Saturday, August 24, 2024

What we learned in Chicago

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Aug 24, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade

Presented by 

USAFacts

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

COUNTDOWN — The first mail ballots of the 2024 presidential election go out in just 13 days, the AP reminds us.

KENNEDY AGONISTES — In Arizona yesterday, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. endorsed DONALD TRUMP’s campaign — a move which, as Brittany Gibson and Jessica Piper write, “will add yet another twist to the already chaotic 2024 presidential race. Kennedy’s unorthodox views drew support from Democrats and Republicans. Both parties worried that he would be the biggest electoral spoiler in decades.”

Lacking “a realistic path to an electoral victory,” Kennedy announced that he is “not terminating my campaign,” but rather “simply suspending it.” His name will still appear on the ballot in many states, just not in 10 or so that are closely contested between Trump and VP KAMALA HARRIS.

How will this affect the race? Candidly, it’s unclear at this moment, as Charlie Mahtesian writes for The Nightly.

“Democrats insist RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump changes nothing. ‘Polls show the handful of voters who still support RFK Jr. are splitting between Harris and Trump, and election analysts agree that the impact of his exit would be negligible by Election Day,’ read a DNC memo released today in advance of Kennedy’s press conference. …

“As to the question of where Kennedy’s remaining supporters will land in the wake of his Trump endorsement, that answer remains murky as well. Pew Research’s analysis reports that Kennedy’s supporters are far less motivated to vote at all, compared to Trump and Harris supporters.”

There is at least one group that is peeved, if not entirely surprised, by the endorsement: the Kennedy family itself. “Never been less surprised in my life,” said JOHN F. KENNEDY’s grandson, JACK SCHLOSSBERG. “Been saying it for over a year — RFK Jr. is for sale, works for Trump. Bedfellows and loving it.” Five of RFK Jr.’s siblings released a statement that read, in part, that the endorsement of Trump is “a betrayal of the values our father and our family hold most dear. It is a sad ending to a sad story.”

Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to accept the Democratic presidential nomination during the last night of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago on Aug. 22, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

VP Kamala Harris has a lot of room to maneuver ideologically. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

WHAT WE LEARNED IN CHICAGO — We found Chicago a bit of a blur. Logistically, it was complicated to get around. Sometimes reporters were inexplicably barred from entering the arena during key speeches. But a lot happened, and it was sometimes difficult to wrap your head around it in real time. Tons of top Democrats did newsy interviews. The power and influence of the Clinton, Obama and Biden franchises that have dominated Democratic politics for over 30 years seemed to shift over the four days. And something genuinely new was born with the Harris-Walz ticket. In sifting through the news this morning, we detected a few throughlines that are worth emphasizing that might help you understand the final sprint:

— Harris has a lot of room to maneuver ideologically. The left is giving Harris a break:

  • Green groups are going easy on Harris, notes Zack Colman. “We have to defeat Donald Trump,” said BRETT HARTL, chief political strategist with the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund. “We don’t want to sabotage her campaign for no valid reason.” And, per Blanca Begert, “California climate crusaders trickling back into the state today after attending the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week are unbothered by the fact that their presidential candidate barely talked about climate change.”
  • The moderation in defense of defeating Trump is being embraced down ballot, notes Daniella Diaz, at least on immigration.
  • In a move that did not receive much attention, the Democrats removed any mention of the death penalty from their party platform. “This year’s platform marks the first time since 2004 the platform has not mentioned the death penalty (the 2008 and 2012 platforms called for making the punishment less arbitrary),” noted HuffPost’s Jessica Schulberg.
 

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— Policy wonks are not driving either campaign. The WSJ captures how obvious that is after two conventions where policy details were hard to come by.

“This isn’t a policy-paper election,” write Aaron Zitner and Andrew Restuccia, noting that Harris “has in her brief campaign offered a set of ideas and impulses about the course she would pursue as president, but with less detail than many candidates have provided in the past,” while Trump “also has been scant with details.”

In what is now a familiar vein of reporting, NYT’s Madeleine Ngo and Ben Casselman write, “The Democratic nominee says she wants to make raising a family more affordable. But she has provided few details on her proposals.”

— President JOE BIDEN’s messaging strategists are no longer in charge. The tweaks by Harris to framing Biden first unveiled in 2019 were both subtle and overt.

  • “Rather than focusing on the existential threat a second Trump term could pose to the country’s foundational institutions and traditions,” the AP notes, “she is expanding Democrats’ definition of what’s at stake in this election: It’s about preserving personal freedoms.”

— The Democrats’ successful convention might shock Trump out of his recent stupor —  or at least his aides hope so.

“Donald Trump is finally recognizing he’s at risk of losing the election unless he makes some changes,” Natalie Allison and Meridith McGraw write. They add that “after a month of Harris’ glistening poll numbers and positive news coverage of her candidacy, Trump and his team are fretting. His allies have been blanketing the airwaves calling for him to stop his obsession over crowd sizes and personal attacks on Harris and focus instead on policy and the vice president’s record.”

A few data points that he’s listening to:

  • His advisers have reached out to Gov. BRIAN KEMP of Georgia, a state suddenly in play for Harris, who will visit it on Wednesday. Republicans have been distraught about Trump’s attacks on the popular GOP governor of a state Trump must win and cheered the new tone.
  • Trump said he would not enforce the Comstock Act to ban mail delivery of abortion pills and wrote that a second Trump term “will be great for women and their reproductive rights.”

NYT’s Maureen Dowd says, “Trump is flummoxed about how to counter Kamala Harris” and “turning pea green with envy.” WaPo’s Dan Balz thinks Trump is still struggling mightily: “the former president is in a box, and it’s not clear whether he knows what to do.”

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden and Harris have nothing on their public schedules.

 

CHECK OUT WHAT YOU MISSED IN CHICAGO!

On Thursday, POLITICO and Bayer convened four conversations at the CNN-POLITICO Grill at the DNC. The program featured Bayer’s Senior Vice President, Head of Crop Science and Sustainability Communications, Jessica Christiansen, as well as conversations with Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL), and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) about agriculture, food policy and how these issues will impact the November election. CATCH UP HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

FILE - Special counsel Jack Smith speaks to the media about an indictment of former President Donald Trump, Aug. 1, 2023, in Washington. The federal judge presiding over Trump's classified documents prosecution is hearing arguments Monday, June 24, 2024, on whether to bar the former president from public comments that prosecutors say could endanger the lives of FBI agents working on the case. Smith's team says the restrictions are necessary in   light of Trump's false comments that the FBI agents who searched his Mar-a-Lago estate were out to kill him and his family. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

Special counsel Jack Smith’s federal cases against Donald Trump cost another $6.6 million in the latest disclosures. | J. Scott Applewhite, File/AP Photo

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. JACK SMITH LATEST: Special counsel JACK SMITH is not planning to ask yet for a significant hearing, which could have amounted to a pre-election “mini-trial,” in the federal criminal election subversion case against Trump, Bloomberg’s Chris Strohm reports. Rather, Smith’s office is working behind the scenes to keep the prosecution alive following the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity, and they may not want to weaken their hand by publicizing their evidence yet. It’s nonetheless a political victory for Trump, who will avoid having evidence in the headlines before November alleging that he tried to undermine democracy.

In the newest financial disclosures, the Justice Department revealed that Smith’s federal cases against Trump cost $6.6 million from October to March, per WaPo’s David Nakamura.

2. KNOWING TIM WALZ: “Tim Walz’s upbringing in rural Nebraska seemed idyllic. Then came tragedy,” by WaPo’s Michael Kranish in Valentine: “Walz has often spoken of his small-town upbringing … But those speeches have rarely captured the depth of the challenge Walz faced, according to classmates and family members, as his teenage years were upended and his father’s illness plunged his family into medical debt and led Walz into the Army National Guard. Walz has said the events fostered his views on life and death, underscored the obligations of a community to help those in need, and ultimately convinced him to get into politics.”

3. THE KURSK CONUNDRUM: Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russian territory is posing some tricky questions for its backers in Washington. Kyiv said that it had used glide bombs sent by the U.S. to strike Russian forces, AP’s Hanna Arhirova and Vanessa Gera report. And Ukraine is now mounting a new diplomatic effort to get the U.S. to allow Ukraine to use American long-range weapons inside Russia, Paul McLeary and Erin Banco report.

Despite Ukraine’s unexpected recent success, though, the White House remains loath to green-light a step that they worry could invite further escalation. At the same time, the administration is debating whether it will send military aid to help Ukraine hold its sliver of Russia, after mostly focusing on assisting Ukraine’s defensive efforts thus far, WaPo’s Karen DeYoung, Alex Horton and Isabelle Khurshudyan report.

4. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: “In Critical Border District, Republican Pairs Immigrant Story With Tough Stance,” by NYT’s Robert Jimison in Tucson, Arizona: “As he spoke about translating for his parents during school conferences and weekends spent washing cars to earn extra money to help support his family, [Rep. JUAN] CISCOMANI made few mentions of the fact that he is a Republican … The task has grown more complicated now that Mr. Ciscomani has a record to defend, including voting for an immigration crackdown measure that Republicans pushed through the House last year … and opposing a bipartisan bill that would have imposed tough new border enforcement policies and steered billions to funding them.”

5. BIDEN VS. THE CONSERVATIVE JUDICIARY: A pair of new federal rulings yesterday delivered losses to the Biden administration, as Republican-led states and business groups continue finding success challenging his policies in the court. A Louisiana judge blocked the EPA’s efforts to protect people of color from pollution by leaning on the 1964 Civil Rights Act, per The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate’s Mark Schleifstein. And the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down the Labor Department’s move to raise tipped workers’ wages — with the judges, notably, citing the Supreme Court’s axing of Chevron deference, Reuters’ Nate Raymond reports.

Up next: Texas led a coalition of red states in suing yesterday to halt the Biden administration’s new program giving undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens a pathway to legal status, AP’s Gisela Salomon and Valerie Gonzalez report.

6. HACK ATTACK: The group of Iranian hackers who allegedly tried to breach the Trump and Biden campaigns also went after the WhatsApp accounts of people linked to both men, Meta said yesterday. It was part of a broader campaign targeting officials in several countries. And NBC’s Kevin Collier scooped that this group also tried to get into Utah government agencies, including its oil and gas data, from March 2023 to March 2024. Reuters’ Christopher Bing and Gram Slattery have a fascinating look into the team, called APT42 or CharmingKitten, which “is known for placing surveillance software on the mobile phones of its victims, enabling them to record calls, steal texts and silently turn on cameras and microphones.”

7. STRUGGLING FOR CEASE-FIRES: Ten days of U.S.-led negotiations to try to land a cease-fire in the Sudan war wrapped up yesterday without anything close to a solution, as Sudan’s military refused to even attend the talks, NYT’s Declan Walsh reports from Villars-sur-Ollon, Switzerland. They did strike a deal to get more food and medicine to desperate Sudanese, though.

In the Israel-Hamas war, progress has proven elusive too, though Hamas said it would send representatives to Cairo today for the talks convened by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt, per NYT’s Erika Solomon and Aaron Boxerman. The mediators are trying to pave the way for a summit next week, and Biden spoke yesterday with the Qatari and Egyptian leaders, though Israeli and Hamas combatants themselves have sounded less optimistic.

 

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8. THE LAST ABORTION REFERENDUMS: “Nebraska voters will weigh in on conflicting abortion measures this election,” by the Omaha World-Herald’s Martha Stoddard in Lincoln: “The first initiative seeks to amend the Nebraska Constitution to protect the right to abortion up until fetal viability … The second initiative would amend the state constitution to ban abortions during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy.”

9. CLASSROOM MEGATREND: “Are Republicans losing the culture wars?” by Juan Perez Jr. and Andrew Atterbury: “School board candidates backed by Moms for Liberty, a conservative vanguard whose members popularized restrictions on classroom library books, are losing elections in Florida and some swing states. Republican leaders who rallied against critical race theory and LGBTQ+ issues recently faced recalls in red pockets of California. And in the presidential race, Democrats are playing offense.”

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 16 funnies

A political cartoon is pictured.

Rick McKee - caglecartoons.com

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

“Losing Your Job Used to Be Shameful. Now It’s a Whole Identity,” by Bloomberg’s Jo Constantz: “There’s a whole class of ‘layoff influencers’ now, as more people open up — maybe too much — about getting let go.”

“‘I Cannot Understand Putin’s Hold on Trump,’” by H.R. McMaster in the WSJ: “In an exclusive excerpt from his new memoir, H.R. McMaster details the clashes over Russia that led President Trump to fire him as national security adviser.”

“The Thin Purple Line,” by Jasper Craven for Harper’s: “The dubious rise of the private-security industry.”

“The Cult In the Forest,” by Alexis Okeowo for the New Yorker: “A pastor led his followers into the woods. Hundreds have since been found dead.”

“Strange and wondrous creatures: plankton and the origins of life on Earth,” by Ferris Jabr for The Guardian: “Without plankton, the modern ocean ecosystem — the very idea of the ocean as we understand it — would collapse. Earth would have no complex life of any kind.”

“In Kosovo, Techno Is a Symbol of Resilience,” by Lale Arikoglu for Condé Nast Traveler: “Long a sacred space for catharsis and healing, the smoke-filled dance floors of Pristina have become the backdrop to a changing country.”

“What Was It Like to Be a Dinosaur?” by Amy Balanoff and Daniel Ksepka for Scientific American: “New fossils and analytical tools provide unprecedented insights into dinosaur sensory perception.”

“Has Peter Attia Found The Fountain of Youth?” by Nick Heil for Outside: “The longevity influencer, doctor, and bestselling author wants to change the way we take care of ourselves. Does it work?”

 

DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out of the Alaska House race, helping the GOP consolidate.

Steve Bannon is headed for another criminal trial when he gets out of jail.

Tim Sheehy is facing more public lands questions.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador isn’t happy about Ken Salazar’s democracy concerns.

George Helmy, who’ll be new in the Senate, is also very new to being a Democrat.

Anthony Fauci was hospitalized with West Nile virus, but is out now.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Hotties for Harris party Tuesday night at Moonlight Studios, with a focus on the content creators at the Democratic National Convention: Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), Deja Foxx, Annie Wu Henry, Liz Plank, Kalen Allen, Ky Polanco, Ben Shapiro, Astead Herndon, Sean Manning, Makena Kelly, Camaron Stevenson, Lily Joy, James Hurley, Kwasi Asare, Tamia Fowlkes, Anand Giridharadas, Lolo Spencer, Amani, Amber Tamblyn, Taylor Lorenz, David Hogg and Walter Masterson.

TRANSITION — Carrie Healey is now a program lead/director with Purple Strategies’ client and campaign expertise group. She previously was senior director of media relations and external comms at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) … Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) … Karoline Leavitt … WaPo’s Jacob Bogage Mike HuckabeeDavid Gregory … CBS’ Major GarrettTodd Harris of Something Else Strategies … David Molina of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics … New Mexico GOP Chair Steve PearceRicki SeidmanBetsy Wright HawkingsSeyward Darby of The Atavist Magazine … Matt McDonald of Spectator USA … The New Yorker’s Adam GopnikNatalie Strom of Edelman … Justin Roth Geo Saba Brooke BarkerErik BrydgesEmily Cherniack of New Politics … Michael MoynihanPam CoulterMeagan Shepherd of Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) office … Dabney Hegg … former Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) … Abbie McDonough … former Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas) … Errol Louis Harry Rhoads of the Washington Speaker Bureau … Nick DentonElizabeth Cutler

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Colorado Gov. Jared Polis … Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Panel: Michael Allen, Francesca Chambers, Richard Fowler and Mollie Hemingway.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) … Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Panel: Cornell Belcher, Amna Nawaz, Marc Short and Amy Walter.

CNN “Inside Politics Sunday”: Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) … Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Panel: Molly Ball, Cleve Wootson, Jeff Mason, Marianna Sotomayor and Celinda Lake.

Univision “Al Punto con Jorge Ramos”: Bob Menendez … HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra … Florida state Rep. Juan Porras … Alejandra Gómez, Leo Murrieta and Silvina Alarcón … Rep. Chuy García (D-Ill.) … Enrique Rodríguez.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt … Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) … Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) … retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster … Scott Gottlieb.

ABC “This Week”: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) … Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Rachael Bade and Jonathan Martin.

NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Hannah Muldavin … Kari Lake … Tom Daschle. Panel: Michael Warren, Kellie Meyer, Tia Mitchell and Domenico Montanaro.

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) … Joe Walsh … Gloria Avent-Kindred.

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Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated California Democrat Laphonza Butler’s title. She is a senator.

 

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