| | | | |  | | By Erin Banco, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Miles J. Herszenhorn | |  A banner depicts the late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh (left) joining hands with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a square in downtown Tehran, Iran, on Aug. 5, 2024. The Biden administration has urged Iran to rethink its reaction to the blast that killed Haniyeh. | Vahid Salemi/AP | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Iran may be rethinking launching a multi-pronged attack on Israel, U.S. officials say. The Biden administration has in recent days worked through diplomatic channels, bringing in its Middle East allies to lobby Tehran to reconsider moving forward with a military attack on Israel. They’ve warned Iran that a massive strike would only inflame tensions and risk a direct confrontation between the two countries, two senior U.S. officials said. The administration has also urged Iran to rethink its reaction to the blast that killed Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH, because his death appears to be the result of a remote-controlled bomb that had been placed in his Tehran guesthouse in a covert operation, rather than as part of a larger attack. Now, Tehran is increasingly on board with Washington’s thinking, though it initially denied it, the officials said. Both were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence assessments. U.S. officials have sent messages to Tehran through various intermediaries that if the blast that killed Haniyeh was caused by a covert Israeli operation and did not kill any Iranian citizens, then Iran should reevaluate its plan to launch a military attack on Israel. The officials said they do anticipate some kind of Iranian response to the Haniyeh killing, but that Tehran seems to have recalibrated and the U.S. does not expect an attack on Israel imminently. When asked by reporters Wednesday whether the U.S. believed Iran had changed its mind, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said he would not speak to specific intelligence assessments but that the Biden administration did “not want to see an escalation.” “If there is one, my goodness, we're going to be ready to defend Israel and defend ourselves as appropriate,” he said. Washington received indications last week that Iran would potentially try to carry out an attack on Israel over the weekend. In anticipation, the U.S. sent fighter jets and ships to the region, which officials described as a show of deterrence. U.S. officials are meanwhile still working to broker a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas. Last month, officials told reporters they felt as though they were the closest they’d ever been to finalizing the pact. But talks have slowed in recent weeks in the wake of Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s visit to Washington and his July 24 address to Congress, as well as the tit-for-tat strikes exchanged between Israel and Hezbollah. Representatives of the U.S., including CIA director BILL BURNS, and officials from Israel, Qatar and Egypt met last week to try and iron out the outstanding disagreements between Israel and Hamas. While no decisions have been finalized, U.S. officials now say they believe Netanyahu is motivated to move forward on the negotiations — a change that they say has come as a direct result of pressure by the Israeli security establishment to end the war in Gaza and bring the hostages home.
| | | | Breaking News Briefing: Where Tim Walz Stands on the Issues — The Democratic ticket is set now that Vice President Kamala Harris has named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Join POLITICO Pro on Friday Aug. 9 for a detailed discussion with specialist reporters on what Walz's track record says about the policies he and Harris will embrace in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign. Register for the Briefing | | | | | | | | EVACUATIONS IN NORTH GAZA: The Israel Defense Forces issued new evacuation orders to Palestinians in northern Gaza after rockets were fired into Israel, per Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI. The orders, which suggest that Israel might once again sweep through the battle-battered region, come amid continued international pressure on Israel to end the war in Gaza. Turkey joined South Africa’s case at the International Court of Justice, alleging that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in the region, our own CSONGOR KÖRÖMI reports. BORDER BARRAGES: Authorities in Moscow said today that they are fighting Ukrainian forces that made an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, Reuters’ GUY FAULCONBRIDGE and LIDIA KELLY report. Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN called the incursion a “major provocation” and accused Ukrainian forces of firing “indiscriminately” at civilian targets. Putin’s claims could not be independently verified and Ukrainian officials have refused to comment on reports on the incursion. NEGOTIATING WITH MADURO: The U.S. is voicing its openness to negotiate with Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO as a way to ensure a peaceful transition of power following a contentious election, The Miami Herald’s NORA GÁMEZ TORRES reports. Acting Assistant Secretary for the Western Hemisphere MARK WELLS told a small group of reporters the U.S. is supporting diplomatic efforts by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico “that are pushing for a return of democracy to Venezuela.” The discussion of potential talks between Maduro and the opposition comes amid doubts about Maduro’s claims that the election results published by the government were legitimate and fair. The opposition is also refusing to cooperate with an audit of the election by the country’s Maduro-aligned top court. ISIS ON THE SUBCONTINENT: India and Pakistan are increasingly concerned that ISIS-K, the Islamic State affiliate blamed for a deadly March attack on a Moscow concert hall, is growing as a threat to their security, per Newsweek’s TOM O’CONNOR. ISIS-K, which is based in Afghanistan, has ramped up its threats against India’s government, charging the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI as being “hostile to Muslims.” The group is also fueling a simmering insurgency in Kashmir and ramping up operations in Pakistan’s border provinces with Afghanistan. NO MOVE FORWARD: Thailand’s top court ordered the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in recent parliamentary elections, as it has sought to revise a law protecting the country’s monarchy from insults and criticism, per Reuters’ CHAYUT SETBOONSARNG and PANU WONGCHA-UM. The members of the party not affected by political bans said today they would reorganize into a new bloc. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Unrivaled National Asset – Protecting and Powering Economic Growth
The F-35 is the most significant defense program in the U.S., powering small and large businesses and creating high-paying, high-tech and manufacturing jobs for workers in the innovation economy. Learn more. | | | | | WEDGING ISRAEL: Republicans are claiming that Vice President KAMALA HARRIS picked Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ as her running mate because of pressure from “pro-Hamas” forces, our own IRIE SENTNER and LIZ CRAMPTON report. GOP critics accused the Harris campaign of snubbing Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO, who is Jewish, over his views on Israel. Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) said Harris was “catering here to her far-left, pro-Hamas elements in the Democratic Party” by picking Walz, who has been less outspoken in his support for Israel in the past and has responded with empathy toward criticisms of the Biden administration’s posture toward Israel amid its war in the Gaza Strip. But Democrats are standing by Walz, and a wide array of Jewish and pro-Israel groups and politicians praised the selection of Walz as Harris’ running mate. As Irie and Liz write, the attacks “revealed how divisive and potent Middle East politics have become in this election cycle as the war between Israel and Hamas enters its 11th month. Republicans are unified in capitalizing on splits among Democrats, quickly labeling their opponents antisemitic for anything short of steadfast support of Israel.” HARRIS ON AFGHANISTAN: Harris was “the last person in the room” and asked probing questions as the Biden administration navigated the troubled withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, but stopped short of calling for policy changes, The Washington Post’s MICHAEL KRANISH and DAN LAMOTHE report. Afghan officials hoped that Harris, who had championed the well-being of women and girls in Afghanistan, would be sympathetic to requests that some U.S. troops stay behind to help the beleaguered Afghan government keep the Taliban at bay. And U.S. officials present for meetings said Harris asked incisive questions during the 17-day withdrawal. But U.S. officials also told the Post that Harris did not advocate for a change in course even as the process turned calamitous and the Taliban quickly gained territory, suggesting that her ability or willingness to meaningfully alter Biden’s course on historic choices has been limited. A Harris aide said the vice president “strongly supported President Biden’s decision to end America’s longest war,” adding, “We’re not going to get into the vice president’s private counsel to the president.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | TRANSATLANTIC CYBER WOES: British and European cyber officials detected cyberattacks and other foreign interference efforts during recent elections, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). Speaking today at a session of the BlackHat conference in Las Vegas, HANS DE VRIES, Chief Operating Officer of the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, said that cyberattacks tried to overwhelm systems and temporarily take them offline both “during the voting process” and the week ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. Their impact, he emphasized, was ultimately limited. British cyber chief FELICITY OSWALD, the head of the U.K. National Cyber Security Center, said during the same panel that her agency “absolutely saw attempts to engage or disrupt” last month’s British parliamentary elections. Oswald pointed the finger at China and other actors for the attempted breaches. The comments come as worries grow on both sides of the Atlantic that adversaries like Russia and China are attempting to interfere in consequential elections this year by spreading disinformation and compromising sensitive voting systems.
| | A SPACE ODYSSEY: NASA officials revealed during a news conference today that two American astronauts may not return to Earth from the International Space Station until 2025, The New York Times’ KENNETH CHANG reports. The astronauts, SUNI WILIAMS and BUTCH WILMORE, traveled on a Boeing spacecraft to the ISS in June for a trip that was supposed to last for approximately eight days, but problems with the spacecraft delayed their return. While NASA officials initially said they were not seriously concerned about the issues, they may no longer travel back on the vehicle. WE GOT IT FROM HERE: Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS said there needs to be more “congressional trust” in the Pentagon if it wants the U.S. military to successfully achieve its emerging technology goal, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!). Hicks, the Pentagon’s second-ranking civilian official, said at the National Defense Industrial Association's Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference today that the amount of congressional oversight “isn’t scalable” across all new technology initiatives. She also chided Congress for its delays in passing funding bills on time. "At the same time, trust is a two-way street. We know Congress shares our commitment to defense innovation — and yet major barriers to defense innovation remain," Hicks said. "Notable among them is still the consistent lack of on-time, full-year appropriations."
| | | |   | | | | | ANOTHER SQUAD DEFEAT: Pro-Israel groups flexed their muscle for a second time, helping prosecutor WESLEY BELL defeat Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) in a primary Tuesday, our own NICHOLAS WU reports. Bush, an outspoken critic of the Israeli government, is the second member of the progressive “Squad” to lose an expensive Democratic primary to a challenger backed by the pro-Israel lobby. Her loss comes just weeks after Westchester County executive GEORGE LATIMER defeated another squad member, Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.), in a race that was dominated by discussion of local issues. AMMO PLANT LEGISLATION: A group of progressive lawmakers introduced legislation that would stop Army-manufactured ammunition from entering the consumer weapons marketplace. The bill, which faces an uncertain future in the GOP-controlled House, was introduced by Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and Reps. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.), JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) and ROBERT GARCIA (D-Calif.). It would ban military contractors from selling military-grade bullets and ammunition to civilians and increase oversight over government-owned plants operated by contractors. The legislation follows congressional scrutiny over the role of the Lake City ammunition plant in Missouri in producing bullets used in various high-profile mass shootings.
| | | RAHM SKIPS A-BOMB COMMEMORATION: U.S. Ambassador to Japan RAHM EMANUEL is skipping an official commemoration of the anniversary of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki because organizers opted not to invite Israel, per the Associated Press’ MARI YAMAGUCHI. The U.S. embassy in Tokyo said Emanuel will skip the event since it was “politicized” and will instead visit a Buddhist temple and honor victims at a ceremony there. Nagasaki’s mayor had said previously that Israel was not invited out of fears it could spark protests and interfere with the solemn remembrance of the victims of the 1945 bombing. LEFT BEHIND: A Russian-American dual citizen, KSENIA KARELINA, pled guilty today to a charge of treason in a Russian court, according to Reuters. Karelina, who was not included in the prisoner swap last week, was charged with treason over a $51.80 donation in 2022 to Razom, a charity that provides aid for Ukrainians amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country. A verdict in the case is expected to come on Thursday.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Powering Economic Growth Needed to Outpace Global Competitors
The F-35 is built by more than 1,650 high-tech suppliers, more than half of which are small businesses based in the U.S., representing the backbone of the U.S. innovation economy. Learn more. | | | | | — ANNA KLINGENSMITH has left the Aspen Institute where she was a program associate for the Aspen Strategy Group and Aspen Security Forum. She is heading to the Harvard Kennedy School to get a master's in public policy. — DANY BAHAR is now director of the Center for Global Development’s migration, displacement and humanitarian policy program. He most recently has been an associate professor of the practice of international and public affairs at Brown University’s Watson Institute. — Former Canadian spy chief DAVID VIGNEAULT joined the U.S. intelligence firm Strider as managing director of its global intelligence unit, per Reuters’ ISMAIL SHAKIL. He retired as director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service amid public scrutiny over the agency’s work to stop foreign interference in Canada’s elections. — PETER REID joined Barclays as the managing director and global head of external engagement. He previously ran communications for McKinsey, Deloitte and the British Foreign Office and served as spokesperson for the Good Friday Agreement.
| | — NADIA BEARD, The New Yorker: A summer of hope and despair in Tbilisi — Rep. SARA JACOBS, The Hill: One of the fastest ways to end Sudan’s civil war is to stop the UAE’s involvement — MAX BERGMANN, War on the Rocks: NATO missed a chance to transform itself
| | — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Assad’s return: Regional changes, and future outlook. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: U.S. investments in Asia: Catalyzing sustainable growth through strategic partnerships. — The Wilson Center, 3:30 p.m.: One year later: The path forward for US-ROK-Japan trilateral relations. Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who never yields to diplomatic pressure. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who is persuading Rosie to rethink her attacks on us. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment