News: Cori Bush loses, and other big results from a busy primary night

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Cori Bush loses, and other big results from a busy primary night

Aug 07, 2024

TOP LINE

Another incumbent bit the dust on Tuesday.

Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) became the fourth member of Congress — and the second member of the progressive Squad — to lose a primary election this year. Her race in Missouri's 1st District, a safe Democratic seat, drew millions of dollars in spending, largely driven by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has targeted candidates it deems as not sufficiently pro-Israel.

Cori Bush greets voters.

Cori Bush greets voters during a visit at Carondolet Branch Library on Aug. 6, 2024 in St Louis, Missouri. | Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

Bush, like the other incumbents who have fallen to non-incumbent challengers this cycle, had made key missteps that left them in political peril before the onslaught of outside spending arrived.

Elsewhere on Tuesday, other vulnerable incumbents managed to hang on. And the latest slate of battleground races is now set.

Here’s what happened last night in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington:

— KS-02: Former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022, secured the GOP nomination to succeed outgoing Rep. Jake LaTurner, all but guaranteeing a win in the fall for this deep-red seat.

Former Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda, who was in Congress for one term, is also looking for a comeback, but she’ll be a significant underdog.

— KS-03: Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids will face off against Republican Prasanth Reddy, a physician who has the backing of Speaker Mike Johnson and survived a closer-than-expected primary. President Joe Biden won this seat by around 5 points in 2020.

— MI-Sen: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers clinched their respective nominations for this battleground election to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin enters the general election with a hefty fundraising advantage: She had more than 3 times as much on hand compared to Rogers — $8.7 million to $2.5 million — as of mid-July.

— MI-03: Attorney Paul Hudson will take on freshman Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten in this West Michigan seat, which Biden won by around 9 points in 2020.

— MI-07: Former Democratic state Sen. Curtis Hertel and 2022 Republican nominee Tom Barrett, who were uncontested in their respective primaries, will face off in the fall. In 2020, Biden narrowly won this seat, which Slotkin is leaving to run for Senate.

— MI-08: Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, outgoing Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee's preferred candidate, will compete in November against Paul Junge, who lost in the general election for this seat two years ago.

— MI-10: There's a rematch in this battleground, where the matchup is between Republican Rep. John James and Carl Marlinga. Marlinga narrowly lost to James in the midterms.

— MI-13: Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar, an Indian-American lawmaker representing a predominantly Black district based in Detroit, won his primary bid. It was a surprisingly close race over Detroit City Council member Mary Waters, who is Black: A more serious primary challenger ultimately didn’t qualify for the ballot, and Thanedar dramatically outspent Waters.

— MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for Senate in 2022, won his party’s primary this time around to face Republican Sen. Josh Hawley.

— MO-Gov: Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, who had the support of term-limited Gov. Mike Parson, won the contentious GOP primary. Former President Donald Trump hedged his bets in this race, issuing a triple endorsement for Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and state Sen. Bill Eigel.

State House Minority Leader Crystal Quade won the Democratic nomination, but she'll face an uphill climb in this red state come November.

— MO-01: Bush lost to Wesley Bell, a St. Louis County prosecutor who leaned into his role during the campaign. Bell faces a clear path to victory in the fall.

— MO-03: Despite heavy outside spending looking to block him, former state Sen. Bob Onder, who was backed by Trump, won the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in this deep red seat. He defeated Luetkemeyer-backed Kurt Schaefer, also a former state legislator.

— WA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell, who’s seeking a fifth term, will be fending off a challenge from Republican Raul Garcia, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2020 (and briefly this year).

— WA-Gov: Democratic state Attorney General Bob Ferguson will face former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert in the race to replace retiring Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee.

— WA-03: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, just one of a handful of Democrats in seats that Trump won in 2020, will take part in a rematch against Joe Kent, who narrowly lost to her in the midterms.

— WA-04: Trump sought to enact revenge on Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of the last two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump left in the House. Trump endorsed former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler earlier this cycle, but tacked on an eleventh-hour endorsement for Tiffany Smiley, the party’s unsuccessful 2022 Senate candidate. Sessler and Newhouse were on track as of early Wednesday morning to advance to the general election, but the race remains uncalled.

— WA-05: Former Republican state Sen. Michael Baumgartner advanced to the general election to replace retiring GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in this safe red seat. HIs opponent has yet to be determined as of early Wednesday morning.

— WA-06: As of early Wednesday morning, the race for this open deep blue district has yet to be called. Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall is in the lead, followed by Republican Drew MacEwen and Democrat Hilary Franz.

— WA-08: Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier will be up against Republican Carmen Goers in this battleground seat.

Happy Wednesday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Hawaii primaries: 3

Days until the Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin primaries: 6

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 12

Days until the Alaska, Florida and Wyoming primaries: 13

Days until the Massachusetts primaries: 28

Days until the Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries: 35

Days until the 2024 election: 90

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Presidential Big Board

VEEPSTAKES — Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate. She “loved [his] governing record in Minnesota. His biography and record of winning tough races resonated with her. And most of all, she just really liked him,” POLITICO’s Eugene Daniels, Elena Schneider, Holly Otterbein and Chris Cadelago write. “Harris appreciated Walz’s two terms as governor because he had accomplishments in Minnesota that Harris wants to replicate in her presidency — access to reproductive health, paid leave, child tax credits and gun safety.”

… Across the aisle, Republicans are “racing to define” Walz as “the next liberal boogeyman, hoping to capitalize on voters’ unfamiliarity” with him, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky, Natalie Allison and Meridith McGraw report.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

THE VIEW FROM DOWN-BALLOT — House Democrats were advocating for Walz, in part because they saw him “improving their own chances of recapturing the majority,” POLITICO’s Sarah Ferris, Nick Wu, Meredith Lee Hill and Daniella Diaz report. “Walz’s former colleagues also pitched him as someone who could calm battleground Democrats’ concerns that Harris, a former West Coast senator with few ties to moderate coalitions, was poised to do even worse than Biden with white, blue-collar voters in must-win Midwest and Rust Belt states.”

IN THE STATES — If the Harris-Walz ticket is successful, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would succeed him in Minnesota, becoming the state’s first woman governor and the first Native American woman in the country to hold the role. She’d be able to run for a full term in 2026.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE FALLOUT — “FBI agents executed a search warrant late last week on Tennessee Congressman Andy Ogles as the first-term Republican faces continuing scrutiny over fraudulent campaign financial reports that he filed,” NewsChannel 5’s Phil Williams reports. Ogles said that the FBI took his phone and that he’s “confident all involved will conclude that the reporting discrepancies were based on honest mistakes, and nothing more.” Ogles last week fended off a primary challenge from Nashville Metro Council member Courtney Johnston, who hit him over those campaign finance irregularities.

PULL UP A CHAIR — “A judge Tuesday cleared the way for opponents of Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams to hold a gathering in about two weeks to vote on whether the embattled leader should be removed and replaced,” The Colorado Sun’s Jesse Paul writes. Late last month, a state court judge issued a temporary restraining order to block a meeting where Republicans would vote on Williams’ ouster, but that judge wrote in a Tuesday ruling that he lacked jurisdiction in doing so.

Williams, who has been chair of the state GOP since last year, has drawn the ire of local Republicans in recent months. Critics point to an email he sent from the state party account that attacked Pride Month, and others have taken issue with how he used the position to boost his failed congressional campaign. (Williams ran with Trump's backing for CO-05, a deep red seat being vacated by outgoing Republican Rep. Doug Lamborn. He lost by 30 points to conservative commentator Jeff Crank.) Williams also led the party to break from precedent to endorse candidates in contested primaries this year — many of whom ended up losing last month.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — EMILYs List is backing Whitney Fox ahead of the crowded Democratic primary for FL-13, held by Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.

AS SEEN ON TV

AZ-Sen — DSCC features footage of Republican Kari Lake telling McCain Republicans to “get the hell out,” attacks her over abortion and says she is endorsed by “white supremacists and Holocaust deniers.” The ad, along with ones in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are part of a $79 million ad blitz from the DSCC, per POLITICO's Ally Mutnick.

MI-Sen — DSCC accuses Rogers of being bought by "special interests."

... NRSC knocks Slotkin for voting to provide stimulus checks to prisoners like former USA Gymnastics doctor Larry Nassar.

MT-Sen — Last Best Place PAC, the Democratic super PAC, accuses Republican Tim Sheehy of threatening veterans’ access to health care.

… More Jobs, Less Government, a pro-Sheehy PAC, hits Democratic Sen. Jon Tester for voting with Biden and Harris and says he’s “part of the cover-up.”

OH-Sen — Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown says he works with Republicans to “block China from purchasing more farmland.”

PA-Sen — Republican Dave McCormick says that Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is lying about him making “investments in the makers of illegal fentanyl.”

... DSCC ties McCormick to China and attacks him over abortion.

… One Nation, a group aligned with Senate GOP leadership, attacks Casey over immigration and inflation and highlights his vote record with Biden.

WI-Sen — DSCC casts Republican Eric Hovde as a "multimillionaire California banker" trying to buy the seat.

NH-Gov — Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte vows to “keep us on the Sununu path.”

AK-AL — Vote Alaska Before Party, which in the 2022 cycle received funding from House Majority PAC, warns that Republicans Nick Begich, Nancy Dahlstrom and Gerald Heikes want to ban abortion.

AZ-06 — NRCC and Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani are up with a coordinated spot on the economy, in which Ciscomani talks about his experience immigrating to America.

CO-08 — Houses Majority Forward, the nonprofit affiliated with HMP, features a prosecutor saying that Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo is bipartisan and “broke with her own party to vote for tougher penalties for fentanyl crimes.”

FL-09 — Democratic Rep. Darren Soto is running a Spanish-language spot ticking through his policy achievements regarding drug prices, guns, veterans and jobs.

ME-02 — House Majority Forward is touting Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s support of veterans.

NV-02 — Independent Greg Kidd says he supports term limits.

NY-04 — House Majority Forward attacks Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito over abortion.

WI-03 — Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden is running his first spot of the cycle, where he feeds goats and talks about the “absolute chaos” in Washington.

WI-08 — Republican Tony Wied is running a direct-to-camera ad from Trump, who endorsed him. He urges former state Sen. Roger Roth, one of Wied’s primary opponents, to “drop out of the race immediately.”

… Roth goes after Harris on immigration and the economy, along with “radicals trying to kill our president.”

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “News to me.” — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer responding to a post saying that Jewish people are “not allowed at the top of the Democratic Party.”

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