TWO JOHNS AND A RICK As the November elections near, so does the battle to succeed outgoing GOP Leader Mitch McConnell. We checked in with Senate Republicans on how that contest is going before they left town last week. The verdict? Nobody has it locked up — yet. Interviews with more than a dozen GOP senators in recent weeks cast the race between John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Thune (R-S.D.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) as wholly undecided. Among the factors making senators hesitant to openly endorse a candidate: more candidates might still hop in the race; members want to see how the Senate elections shake out; and they want to see who the president will be come January. Still, with months of courting underway, senators told us they don’t yet see an obvious runaway candidate. “They're all serious people. It's not like there's a one-off or a gadfly that's not going to get votes,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said. “They're all going to be people in double-digit numbers.” “It's very wide open. It’s very fluid,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. Winning the secret-ballot GOP leadership vote — which is expected to occur in the weeks after the November elections — will require willing over a majority of the conference. That means there could be multiple rounds of voting, with the lowest vote-getter dropping out until one senator garners sufficient support. With multiple candidates in the race splitting the vote — and ideological factions of the conference split on what they want from a leader — a number of GOP senators told us they think it’s unlikely the election is settled on the first ballot. One Senate Republican, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly describe the race, suspects that “[Thune] has more votes in his whip tally — more firm votes — than anybody else.” Still, this senator said, Thune isn’t yet “that close” to crossing the majority threshold needed to win the role of leader. Countered Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), one of two senators to publicly endorse the South Dakotan: “There's still a lot of room, but I think at this point, it's definitely Thune’s to lose.” But other senators told us they’re taking their time, meeting with the candidates and weighing their options. “I'm looking at John Cornyn and John Thune, but I've not chosen between the two of them,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “I think a lot of people honestly are having conversations with people who are running and trying to get a feel for it,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). “I don't know how it gets into focus really until the fall.” As for the other candidates who might hop in, the window is closing. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the NRSC chair, was the subject of rampant speculation earlier this year that former President Donald Trump might back him if Republicans have a good Election Night. But our colleague Jonathan Martin recently reported that Daines may back Thune instead in exchange for a new role in leadership. Another subject of the rumor mill — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) — told us a leader run has “never ever crossed my mind” and praised Scott as his “home state colleague, and I think he would be a very good leader.” Stopping short of an endorsement, Rubio also praised Thune and Cornyn: “We’re blessed to have really good people. They’re all great.” The real X factor, however, is the potentially large corps of new Republican senators who might be joining the conference after the election. Between retirements and competitive races, there might be as many as 11 new faces if the GOP can run the table in November. As Kennedy put it: “I think it’s going to take us a while to work it out.” — Ursula Perano and Jordain Carney GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. We’re wishing safe travels to all of our readers who are out and about this August recess — and hope that Tropical Storm Debby stays out of your way.
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