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August 8tht, 2024 | Issue 245 |
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As summer gently fades into autumn, our family is on the brink of an exciting transition. My daughter Becki is packing her bags to head back to college, while her younger sister Maya is preparing for her very first year. Both are set to embark on their academic adventures at the University of Illinois. It's a delightful twist that both my girls ended up choosing the same school—a surprise we never anticipated but now eagerly embrace. The prospect of Becki and Maya sharing experiences at the same university brings a mix of nostalgia and excitement. We're looking forward to parents' weekends, where we can relive our own college days through their eyes, and the thrill of football games that promise spirited rivalry and camaraderie. Every holiday and special occasion will now be an opportunity to see them both, an unexpected blessing that adds a layer of joy to our family gatherings. This unexpected turn of events in our personal lives reminds me of the surprises we've witnessed in the market this week. Just as we never foresaw both daughters attending the same college, the market has thrown several curveballs our way. Earnings reports fell short of expectations, economic data revealed challenges and ongoing speculation about the Federal Reserve's next moves has added uncertainty to the market landscape. Life, much like the market, is full of surprises—some welcome and others more daunting. As Becki and Maya transition into their next school year, they will face both exciting opportunities and inevitable challenges. Similarly, as investors, we must navigate the good and the bad with equal poise. The key lies in remaining adaptable and clear-headed, turning obstacles into opportunities for growth and learning. Embracing surprises requires a balanced approach. It's about managing emotions, maintaining perspective, and focusing on the long term. Just as we support Becki and Maya in their academic pursuits, encouraging them to seize opportunities and learn from setbacks, we must approach the financial markets with a similar mindset. Whether it's re-evaluating portfolios in light of unexpected earnings or adjusting strategies based on new economic data, staying proactive allows us to turn uncertainty into advantage. As we enter the next stage of the year, with Becki and Maya settling into their academic routines and the stock market gearing up for the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the transition from Q3 to Q4, let's embrace both the excitement and the challenges ahead. By staying grounded and adaptable, we can navigate life's twists and turns with confidence and optimism. Here's to embracing the unexpected and finding the silver linings in every surprise, as we look forward to what the future holds for both our families and the markets. |
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Chief Investment Officer/Founder |
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TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) |
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The ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) is designed to provide investors with an inverse exposure to the Nasdaq-100 Index. This ETF is specifically structured to perform in the opposite direction of the Nasdaq-100 on a daily basis. For example, if the Nasdaq-100 falls by 1%, PSQ aims to rise by 1%, providing a way to profit from declines in the index. |
In light of recent market developments outlined in the Current Trading Landscape, PSQ stands out as a strong candidate for the week ahead. The market has experienced heightened volatility, with stocks falling sharply on Thursday due to fears that the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut might not be sufficient to stave off a recession. The SPY rally has also shown signs of being capped at $560-$575, with short-term support around $520-$530. This sets a backdrop of uncertainty and potential further declines. The recent job report highlighted a slowdown in job creation, with only 114,000 nonfarm payrolls added in July compared to the expected 175,000. Additionally, the manufacturing sector has shown continued weakness, as evidenced by the PMI dropping to 46.8, indicating persistent contraction. These factors contribute to a bearish outlook for the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100, where PSQ is likely to benefit. My A.I. models have identified PSQ as a favorable position given the current economic indicators and market volatility. The models suggest that the tech sector, which heavily influences the Nasdaq-100, may face additional challenges ahead. This aligns with the broader market trend of increasing volatility, as reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which spiked to 28.18 this week, signaling heightened fear and uncertainty. |
Given these conditions, PSQ offers a strategic opportunity to hedge against potential declines in the Nasdaq-100 and capitalize on the bearish sentiment currently prevalent in the market. As we move into the next phase of the year, with economic uncertainties and potential adjustments in monetary policy, PSQ provides a tactical way to navigate these challenges and potentially benefit from further market downturns. This week, I'll be adding ProShares Short QQQ ETF (PSQ) to my portfolio! |
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| Vlad Karpel
YellowTunnel and Tradespoon Founder |
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P.S. Click here for access to the latest Power Trading Live Strategy Roundtable Recording. |
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DISCLAIMER: Vlad and his team may have a financial interest in the picks as they trade many of the same equities and options they pick. Vlad Karpel and YellowTunnel (Company) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. All investing strategies are made available to the general public on a regular basis. We do not provide personalized financial advice or investment recommendations. As an investor, you know that any kind of investment opportunity has its risks. There is no such thing as low-risk stocks and we recommend you invest wisely and that only risk capital should be used to trade. Investing in Stocks and Options is highly speculative. No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed here and on our website. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE SUCCESS: It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators developed at YellowTunnel will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Nor should it be assumed that future picks will be profitable or will equal past performance. All of the content on our website and in our email alerts is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. Remember, you should always consult with a licensed securities professional before purchasing or selling securities of companies profiled or discussed on YellowTunnel.com. Performance results that are discussed above are from the Live Trading Room. Multiple YellowTunnel tools were used to achieve these results. Trade % Gain/Loss is calculated by dividing the $ Gain/Loss by the Max Risk, which is the posted Stop Loss for the trade. Yellow Tunnel's performance data represents the average return on all trading recommendations from January 1, 2020, to today. *Win rate percentage reflects the average that Yellow Tunnel's software helped me identify a profitable investment strategy.** Triple-digit returns are not typical and are not intended to reflect the likelihood of similar returns in the future. |
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