| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake shakes hands with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson as Sweden formally joins NATO, on March 7, 2024. Flake spoke to NatSec Daily as he prepares to leave the post he’s held for three years. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Eugene Daniels, Nahal Toosi and Joseph Gedeon Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Programming note: Your favorite newsletter will be off next week and back in your inbox on Tuesday, Sept. 3. It was a Friday night in January in Ankara, and U.S. Ambassador to Turkey JEFF FLAKE was scrambling. He was making last-minute calls to top U.S. lawmakers in an effort to secure a massive geopolitical deal that would finalize Sweden’s membership into NATO. At the same time, a Turkish diplomat — who had mistakenly flown to New York instead of Virginia — was speeding south on the New Jersey Turnpike toward Washington with the ratification document signed by Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, which had to be deposited in person at the State Department. Speaking with NatSec Daily in a call from Bodrum, Flake said he had guaranteed his Turkish counterparts that by the time that document got to Foggy Bottom, they would have approval from the four corners — Sens. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), and Reps. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) — for the sale of F-16s to Ankara. That’s what Ankara had demanded in order to drop its 14-month block on Sweden. “I was actually glad for the extra time that it took [for the diplomat] to drive down the Jersey Turnpike,” Flake said. He needed that time to convince the lawmakers to sign on a deal that would counterbalance that sale of F-16s to Turkey by selling F-35s to Greece, which has a frayed relationship with Ankara. “I needed to get hold of Risch. He was somewhere out of cell service in Idaho, and then McCaul and Cardin and Meeks, and we had to get those signed off before it arrived. And it just all happened within minutes.” Flake spoke to NatSec Daily as he prepares to leave the post he’s held for three years. His last day as ambassador is Sept. 1. Now that his work is done, Flake plans to split time between Arizona and Utah, hinting that he may go back to teaching at Arizona State University and Brigham Young University, as well as do more public speeches: “It’s gonna be an adjustment. I’ve enjoyed this more than I thought I would,” he said. Here are a few more highlights from our conversation with Flake: If you could be truly frank, is there any advice that you would give Erdoğan? Is there anything that you'd want him to take away from the past few years? Let me give you one vignette: During 2016, when there was an attempted coup here in Turkey, the U.S. was slow to respond to support Erdoğan and the government. At that time, the knock was that President Obama didn't call, but Putin did. That has haunted us for a while. Fast forward to two weeks ago, Turkey was very involved in the prisoner swap. They did the logistics — seven countries, seven planes coming into Ankara, and really did a great job. On this one, the word was: Biden called to thank Erdoğan and Putin didn't. We had a reversal. What I would say: There are people of goodwill who know that Turkey is an indispensable partner. When the world is at peace, Turkey is in an important position just because of geography. But when the world is an upheaval, then it's all the more important. Erdoğan caused a bit of a storm recently when he said Turkey could enter Israel to help Palestinians. What do you think will be Turkey's role in that conflict going forward? We asked Turkey to use their good offices, frankly, to try to de-escalate with Iran. They don't have close relations with Iran. They have some of the same issues that all of us do, but they obviously talk to them more. And the same with the political wing of Hamas. I think Israel considers Turkey as having taken too much of a side with the rhetoric that you've heard. But having said that, it's tough to imagine any long-term solution to the Gaza situation without regional players like Turkey playing a role, either as a guarantor — as they've talked about — or certainly in the rebuild. Is there any advice that you would give to the next U.S. ambassador to Turkey? Continue on all fronts to cultivate this relationship, because I would just say this is an indispensable ally, and we haven't always treated them that way. But they are, and they're a growing regional power. They’re the second largest military in NATO by far next to us. We ought to do all we can to cultivate it.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Bringing every domain closer, no matter the distance.
Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | GAZANS SQUEEZED: Israel has issued nine evacuations affecting an estimated 213,000 people this month, including in places designated as humanitarian zones, significantly diminishing the amount of space the inhabitants can live in. “It means Gaza’s 2.2 million people are now mainly confined to an area of roughly 15 square miles — smaller than the footprint of Manhattan,” The Wall Street Journal’s ABEER AYYOUB and RORY JONES write, citing United Nations stats. At the beginning of this year, evacuation orders forced Gazans to squeeze into 33 percent of the territory. Now, they’re living in 11 percent of the strip, which is about the size of Philadelphia. Aid officials warn that the decreased space for inhabitants will lead to outbreaks in disease and worsening living conditions. KYIV’S NEW PRESSURE CAMPAIGN: Ukraine is using its incursion of Kursk to launch a new pressure campaign in the West — pushing the White House to lift restrictions on using long-range weapons inside Russia. But the White House still isn’t ready to change weapons use policy, at least for now, our own PAUL McLEARY and ERIN BANCO report. Ukrainian officials have been huddling with members of Congress, making public statements and meeting with top U.S. officials to get Biden to change his mind. Armed with the surprising results of the Kursk offensive, Kyiv is amping up the pressure in the run-up to the U.S. elections and the uncertain future of American aid in 2025 and beyond. Ukrainians are still optimistic they can get the restrictions lifted, despite the resistance from the White House. “There’s some indication now that Biden might want to do something big on Ukraine — maybe lifting some of the restrictions — before the election now that he’s not running,” one senior Ukrainian adviser told our colleagues. “There’s no guarantee, but we’re hearing that he’s thinking about it.” SULLIVAN IN CHINA: National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN will travel to Beijing next week as the U.S. election looms in the background, Eric reports. The trip will see Sullivan meet with Foreign Minister WANG YI for the fifth time since Wang reprised his role as China’s top diplomat last year, and it comes as Beijing continues to assess how it should respond to the bipartisan consensus within both parties that the U.S. should see China as a threat to be addressed. And worries about China’s potential digital mischief in the elections are growing. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: Today is a special edition of this feature, as we toast Matt on his last day writing NatSec Daily and his final day at POLITICO. Matt has been in your inbox since October 2022, having joined as a co-writer alongside ALEX WARD (remember that guy?) before taking over as anchor in March. And what a wild news cycle it has been: It’s hard to believe the hot air balloon was floating across the continental United States well over a year ago. “It’s been real,” Matt said, tossing used tissues at Eric’s feet. “The NatSec Daily family is the best part of this job. Thank you for all the feedback, from kind words to the occasional correction. You’ve made me a better journalist, and I hope you’ve enjoyed my writing… and bad puns.” Fear not, NatSec Daily will be left in the very capable hands of a new anchor, who will be announced soon. Eric will still be kicking around as he grieves Matt’s departure, and he humbly requests that in lieu of flowers you send him any tips about Venezuela, Cuba and Armenia. As for the beverages: “I love a PBR at the Raven in Mount Pleasant, or a cheap tallboy anywhere in the city,” Matt said, inviting you to grab a drink at your bar of choice. “I also make a mean Spaghett at home.” Cheers, Matt! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily on Matt’s last day! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | HARRIS’ FOREIGN POLICY MOMENT: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ comments last night at the DNC about Gaza and her touting of herself as a stronger global leader than DONALD TRUMP both drew large cheers at the party gathering last night. Our own EUGENE DANIELS was on the convention floor, and your NatSec Daily hosts were also watching intently for signs of how her foreign policy platform is developing. Here’s what her speech told us about what to expect from the Harris camp in the months ahead. Harris is leaning into her role in the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — as a counterpoint to claims she lacks the foreign policy chops to be president on day one. We’ve heard the administration highlight Harris’ role at the 2022 Munich Security Conference, meeting with VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY on the sidelines of the gathering just days before Russia invaded Ukraine. Harris also started off the foreign policy section of her speech with that moment. On the war in Gaza, it was, and is “Biden and me.” Throughout the speech, we heard Harris emphasize what she would do as president and what she had singularly accomplished to date on key domestic and foreign policy challenges. But when it came to the war in Gaza, she was careful to emphasize that she and Biden share common goals for ending the conflict, including seeing Palestinians have the ability to practice self-determination. The careful embrace of Biden comes as observers look for any sign of daylight between her and the president — and she’s clearly trying to put that to rest. A Harris foreign policy braintrust is coming together. The foreign policy aspects of Harris’ acceptance speech were written by her main speechwriter for Thursday, ADAM FRANKEL, her national security adviser PHIL GORDON and her deputy national security adviser and foreign policy speechwriter DEAN LIEBERMAN, according to a person familiar with the crafting. Harris aides point out that so much of what she said, whether on Gaza or even AI competition with China, have been a part of her foreign policy speeches over the last three and a half years. But the three writers knew she was introducing herself to an entirely new audience. Everyone knew the Gaza remarks were going to get outsized attention, especially considering the protests outside of the convention center. The same person familiar with the speechwriting said the focus was on threading the needle in a speech stuffed with policies and personal story while navigating the tricky policy and political dynamics at the heart of the issue. Not everyone is satisfied. Plenty of pro-Palestinian activists weren’t among the cheering crowds in the convention hall, and the speech fell short of what some organizers hoped Harris would say about the Israeli government. And of course, Republicans wasted no time slamming Harris. Trump’s X account posted a graphic that blamed Harris and Biden for the outbreak of the war in Gaza and the war in Ukraine. FLAKE’S TAKE: We couldn’t let the ambassador get away without asking him if he supports Harris for president, since it’s no secret that he doesn’t love Trump. “I can't comment on that while I'm in this position. I look forward to being able to comment on this when I get home,” Flake told NatSec Daily. Unsatisfied, we tried a different angle: Harris’ running mate TIM WALZ recently got a lot of heat because of his taco preferences. We figured Flake, who represented Arizona in the Senate, would have a decent taco palette, and some opinions on Walz’s food preferences at least. He did, and then some. “The spicier the better — Tim doesn’t know what he’s talking about. I’m good friends with Tim Walz. But what I will say is, seeing him being portrayed as this far left progressive, that may be more where he was as governor,” Flake said. “But I know him as a guy that I would go to to sponsor legislation with or work with on some of my Republican right-wing stuff. He was more of a moderate and certainly just a kind, good man.” He added: “I’m a big fan of Tim Walz.”
| | GAO SLAPS PENTAGON: Six of the Pentagon’s top 25 business IT programs lack an approved cybersecurity strategy, according to an updated report from the Government Accountability Office. That’s actually an improvement from two years ago, the watchdog said. In June 2022, GAO reported that 10 of DOD's major IT business programs did not have approved strategies and recommended the Pentagon’s chief information officer fix it — which the CIO still says it is working on.
| | | UKRAINE’S LATEST GAINS: President JOE BIDEN unveiled a new military aid package for Ukraine today in commemoration of the country’s independence day on Saturday. Biden said in a statement that the package will include air defense missiles, counter-drone equipment and anti-armor missiles and ammunition. The administration will also sanction 400 entities that are “enabling Russia’s illegal war as part of our enduring commitment to hold Russia accountable for its aggression.” The new package comes as Ukraine’s military said it recaptured land in the Kharkiv region and used U.S.-provided glide bombs to carry out strikes in the Kursk region, The Associated Press’ HANNA ARHIROVA and VANESSA GERA report. The advancements are a sign that Ukraine’s battlefield successes are continuing following its surprise incursion into the Kursk region earlier this month, which Kyiv views as strengthening its hand in future peace negotiations with Moscow.
| | TOPLINE OUTLOOK MURKY: The prospects of lawmakers clinching a deal to boost the defense budget that goes beyond spending caps, and Biden’s budget request, are unclear at this point, Rep. KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.) told our own CONNOR O’BRIEN (for Pros!). “I need to talk to Susan to see where they’re going,” Calvert said of Senate Appropriations top Republican SUSAN COLLINS. “The Senate added $21 billion to the topline in emergency spending for defense, which I’m sure will be a topic that we’ll be discussing. I’m not quite sure how we’re going to do that.” Despite a desire by many hawks to hike defense spending, the appropriations bill cleared by the GOP-led House sticks to the limits on security funding. The House eventually must reconcile that bill with a Senate spending bill that includes an extra $21 billion in emergency spending. Conservatives in the House have resisted hiking defense spending, but a deal could boost the entire budget. A compromise isn’t likely to be struck until well after the election.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Clear insight means stronger foresight.
When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | | | TALIBAN RULE TIGHTENS: Afghanistan’s Taliban codified a lengthy set of morality rules this week, including requirements for women to cover their faces, men to grow their beards and drivers to refrain from playing music, Reuters’ MOHAMMAD YUNUS YAWAR AND CHARLOTTE GREENFIELD report. The rules were promoted as in line with Islamic sharia law and would be enforced by the morality ministry, the outlet reports, citing a Justice Ministry spokesperson. They were based on a decree from the group’s supreme spiritual leader two years ago but were recently officially put into law. It’s not clear yet whether the new rules will lead to strict enforcement and more detentions, but thousands of people have been detained by the morality ministry in past years for violations, and rights groups around the world have blasted the Taliban for curbing citizens’ expression of freedom.
| | | — MIRA RESNICK will start Monday as the new deputy assistant secretary of State for Israel and Palestinian affairs and Gulf affairs in the Near Eastern Asia bureau. Resnick moves into the roles from her job overseeing arms sales in the Political-Military Affairs bureau. HuffPost reported that the move alarmed some foreign policy professionals due to Resnick being “hawkish.” A former administration official pushed back on the reporting and told NatSec Daily that Blinken asked her to serve in both roles simultaneously because of “her ability to navigate the bureaucracy, engage with Congress and lead big teams.” FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DAN BENAIM, who served as deputy assistant secretary for Gulf affairs, was pulled over to the White House to do speech writing for Biden a few weeks ago: “It was a personal name request from the White House for him,” the same former admin official told us. “He is returning to his speechwriting roots.”
| | — H.R. McMASTER, The Wall Street Journal: ‘I cannot understand Putin’s hold on Trump’ — ADAM JOHNSON, The Nation: Celebrating at the DNC in a time of genocide — ANDREW CHAKHOYAN, POLITICO: West’s Ukraine policy of incrementalism is appeasement-light — and it’s failing
| | — The Heritage Foundation, 11 a.m.: The U.S. Secret Service before, during, and after the assassination attempt of President Trump Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who would be a terrible U.S. ambassador to Turkey. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who would be a capable diplomat in any post. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment