| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  Running-mate meetings today will be critical for VP Kamala Harris’ decision. | Elijah Nouvelage/Pool/AFP via Getty Images | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | NEW POLL — A new CBS News poll of likely voters finds VP KAMALA HARRIS and DONALD TRUMP locked in a statistical dead heat. Head to head, Harris is at 50 percent and Trump is at 49 percent — well within the nationwide poll’s 2.1-point margin of error. With third-party candidates included, Harris sits at 49 percent, Trump at 47 percent and ROBERT F. KENNEDY at 2 percent. Among likely voters In battleground states (margin of error +/- 4 points):
- Arizona: Harris 49 percent, Trump 49 percent
- Georgia: Harris 47, Trump 50
- Michigan: Harris 48, Trump 48
- Nevada: Harris 50, Trump 48
- North Carolina: Harris 47, Trump 50
- Pennsylvania: Harris 50, Trump 50
- Wisconsin: Harris 49, Trump 50
SHOTGUN VEEPSTAKES — Harris meets today with finalists on her shortlist for a running mate — a series of face-to-face sit-downs that her team is describing as a “chemistry test” with the person who will be her No. 2. Harris will meet at the Naval Observatory with Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO, Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) and Minnesota Gov TIM WALZ. The former two contenders have been considered the favorites in recent weeks by well-sourced reporters, while the Minnesotan has emerged as a dark-horse candidate quickly winning over the hearts of Democrats just getting to know him. Harris, we remind you, is expected to make her choice sometime tomorrow before hitting the campaign trail with her running mate, capping off a two-week frenzy during which President JOE BIDEN decided to end his reelection campaign and Harris got her own effort up and running. The meetings will be critical for Harris’ decision, as the VP is prioritizing someone she views as a governing partner rather than just one who could help land a critical swing state. Former AG ERIC HOLDER and a team of lawyers from Covington & Burling — who’ve been working to vet the candidates — delivered presentations to Harris on their backgrounds and potential upsides and vulnerabilities,WaPo’s Tyler Pager reports. Harris has also tapped LIZ ALLEN, a top State Department official (and Harris’ comms director on the 2020 Biden-Harris ticket), to become the VP candidate’s chief of staff. The rumor mill of who’s up and who’s down has been swirling all week. Here’s the latest: While most Democrats are betting on Shapiro — who has won more votes in the critical battleground than any gubernatorial candidate in Keystone State history and outperformed Biden in 2020 — one of the governor’s political rivals is trying to sabotage his chances. Advisers to Democratic Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN, Shapiro’s longtime home-state rival, have reached out to Harris’ team to relay the senator’s concerns about Shapiro,our Holly Otterbein scoops. These concerns, notably, center not on electoral worries, but on the fact Fetterman thinks Shapiro “is excessively focused on his own personal ambitions.” The pair rose on parallel tracks in Pennsylvania — one as a relative centrist, the other as a progressive. But they especially butted heads while serving on Pennsylvania’s Board of Pardons, where Fetterman took a more lenient position than Shapiro in providing second chances to some convicts. (Though if we’re being honest here, and Harris truly wants to win over swing voters and Trump-skeptical Republicans, Shapiro’s tougher-on-crime position would likely be a benefit, not a drawback.) The knifing comes as progressive activists are increasingly vocalizing their concerns about Shapiro and Kelly, warning that selecting either could undercut Democrats’ newfound party unity, AP’s Will Weissert writes. Unions are making their discomfort with Kelly widely known over his resistance to policies favored by organized labor, while pro-Palestinian groups are pushing back on Shapiro for his handling of Gaza protests. Who stands to gain from the last minute second-guessing? Walz. The good-natured Minnesota governor is getting “a renewed focus,” CNN’s Jeff Zeleny, MJ Lee and Jamie Gangel reported late last night — though they offered scant details beyond that. Indeed, Walz appears to have captured the attention of Democrats across the spectrum. Progressives are drawn to what the Times called his “folksy takedowns” of Trump. Centrists see an appeal in his Midwestern dad vibes. One fun read on that front: From his obsession with Diet Mountain Dew to his fluency in Mandarin after teaching English in China 35 years ago, read this Star Tribune piece about Walz. Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo is proud of the role we play for our customers, communities and the U.S. economy. We serve 1 in 3 U.S. households and more than 10% of small businesses in the nation. We serve customers digitally and in-person, with 4,000 locations across the country, operating in 24 of the 30 largest markets. We cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. See how. | | | DNC COUNTDOWN — The Democratic National Convention is just two weeks away. Are you headed to Chicago? Join POLITICO for live, in-person conversations with the Democratic Party’s biggest newsmakers. Sign up to get notified when registration opens SUNDAY BEST … — Deputy national security adviser JON FINER on criticisms of the prisoner swap with Russia, on ABC’s “This Week”: “The president himself has said that these are extremely difficult decisions for a head of state to make. … Our view is, there are countries around the world that wish to do us harm. And some of the ways in which they try to do us harm is by catching American citizens up in what can be geopolitical or other disputes. We do not think that it is responsible or the right thing to do for American interests to leave those people in harm’s way.” — Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) on the violent attack on her husband, on “CBS News Sunday Morning”: “My husband and I have never talked about this … The doctors have supported that, because they don’t want him to revisit it. … He was looking for me … Imagine the guilt of all of that — it’s just a horrible thing.” — Sen. LAPHONZA BUTLER (D-Calif.) on Trump’s attacks on Harris’ race, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “This is an absolute distraction. It is an insult. It is despicable. This is a woman who was born in Oakland, California, who has declared and lived proudly all of her identities her entire life, embracing the totality of who she is. … This is the only card he’s got to play, and so he's playing it. He’s desperate.” — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on those Trump comments, on “Fox News Sunday”: “Here’s what I would say to President Trump: The problem I have with Kamala Harris is not her heritage, [it’s] her judgment. She has been wrong about everything. When she tried to explain what she would do about inflation and an upcoming recession, it made no sense. … Every day we’re talking about her heritage and not her terrible, dangerous liberal record throughout her entire political life [is] a good day for her and a bad day for us.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
| | | | A message from Wells Fargo:   Wells Fargo is proud of the role we play for our customers, communities and the U.S. economy. What we say, we do. See how. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and Harris have nothing on their public schedules.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | |  Second gentleman Doug Emhoff issued a statement about the end of his previous marriage. | Jacquelyn Martin, File/AP Photo | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. PERSONAL HISTORY: The Harris campaign was hit with its first personal scandal when the Daily Mail’s Josh Boswell and Emma James scooped that second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF had cheated on his first wife, KERSTIN, with their kids’ nanny/teacher, helping contribute to the end of the marriage. They also reported that Emhoff got her pregnant, but she didn’t keep the baby. In response, Emhoff issued a statement to CNN’s Isaac Dovere acknowledging that his first marriage “went through some tough times on account of my actions. I took responsibility, and in the years since, we worked through things as a family and have come out stronger on the other side.” He reports that all the drama predates Harris, and has long been known to the Biden and Harris teams. And Kerstin Emhoff stood up for their family in a statement too, saying that “Doug and I decided to end our marriage for a variety of reasons, many years ago. He is a great father to our kids [and] continues to be a great friend to me.” 2. TRUMP VEERS OFF SCRIPT: Trump’s campaign may be running a much tighter, smoother operation this time around, but the candidate still can’t help himself sometimes. His baseless attacks on Harris’ race have damaged his team’s plan to take on and define Harris, WSJ’s Alex Leary and Vivian Salama report. His controversies are putting Senate Republicans back in the familiarly uncomfortable position of being made to answer for him, WaPo’s Paul Kane writes. And Trump is continuing to pick off-topic or off-the-cuff fights:
- He doubled down on his refusal to attend the ABC debate with Harris, instead declaring that he would refuse to debate her unless she agreed to his Fox News proposal, per the AP.
- He repeated baseless claims that Democratic political attacks were to blame for the assassination attempt against him, despite the fact that THOMAS CROOKS’ motive remains unclear, per WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf.
- A bit more on message: Yesterday, Trump also blasted the Biden administration for making what he called a bad deal to bring Russian-held hostages home, congratulating Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN on pulling it off, per WaPo’s Josh Dawsey.
3. JUST VANCE: Sen. JD VANCE’s (R-Ohio) old remarks about women and childlessness have stirred up an unhelpful hornet’s nest with independent voters, WaPo’s Maeve Reston finds in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, where his comments were even more top of mind than interest in Harris’ launch. Notably, the controversy is reviving old concerns about Trump’s treatment of women and his position on abortion — especially now that he’s running against a woman. Vance’s place on the ticket is bringing renewed scrutiny to his concerns about no-fault divorce, as WaPo’s Emily Wax-Thibodeaux writes. Other parts of Vance’s history and beliefs are coming into focus, too. WaPo’s Dan Lamothe and Alex Horton talk to his old Marine buddies, who generally laud his military service and say it should be off-limits from political attacks, even as some of them are baffled by his hard-right turn. Perhaps most consequentially, NYT’s Matt Flegenheimer dives into Vance’s views about the use of power. He has been unchanging recently in the assertion that Republicans must use every opportunity possible to assert dominance, even if it stretches the Constitution and democracy, “insisting that these zero-sum times require a zero-sum strategy.” 4. LATEST FROM TANYA CHUTKAN: “Judge rejects Trump’s claim of ‘vindictive’ prosecution by Biden allies,” by Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney: “In a 16-page opinion, Chutkan swept aside Trump’s attempt to dismiss his Washington, D.C., criminal case … over claims that President Joe Biden pressured prosecutors to target his political rival. In the ruling, Chutkan said Trump repeatedly mischaracterized the charges against him, which describe far more than simply criminalizing his claimed belief that the 2020 election was stolen. Rather, Chutkan ruled, the charges describe a sweeping attempt to manipulate and lie to government authorities in order to undermine the lawful 2020 election results.”
| | | | A message from Wells Fargo:   What we say, we do. See how. | | | 5. HARRIS REVS UP: As the Democratic base comes back to Harris and the election returns to the familiar set of battleground states, she’s adding more staffers to the Sun Belt and other swing states, Reuters’ Stephanie Kelly reports. “In the next two weeks, the campaign will add 150 more staff in the ‘Blue Wall,’ and will more than double its staff in Arizona and North Carolina, [DAN] KANNINEN said.” Today, Harris is launching a new “Republicans for Harris” campaign to try to win over GOP voters, AP’s Zeke Miller scooped. Harris is also gathering steam with some key demographic groups. In some polling, she has reversed Trump’s advantage with low-income voters, Bloomberg’s Amara Omeokwe, Mark Niquette and Jeff Green report. And she’s reenergized South Asian American voters, which could be especially important in Georgia, per NYT’s Isabelle Qian and Alex Pena. More Harris reading: “Here Are Kamala Harris’s Closest Confidantes on Wall Street,” by WSJ’s Lauren Thomas: “The vice president retains closer ties to the finance world than many realize.” 6. BIG INVESTIGATION: “With Smugglers and Front Companies, China Is Skirting American A.I. Bans,” by NYT’s Ana Swanson and Claire Fu: “Beginning in October 2022, the United States set up one of the most extensive technological blockades ever attempted: banning the export to China of A.I. chips and the machinery to make them. … But given the vast profits at stake, businesses around the world have found ways to skirt the restrictions.” More China reading: “The U.S. Has Been Spending Billions to Revive Manufacturing. But China Is in Another League,” by WSJ’s Jason Douglas and Clarence Leong … “Chinese Migrants Rush to Find Way to U.S. Border Before Doors Close,” by WSJ’s Wenxin Fan 7. HERE COMES ROBERT LIGHTHIZER: “He’s the rare Trump adviser to survive the first term. He’s poised to be even more influential in a second,” by Gavin Bade: “If Trump wins in November, Lighthizer is poised to pursue an even more disruptive set of policies next year, one that is already raising alarms in foreign capitals, on Wall Street and among many economists. … Lighthizer is a candidate for a number of senior roles in a second Trump administration, from Treasury or Commerce secretary to a second turn as USTR, or as an economic adviser or even White House chief of staff. … Even rarer, he is one who has friends on both sides of the aisle.” 8. THE SWAP STORY: As the dust settles around the major deal to bring Gershkovich and other detainees home from Russia, NYT’s Anton Troianovski and Mark Mazzetti have a behind-the-scenes look at how it unfolded. The transfer was beset by fears in the West that something would go awry up to the moment it happened. And for the people who were released from Russia, the sudden shift in fortunes produced some emotional whiplash — even some fear that their lives might be ending. Everybody is already spinning a narrative that will be most favorable to them, Nahal Toosi, Erin Banco and Jürgen Klöckner report. That includes different countries and even different agencies: Some at the State Department aren’t thrilled with the NSC for taking all the credit. “[W]hich narrative dominates over time can make a difference in who wins elections, whether governments keep using hostage-taking as a pressure tactic and whether such exchanges can happen again.” 9. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: “How Sherrod Brown is navigating Harris’ candidacy in GOP-leaning Ohio with Senate control at stake,” by CNN’s Manu Raju and Haley Talbot in Brooklyn, Ohio: “Sen. SHERROD BROWN doesn’t plan to campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris. He plans to skip the Democratic National Convention. And the Democratic senator isn’t going to defend Harris’ record — or offer praise to President Joe Biden or to Harris over their handling of the U.S.-Mexico border. Instead, Brown … is making this calculation: finding a way to disqualify his opponent, BERNIE MORENO, in the eyes of GOP-leaning voters and independents.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Neil Gorsuch opened up to David French. Julia Louis-Dreyfus says she “will be extra-involved” in Kamala Harris’ campaign. Denver Riggleman is backing Harris. Abe Hamadeh doesn’t appreciate the attacks on childless politicians. Alsu Kurmasheva’s family needs some make-up Taylor Swift tickets. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Brad Raffensperger got swept up in Georgia’s new voter registration cancellation portal. IN MEMORIAM — “Ina Jaffe, Dogged and Award-Winning NPR Reporter, Dies at 75,” by NYT’s Emmett Lindner: “Ms. Jaffe spent decades covering politics and aging in America, and she was the first editor of the NPR program ‘Weekend Edition Saturday.’” TRANSITIONS — Samantha Hawkins is now comms adviser for infrastructure and the Investing in America agenda at the White House. She previously was director of public affairs at the Federal Highway Administration. Dominic Hawkins is now VP of comms at NAACP. He previously was director of PR at TIAA. (The two, both SKDK alums, got married earlier this year.) WEDDINGS — Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Mindy Noce, an interior designer, got married yesterday in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. They met when “a mutual friend at Seacoast Church set them up,” The Post and Courier’s Caitlin Byrd reports. “Part of the blessing for me was not getting married before now,” Scott told the newspaper. “My feelings are like a kid in a candy shop.” … SPOTTED: Kevin McCarthy, Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), James Lankford (R-Okla.) and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Mark Walker, Bill Haslam and Trey Gowdy. — Holly Page, co-founder and a national spokesperson of No Labels and principal of Holly Page LLC, and David Fuscus, CEO of Xenophon Strategies and founder of Precis AI, eloped Wednesday in Skerries, Ireland, the small town her family is from. They were married by American landscape architect Jeff Lee. The couple met at the Jefferson 12 years ago. Pic … Another pic — Henry Rodgers, chief national correspondent at The Daily Caller, and Annabel Scott Rodgers, VP of operations at the Tucker Carlson Network, got married yesterday on Moosehead Lake in Greenville, Maine. They met through mutual friends in D.C. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former President Barack Obama … House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries … AP’s Seung Min Kim … Bret Baier … Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds … The Hill’s Bob Cusack … POLITICO’s Michael Schaffer … WaPo’s Joby Warrick and Mike Madden … Alex Mallin of ABC … CBS’ Katie Watson … AARP’s Deirdre Shesgreen … Caren Auchman … Joel Bailey of BGR Group … Andrea Hechavarria … CNN’s Greg Krieg … Pete Brodnitz … Brett Loper ... Kate Michelman … Reagan Anderson ... Emil Hill … Claire Berry of Rep. Judy Chu’s (D-Calif.) office … Andrei Cherny … former AG Alberto Gonzales … Amelia Irvine … Minnesota AG Keith Ellison … former Reps. Rob Andrews (D-N.J.) and Tom Rice (R-S.C.) … former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin … former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland … Rokk Solutions’ Varuna Bhatia … American Conservation Coalition’s Logan Luse … Ron Bodinson … Harry Harris … former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot … Something Major’s Randi Braun … Semafor’s Jessica Yarvin … Barbara Dixon Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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