Sunday, September 29, 2024

U.S. adjusts military posture as Mideast braces itself

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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

DEVASTATION — “At least 64 dead and millions without power after Helene’s deadly march across the Southeast,” by AP’s Stephen Smith, Kate Payne and Heather Hollingsworth

TREND WATCH — Among registered Latino voters, KAMALA HARRIS leads DONALD TRUMP, 54% to 40%, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll. That’s an improvement over JOE BIDEN’s numbers when he was the Democratic candidate, but that 14-point lead is “Democrats’ lowest level in the past four presidential cycles,” NBC’s Nicole Acevedo and Mark Murray write.

People check the site of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut's southern suburbs Sept. 29, 2024.

People investigate the site of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday, Sept. 29. | Hassan Ammar/AP

NASRALLAH FALLOUT — Yesterday, Israel announced that it killed Hezbollah chief HASAN NASRALLAH in its airstrikes in Lebanon. Today, the bombing continues, as Israel mounts what officials describe as an all-out effort to decapitate Hezbollah by eliminating its senior leaders.

“The command structure has been nearly decimated, [with] thousands of missiles and drones destroyed by Israel over the last few days,” JOHN KIRBY said this morning on ABC’s “This Week.” “There's no question that the Hezbollah today is not the Hezbollah that was even just a week ago.”

“Israel’s military said on Sunday that it had struck dozens of targets in Lebanon, including rocket launchers and buildings that it said were used for storing weapons, and announced that it had further targeted the group’s top leadership,” the Times reports. The strikes have killed at least 33 people, injured 195 more and contributed to the displacement of about a half-million people, per Lebanon’s health ministry. The death toll “is expected to rise with many still buried under rubble.”

The question today is what this means for the threat of a broader regional war in the Middle East, especially with Iran vowing retaliation for a strike that killed a deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. More from Reuters

A senior Biden administration official told Playbook this morning that they don’t believe Iran is interested in direct involvement in a fight with Israel.

But what about proxy attacks? We also spoke with THOMAS NIDES, the former U.S. ambassador to Israel, who warned about the risk of Iran attacking by using proxies, but cautioned that “Iran has to think twice before they do anything giving Israel’s posture, given America’s posture.”

Just what is that posture? We’re told that the Biden administration is strengthening the position of American military forces in the region to try and deter reprisal attacks.

Kirby spoke to that reality this morning. “We did deploy some additional forces into the region,” he said on ABC’s “This Week.” “We now have more force capability in the Middle East than we did in April, when Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones. So there is already a very robust military capability to defend ourselves and to help defend Israel if it comes to that.”

That posture by the U.S. allows for Israel “to be aggressive,” said Nides. “Our position on this has been unwavering. Would we like things to calm down? Damn well we would, but we’re not changing our force posture based on it.”

Interestingly, the administration believes that the latest round of attacks from Israel may actually get the two parties closer to a cease-fire. Now, according to the aforementioned senior administration official, Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU can credibly make the argument to the far-right portion of his coalition that the threat from Hezbollah is minimized to the point that a cease-fire could actually hold.

Related read: “Israel eyes Lebanon offensive with lessons from past invasions,” WaPo’s Loveday Morris

Good Sunday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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SUNDAY BEST …

— Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) on “Fox News Sunday,” on the death of Nasrallah: “Vice President Harris put out a forceful statement, as did President Biden, that I join in saying that Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, is a murderous terrorist who had American blood on his hands from the attack on the American marine barracks back in the 1980s. And he's killed thousands of innocent civilians — Lebanese, Syrian as well as Israeli.”

— Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “It's good Nasrallah is dead. He’s a terrorist. He's killed so many innocent people, and that needs to be addressed.”

— Rep. TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) on helping Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) prepare for his debate against Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ, on ABC’s “This Week”: “I spent the last month just going back all of his old stuff to get his phrases down, his mannerisms, that sort of thing. My job was to be able to play Tim Walz so JD Vance knows what he’s going to see. … Tim’s been a complete disaster in Minnesota, and what’s happened is he’s so good at being this folksy, nice, kind of down-to-earth guy, until people get to know him and his policies. … Once you get to know the real Tim Walz, he’s like GAVIN NEWSOM in a flannel shirt.”

— Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) on whether he’s concerned with Trump appearing not to say he wants Ukraine to win the war against Russia, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I’m not on Russia’s side, but unfortunately, the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement. And I want, and we want, and I believe Donald Trump wants, for Ukraine to have more leverage in that negotiation.”

— Sen. KATIE BRITT (R-Ala.) on Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s IVF vote, on “Fox News Sunday”: “Not one member of the Democratic Party came over to try to garner enough votes for 60. It was simply a show vote. It was never intended to pass. He would not allow us to have time for amendments or anything else. It’s Schumer's summer of scare tactics that he has moved into the fall.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will return to the White House at night from Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

On the trail

Trump will hold a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, at 2 p.m.

Harris will speak at a political event in LA at 7:15 p.m. Eastern and then travel to Las Vegas, where she’ll speak at a campaign event at 10:25 p.m. Eastern.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

Liz Cheney speaks.

Liz Cheney is one of the highest profile Republicans to support Kamala Harris as her campaign makes a concerted effort to reach across the aisle. | Andy Kropa/Invision via AP

1. COURTING ACROSS THE AISLE: On the heels of LIZ and DICK CHENEY’s recent backing of Harris, the campaign has “ramped up its outreach to Republicans — from the rank and file to some of the party’s most recognizable figures — in an effort to win votes and bolster its message that Trump represents a unique danger to American democracy,” WaPo’s Tyler Pager reports.

And despite Trump’s dismissal of the Republican defections’ overall impact on the race, “Harris’s aides believe that it is worth a methodical effort to court Republicans in a race that could turn on a few thousands votes in key states.” WaPo also notes that Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) and CHRIS CHRISTIE have popped up as targets for the Harris campaign, though neither has engaged and are not expected to at this point.

Another one: JEFF FLAKE, the former Arizona GOP senator and current U.S. ambassador to Turkey, is throwing his support behind Harris. “There is nothing more conservative than putting country over party,” Flake said in a statement posted on X.

2. SUITING UP: Republicans across the country have “unleashed a flurry of lawsuits challenging voting rules and practices ahead of the November elections, setting the stage for what could be a far larger and more contentious legal battle over the White House after Election Day,” NYT’s Danny Hakim, Alexandra Berzon and Nick Corasaniti report.

“The onslaught of litigation, much of it landing in recent weeks, includes nearly 90 lawsuits filed across the country by Republican groups this year. The legal push is already more than three times the number of lawsuits filed before Election Day in 2020, according to Democracy Docket, a Democratically aligned group that tracks election cases.”

3. WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS: In Nevada, a key swing state out West, both candidates face headwinds among voters that mirror their weaknesses across the country, WSJ’s Elizabeth Findell and Andrew Restuccia write in Las Vegas. For Harris, “there are signs her pitch hasn’t resonated” as she remains burdened by her ties to Biden. “Many voters here said Harris’s views seem fuzzy, and that they didn’t know what she stands for.” With Trump, “undecided voters in the state worried he would have few guardrails in a second term, and they expressed dismay about his indictments in high-profile legal cases.”

The ground game: “With just weeks to go before the election, GOP operatives privately worried that Harris’s ground forces are outperforming Republicans in get-out-the-vote efforts in Nevada, a dynamic that could tip the closely divided state toward Democrats. Voters and organizers from both parties said Democratic volunteers outnumber pro-Trump campaigners in the state’s battleground counties.”

4. MAN UP: “Trump and Harris battle over male voters — and what masculinity looks like in 2024,” by NBC’s Allan Smith: “One of the biggest fights playing out in this election is the battle for young, persuadable men of all races who appear to be less firmly in the Democratic column than they were just four years ago. For former President Donald Trump, that has meant appearing on podcasts and alternative media platforms popular with young men while tailoring his get-out-the-vote effort to some of these ‘low-propensity’ voters. For Vice President Kamala Harris, it has meant a shift in tone and message from recent Democratic campaigns, a targeted ad blitz and a running mate whose bid is very much wrapped up in the subtext of what it means to be masculine in the 2020s.”

 

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5. THE BEST OFFENSE IS A GOOD DEFENSE: Battleground Republicans are taking a surprising new tact on abortion, which has been thorny for the party in recent years, pouring money into ads that stake out defensive positions in an effort to neutralize Dems’ grasp on the issue, Ally Mutnick writes.

“About a dozen GOP candidates in competitive House races, particularly in blue-leaning districts, have already aired broadcast TV ads this fall outlining their position on abortion, according to data from AdImpact, a firm that tracks advertising, with that number likely to grow as the election nears. In 2022, only three such Republicans aired similar ads. And unlike the vague language about ‘women’s health care’ that some employed in the past, Republicans are taking a more direct and personal approach now, explicitly addressing the topic of abortion and saying they support access.”

Meanwhile: “‘A false sense of comfort’: Michigan Dems fight to keep voters’ attention on abortion,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein in Madison Heights, Michigan

6. MAKING SENSE OF THE ADAMS CASE: As the fallout from the indictment against NYC Mayor ERIC ADAMS continues to play out, NYT’s Hurubie Meko, Jan Ransom and Michael Rothfeld take a stepback look at the brass tacks of the sticky situation for a once-rising star in Democratic politics: “It is in some ways a straightforward case that draws on what appears to be solid evidence. But it also contains potential pitfalls that make it seem likely that the prosecutors will seek to bring additional charges in the weeks or months to come, according to interviews with a dozen former federal prosecutors, defense lawyers and law professors who reviewed the indictment.”

The latest turn of the screw: “Adams aide — and a close personal friend — pushed city officials to hire tech firm,” by Joe Anuta, Sally Goldenberg and Maya Kaufman

7. CALL TO ACTION: In Arizona, Democratic officials got on a call this month to talk about an “urgent” and “dire” situation after learning that tens of thousands of voters in the state were registered to vote without proof of citizenship due to a glitch in the system. “Changing the voting status of these Arizonans risked disenfranchising legitimate voters six weeks before the election. Letting them vote as they had in the past could violate the law,” WaPo’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Patrick Marley report.

“Even though the problem predated these officials by 20 years, it was on them to fix. And though it affected only state and local races, not the presidential or Senate elections, they knew after four years of attacks on the state’s election systems that no matter what they did, critics would have a ready-made issue to seize on if they didn’t like the outcome in November.”

8. YOU’VE GOT MAIL: “Conservative Christians were skeptical of mail-in ballots. Now they are gathering them in churches,” by AP’s Deepa Bharath: “Leading conservative figures CHARLIE KIRK and Republican National Committee co-chair LARA TRUMP have called on Christians and conservatives to collect ballots. Megachurches like Calvary Chapel Chino Hills in Southern California are leading the charge, urging – even training – congregations to collect ballots. They praise it as a valuable tool to raise voter turnout and elect candidates who align with their views on issues such as abortion, transgender rights and immigration.”

9. POSTCARD FROM TOKYO: “What Japan’s New Prime Minister Means for the US,” by Matt Kaminski in Tokyo: “Japan is the linchpin of U.S. efforts to contain and deter China in East Asia, and has been one of the Biden administration’s foreign policy success stories. Even as he became ensnared in some domestic economic and political troubles, [SHIGERU ISHIBA] thrived on the foreign stage and was an easy and appreciated partner. He went in lockstep with Washington to sanction Russia after its invasion of Ukraine — a turning point for Asian security as well — and to limit China’s access to semiconductors. Ishiba, who formally takes power on Tuesday, will be a different and potentially unstraightforward Japanese leader to work with.”

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Maya Rudolph, Andy Samberg and Dana Carvey returned to SNL for some 2024 portrayals. Samberg, Carvey and Jim Gaffigan will be regulars this season.

Brian Williams is in talks to host an election-night special on Amazon.

Donald Trump took in the UGA-Bama thriller with Katie Britt, Tommy Tuberville, Kid Rock, Herschel Walker and Hank Williams Jr.

Tim Walz was on hand for Minnesota’s game at Michigan’s Big House.

TRANSITION — Rachel Merker is joining Paragon Government Relations as a senior associate working on the health and human services portfolio. She previously was legislative director for human services and education/veterans and military services for the National Association of Counties.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NASA Administrator Bill NelsonLarry Burton of Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R-Alaska) office … David NatherSalena Zito Anton VuljajLiz Sidoti … CBS’ Tory CoughlanStephen Parker … POLITICO’s Ryan Hutchins, Jade-Snow Joachim and Lucas Morgan … Apple News’ Marissa Martinez … Insider’s Oma SeddiqRiley Swinehart … Finn Partners’ Scott Widmeyer and Jessica Ross … NBC’s Emma BarnettRyann DuRant of the Senate Banking Committee … Shawn Pasternak of S-3 Group … Brian Shankman Kevin Pérez-Allen of United States of Care … USAID’s Elvir Klempic … Stepfamily Solutions’ Cameron NormandPaul Bock … NDRC’s Kelly Ward BurtonAviva Rosenthal of the Smithsonian Institution … Precision Strategies’ Laura Gaffey ... Ashley Bryant Bailey … former Rep. Max Sandlin (D-Texas) … former Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) … Melissa DeRosa Will Saletan Robbie Kaplan Marisa Salemme of Senate Finance Committee Dems… Sandra Sobieraj Westfall Lisa Osborne Ross

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