Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Did This 6.6% Yielder Earn an Upgrade?

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Did Verizon Earn an Upgrade?

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

A little over a year ago, I gave telecom giant Verizon (NYSE: VZ) a "C" grade for dividend safety due to declining free cash flow and a payout ratio that was just above my 75% threshold. But I concluded my evaluation by saying, "I won't be surprised if next year at this time, Verizon's dividend safety rating has been upgraded."

The stock currently pays a $0.665 quarterly dividend, which equates to a 6.6% yield. Let's see whether the company earned the expected upgrade.

Importantly, free cash flow came in higher than projected in 2023. Last May, the company's free cash flow was forecast to be $16.9 billion for the year. It actually came in at $18.7 billion, which shrunk the payout ratio from above 75% to a very comfortable 59%.

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That gave the company lots of room to raise the dividend, as it has done every year since 2007.

Chart:
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However, that free cash flow figure was still lower than it was three years ago, and it's expected to be $18.7 billion again this year. That's problematic. We want to see cash flow growing, not remaining stagnant - and certainly not declining.

There was also some recent news that affirmed my thoughts on where Verizon is headed.

Here's my outlook for the company and its dividend...

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