banking the last week of September, as first reported by your host. Expect him to face questions on crypto, recent litigation — as well as potential plans for a second term.

Members could lay the groundwork at a House Financial Services hearing on the SEC’s crypto enforcement on Sept. 18.

5. Anti-ESG push

House Republicans have also told members to expect votes this month on bills targeting environmental and social governance and diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, as first reported by your host. That includes legislation that would limit the types of disclosures the SEC can compel and revamp its authority over shareholder proposals.

Expect to hear more about these issues at a House Financial Services hearing on ESG Tuesday.

6. Fed furor

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates at its September meeting — and you can bet GOP lawmakers will have something to say about it. Republicans including Rep. Andy Barr of Kentucky and Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota have said they would see any pre-election move by the central bank as politically motivated — and are likely to protest loudly if it happens, particularly if (when?) Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump does the same.

Members could also get an excuse to again weigh in on regulators’ proposed overhaul of capital requirements. The Brookings Institution will host Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr on Tuesday at 10 a.m. to discuss “next steps” for the effort, dubbed Basel III Endgame. The smart money is on Barr announcing that the regulators will repropose their rule-following months of back-and-forth.

7. Committee leadership 

Reps. Barr, French Hill (R-Ark.), Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) will use these three weeks to advance their bids to replace the retiring McHenry. Keep an eye on their fundraising — Barr hosted GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance for a fundraiser in Kentucky in August — and relationship-building with steering committee members.

ICYMI: Your host and our Zach Warmbrodt sat down with Barr and Hill over the recess to hear the latest on how they’re approaching the race.

IT’S MONDAY — And in the interest of surviving the rest of the month in one piece, may we suggest embracing the concept of fika? Our favorite Hill version is a midafternoon walk to the Cannon coffee cart with your favorite reporter friends. As always, direct your congressional gossip to emueller@politico.com and @eleanor_mueller, and get in touch with your regular host at ssutton@politico.com and @samjsutton.

A message from Citi:

The global healthcare system is in need of a checkup. Life expectancy in many western countries has stalled over the past 15 years, while healthcare costs are rising to potentially unsustainable levels. The new Citi GPS Report, Future of Healthcare, sheds light on key strategies that could revolutionize our healthcare system – such as restructuring healthcare delivery and harnessing data-integrated digital technology. Learn more here.

 
Driving the Day

Monday | Hill and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) speak at a Barclays’ conference at 8 a.m. (more on that below) … House Rules meets to prep China bills at 4 p.m. … The Senate votes at 5:30 p.m. … The House votes at 6:30 p.m.

Tuesday | Gensler participates in a virtual discussion with Peterson Institute for International Economics at 9:30 a.m. … House Financial Services holds a subcommittee hearing on decentralized finance at 10 a.m. … House Oversight holds a hearing on pandemic fraud at 10 a.m. … Barr participates in a discussion on Basel III at 10 a.m. … Former National Economic Council Director Brian Deese participates in a virtual discussion with Washington Post Live at 11:30 a.m. … House Financial Services holds a subcommittee hearing on ESG at 2 p.m. ... Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris debate at 9 p.m.

Wednesday | Labor Department releases its August CPI report at 8:30 a.m. … House Financial Services holds a subcommittee hearing on global governance at 10 a.m. … Senate Budget holds a hearing on Social Security at 10 a.m.

Thursday | Senate Banking holds a hearing on payment fraud at 10 a.m. … Senate Finance holds a hearing on tax reform at 10 a.m. … House Financial Services ranking member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) speaks at the Congressional Black Caucus’ annual conference at 12 and 3 p.m. … The Hudson Institute holds a hearing on the federal debt at 12 p.m. … House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) speaks at the Cato Institute’s conference on financial privacy at 2 p.m.

Friday | Waters speaks at the CBC’s annual conference at 2 p.m.

Election bettors, rejoice — It’s the dawn of a new age for political gambling in the US.

Wall Street regulators have spent years clamping down on financial markets that offer betting on elections. But a federal judge has thrown those efforts into limbo and cleared the way for political junkies, day traders and Wall Street giants to start legally wagering on American elections in a big way — just in time for November, our Declan Harty reports.

On Friday, U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb tossed out the CFTC’s rejection of an election-betting proposal from financial exchange startup Kalshi. The regulator is now looking to temporarily freeze the decision so it can review Cobb’s full ruling when it drops. But Kalshi is not likely to wait: The Silicon Valley-backed company is expected to try to launch its first election-betting markets in the coming days, a move that would cement political gambling’s place in the 2024 election.

“It’s huge,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said of Friday’s ruling. “This is finally giving these markets the legal status that they’ve always had.”

Day traders have already been piling up their bets on other platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket, despite the dubious legal standing around wagering on US elections. And journalists, cable TV pundits and even Trump have regularly turned to the markets for a real-time look at who the money says will win in November.

But Kalshi stands to become the first fully CFTC-regulated exchange to offer election betting to Americans, a pitch that could broaden the appeal for such markets well beyond the individual investors that dominate them today. Mansour argues that financial institutions could use the markets to hedge the risk that certain industries such as electric car makers will face new scrutiny after an election.

Yet Washington policymakers are wary — and Kalshi’s imminent plans are only stoking their concerns.

“When big bets are cast on elections and dark money can smear candidates, you have the perfect combination of factors that can destroy the integrity of our elections,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) said in a statement to Declan. “Imagine billionaires betting millions on which party controls the House or Senate and then spending big to destroy the candidates that could tip the balance against their bet.”

Crypto

Inside cryptocurrency’s civil war — The crypto industry’s left and right flanks are increasingly clashing over the best way to influence presidential and congressional campaigns — threatening hard-won bipartisan legislative momentum, your host reports.

Pro-crypto Democrats say the industry is at risk of leaning too far right as its leaders come out in force for Trump, who is promising policies that would boost digital asset firms. Their Republican counterparts say engaging with Harris and backing her party’s down-ballot candidates risks isolating long-time allies in the GOP, with little to no guarantee it will pay off.

The internal dispute has spilled into view as the industry’s nearly $170 million super PAC effort begins to spend on key races across the country and some crypto advocates seek inroads with Harris.

“Crypto advocates who are also reaching out to Harris don’t believe in putting all the eggs in one basket or in one party,” Crypto Council for Innovation CEO Sheila Warren said. “And I think that is seen as being courageous, or pointless, which is a sad state of affairs, but that’s where we are.”

More crypto news: Coinbase has worst week of the year as crypto stocks plummet, from CNBC.

 

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AROUND THE AGENCIES

Yellen teases plans — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Saturday told attendees of the Texas Tribune Festival that the economy is still strong, CNBC’s Rebecca Picciotto reports.

“We’re seeing less frenzy in terms of hiring and job openings, but we’re not seeing meaningful layoffs,” Yellen said. “I don’t see red lights flashing.”

At the same event, she said she was “probably done” when Biden leaves office, Reuters’ David Lawder reports — “the closest that Yellen, 78, has come to announcing her future plans.” She added that she hoped to meet soon with her Beijing counterpart, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

At the regulators

How low can you goA cooling labor market pressurizes Federal Reserve officials’ negotiations over whether the central bank should pursue a bigger rate cut next week, Bloomberg’s Catarina Saraiva reports.

Voters back the CFPB — A poll out today from bipartisan pollsters at Lake Research Partners and Chesapeake Beach Consulting found that most voters of both parties are on board with the CFPB and a number of its recent policies.

On the Hill

Hill, Torres at Barclays — For House Financial Services watchers: Hill and Torres are scheduled to kick off this week's Barclays Global Financial Services Conference in New York at 8 a.m., Zach reports.

They'll speak at a keynote breakfast ahead of two days of presentations by top bank executives. Hill is also set to chair a DeFi hearing on Tuesday morning.

House Republicans gird for spending showdown — House Speaker Mike Johnson on Friday rolled out his conference’s strategy for a high-stakes government funding fight, our Jordain Carney, Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes report.

More Hill news: ‘Go higher’: Bernie Sanders urges Harris to raise 28% capital gains tax rate proposal, from CNBC

In the markets

Wobble baby, wobble babyThe stock market rally is faltering in the face of challenges like last month’s rout and Friday’s jobs report, Bloomberg’s Jan-Patrick Barnert, Sagarika Jaisinghani, and Natalia Kniazhevich report.

ICYMI: ‘Flashing yellow lights’: US job market deteriorates as election looms, from our Victoria Guida.

At The Banks

New small business lending study — An MM reader flags a new academic study on lending discrimination that indicates minority borrowers fare better at small, community banks than large banks, Zach reports.

The analysis by Arthur Tran of Southern Oklahoma State University and Drew Winters of Texas Tech University used Federal Reserve small business credit survey data. They found that new minority borrowers receive a smaller percentage of the loan amount requested from big banks than new white borrowers, but that the differences become statistically insignificant when the request is to small banks. The researchers also raise doubts about the impact of the CFPB’s small business lending reporting rule, saying it may have little benefit.

A message from Citi:

Globally, the average person born today will live almost 30 years longer than someone born in 1950, perhaps one of humanity’s most astonishing achievements. But the global healthcare system’s vital signs have deteriorated recently – and in many western countries, life expectancy has stalled over the past 15 years.

A rapidly aging population is already driving healthcare system costs to potentially unsustainable levels, and in many advanced economies the cost of healthcare as a proportion of GDP has more than doubled in the past 30 years.

The new Citi GPS Report, Future of Healthcare, sheds light on key strategies that could revolutionize our healthcare system – such as reorganizing how healthcare is delivered, leveraging data-integrated digital technology, and addressing medical issues more proactively.

Learn more here.

 
 

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