| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | Presented by the Coalition to Preserve American Jobs | | 
Nikki Haley is releasing her delegates to support Donald Trump at next week's Republican National Convention. | Abbie Parr/AP | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | SCOOP: HALEY RELEASES DELEGATES — Former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY is releasing all of her 97 delegates and urging them to vote for DONALD TRUMP at next week’s Republican National Convention, our colleague Meridith McGraw reports. “The nominating convention is a time for Republican unity,” Haley will say in a statement. “JOE BIDEN is not competent to serve a second term and KAMALA HARRIS would be a disaster for America. We need a president who will hold our enemies to account, secure our border, cut our debt, and get our economy back on track. I encourage my delegates to support Donald Trump next week in Milwaukee.” Asked if Haley is attending the convention, Haley spox CHANEY DENTON said that Haley “was not invited, and she’s fine with that. Trump deserves the convention he wants. She’s made it clear she’s voting for him and wishes him the best.”
|  Despite some calls from House Democrats for Biden to step aside, the caucus reached no consensus on the issue in a private meeting this morning. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | BEHIND CLOSED DOORS — If you’re looking for a consensus opinion on whether President JOE BDEN should continue his presidential campaign, you won’t find it among House Democrats. The caucus emerged from a locked-down, members-only meeting this morning that was described to our colleagues Sarah Ferris, Nicholas Wu, Daniella Diaz and Mia McCarthy as a venting session that “left them no closer to resolving the split that has consumed their party.” The overall mood, according to one source, was that of a “sad and frustrated” get-together. “Several lawmakers who have already called for Biden to step aside made their case, provoking a larger block of the caucus that believes Democrats need to stay united behind the president, according to about a half-dozen members in the room.” House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES opened the confab at the DCCC HQ “with remarks about unity, according to one member, who interpreted those comments as support for Biden. But the New Yorker said little the rest of the meeting, allowing members to spend most of the time speaking to each other on open mics.” What’s notable for the White House is that most of the voices who said Biden should step aside were those who had already publicly said so: Reps. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.), LLOYD DOGGETT (D-Texas) and MIKE QUIGLEY (D-Ill.). Still, many members are thought to be harboring private concerns over the path forward for both Biden and Democrats down-ballot. Senate Democrats — none of whom have called for Biden to vacate the ticket — will have a similar meeting of the minds this afternoon. Poll position: The worse news for Biden comes out of battleground Wisconsin, where a new AARP poll finds him slipping further behind Trump. The topline number has Trump up 50% to 45% over Biden in a head-to-head matchup. If you factor in third party candidates, Trump’s lead grows even larger: 44% to 38% (no other candidate breaks double digits). The poll was conducted from June 28 (the day after the debate) through July 2. Of note: It carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. What might assuage some Democratic fears is that Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.) seems somewhat insulated from the trend: She holds a 50% to 45% lead over Republican challenger ERIC HOVDE. However, our colleague Steve Shepard notes that it would be a historical split: “In the past two presidential elections — 2016 and 2020 — only once has a state voted for a different party for Senate than it did for president.” See the full AARP polling Semafor’s Dave Weigel also points out another troubling trendline for Biden: With Trump leading the RealClearPolitics polling average (at +3.3 as of today), it marks the “first time in 24 years that the GOP nominee has led after the July 4 holiday, going into conventions.” ABOUT FACE — In a story that only Trump world could spin up: Ohio Sen. J.D. VANCE’s trademark beard could be an impediment to becoming Trump’s running mate, The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo writes. “‘J.D. has a beard. But Trump is a clean-shaven guy. He just doesn’t like facial hair,’ a Trump confidant, who wants Vance on the ticket, told The Bulwark. ‘You just never know.’ “So why not shave his face? It’s probably out of the question for Vance because of how young he is and looks. The Ohio senator turns 40 on August 2 and would be the third-youngest vice president to serve. But Trump wants someone who is experienced — or at least looks experienced. And ‘without the beard, Vance looks like he’s 12,’ said another Trump adviser.” BOLD NAVY — “Navy sailor tried to access Biden’s medical records multiple times,” by CBS’ Ed O’Keefe and David Martin: “The sailor accessed the Genesis Medical Health System — the database for the military medical system — three times on Feb. 23, but ‘he did not pull up the right Joe Biden,’ the U.S. official said.” Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from the Coalition to Preserve American Jobs: The National Taxpayer Advocate recently called out IRS for slow rolling Employee Retention Credit processing, “The IRS’ delay in processing these legitimate claims is hurting the very businesses for whom Congress created the ERC.” Small businesses relied on the government’s word when they kept employees on payroll during the pandemic. The IRS is failing to do its part, resulting in a backlog of 1.4 million claims. Urge IRS to lift the moratorium and process the backlog of ERC claims. | | | | | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  As NATO leaders gather in D.C. this week, U.S. officials now say that Russia likely won't make gains in Ukraine in the months ahead. | Noah Berger/AP | 1. WHAT’S INFORMING NATO: As NATO leaders gather in D.C. this week, U.S. officials now say that Russia is “unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as its poorly trained forces struggle to break through Ukrainian defenses that are now reinforced with Western munitions,” NYT’s Julian Barnes and Eric Schmitt report. “Russia’s problems represent a significant change in the dynamic of the war, which had favored Moscow in recent months. “Russian forces continue to inflict pain, but their incremental advances have been slowed by the Ukrainians’ hardened lines. The months ahead will not be easy for Ukraine. But allied leaders gathering in Washington this week for the 75th anniversary of the founding of North Atlantic Treaty Organization can legitimately argue that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.” 2. ABORTION FALLOUT: Here’s the latest warning for candidates who oppose abortion rights ahead of November: “Around 6 in 10 Americans think their state should generally allow a person to obtain a legal abortion if they don’t want to be pregnant for any reason, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research,” Christine Fernando and Amelia Thomson-Deveaux write. “That’s an increase from June 2021, a year before the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to the procedure, when about half of Americans thought legal abortion should be possible under these circumstances. “Americans are largely opposed to the strict bans that have taken effect in Republican-controlled states since the high court’s ruling two years ago. … Seven in 10 Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a slight increase from last year, while about 3 in 10 think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.” Related read: “Texas sends millions to anti-abortion crisis pregnancy centers. It's meant to help needy families, but no one knows if it works,” by ProPublica’s Cassandra Jaramillo, Jeremy Kohler and Sophie Chou and CBS’ Jessica Kegu 3. CAROLINA IN MY MIND: In South Carolina, MICHAEL MOORE (not the filmmaker of the same name) is “waging an against-the-odds campaign to give South Carolina its second Black Democrat in Congress” as he tries to secure the 1st Congressional District even after a GOP-led gerrymander was blessed by the Supreme Court earlier this year, WaPo’s Patrick Marley reports from St. Helena Island. “The majority decision is the latest in a string of rulings under Chief Justice JOHN G. ROBERTS JR. that have made it significantly harder to challenge redistricting plans and voting laws. For Black voters, who have long struggled to gain full political representation in America, the decisions have narrowed what had once been a productive path for ensuring they get equal say.”
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | 4. SPACE TO WATCH: “Immunity Ruling Leaves Judge Facing Tough Calls on Trump’s Election Indictment,” by NYT’s Alan Feuer: “At some point soon, the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity will land back with the judge who is handling the case from which it sprang — the criminal prosecution of Donald J. Trump on charges of plotting to overturn the 2020 election. And when that happens, the judge, TANYA S. CHUTKAN, will face a daunting task. Judge Chutkan will have to sort through the 45-page indictment, making decisions about which of its many allegations can move forward and which will have to be tossed out.” 5. BIG IN THE GARDEN STATE: New Jersey’s premier Democratic power broker, GEORGE NORCROSS, and four of his co-defendants pleaded not guilty this morning to a 13-count indictment accusing him of leading a “criminal enterprise” that took advantage of a state tax incentive program he and his close allies helped design, Matt Friedman writes. Elsewhere in New Jersey: “Bob Menendez helped a friend land a dream job. Then he landed on the witness stand,” by Ry Rivard 6. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: “U.S. Allies Issue Rare Warning on Chinese Hacking Group,” by WSJ’s Mike Cherney: “Tuesday’s advisory was a rare instance of Washington’s major allies in the Pacific and elsewhere joining to sound the alarm on China’s cyber activity. … The warning marked the first time South Korea and Japan joined with Australia in attributing malicious cyber activity to China. It was also the first time that Australia — which has been reluctant to point the finger at China, its largest trading partner — led such an effort, according to a person familiar with the matter.” 7. MEDIAWATCH: “USA Today transformed the media world for good. What’s its legacy now?” by WaPo’s Paul Farhi: “Once so ubiquitous — from its distinctive newspaper boxes and copies landing at hotel room doors nationwide — USA Today has lost much of its visibility while contending with the same economic pressures challenging all media outlets, such as a shrinking readership and an evaporating ad base.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | IN MEMORIAM — “Former U.S. Sen. James Inhofe has died at 89,” by the Tulsa World’s Randy Krehbiel and Tim Stanley: “At 36 years, Inhofe, a one-time Tulsa mayor, was the longest-serving congressman in Oklahoma history. He was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1986, before jumping to the Senate in 1994. He was reelected for the final time in 2020 to a term running through 2026, but retired two years into it. He attributed the decision in part to the lingering effects of COVID-19. All told, Inhofe served 28 years as a U.S. Senator, his longest and most influential role.” MEDIA MOVE — Olivia Nuzzi is launching an interview series with Bloomberg, titled “Working Capital,” a six-episode run with political and business leaders. More from Variety OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at a Washington AI Network event at the House at 1229 hosted by Tammy Haddad, where speakers included Polina Zvyagina, Austin Carson, Daniela Combe and Annie Hartley: Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), James Roscoe, Senay Bulbul, David Ginsberg, Donnie Fowler, Lynda Carter, Elham Tabassi, Oceane Thieriot, Cat Zakrzewski, Elizabeth Falcone, Luke Nickless, Ted Johnson, Kathy O'Hearn, Anthony Polcari, Elizabeth Schulze, Oma Seddiq, Sumi Somaskanda and Savannah Bolender. ENGAGED — Jessica Lovejoy, VP of campaigns at 50+1 Strategies, and Emily Dean-McKinney, director of recruitment and partnerships at Relentless, got engaged this weekend in Lewes, Delaware. They met through friends after working on many Democratic campaigns. Pic … Another pic — Andrew Wilson, research software engineer at Oxford University and an Olympic gold medalist swimmer for Team USA in Tokyo 2020, and Adeline DeYoung, who was most recently senior policy adviser for Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.), got engaged on Thursday during a walk along the Thames River in Oxford. The two met in D.C. in the spring of 2022. Pic … Another pic WEDDINGS — Brendan Shields, staff director of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Paula Tavares, senior legal and gender specialist at the World Bank, got married on Saturday at L’auberge Chez Francois in Great Falls, Va. Robb Watters officiated. The couple met 11 years ago in D.C. Pic ... Another pic … SPOTTED: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), Bennett and Claire Duval, Martin and Christin Baker, Barry Jackson and Laura Fullerton. — Will Ryan, a government and investigations associate at Jenner & Block and House Oversight and Obama White House alum, and Annika Lichtenbaum, a sanctions associate at Hogan Lovells and David Cicilline alum, got married Friday at Kilkea Castle in Kildare, Ireland. The two met in 2016 at their first class at Harvard Law School. Pic … Another pic — Madison Alexander, director of donor comms at the America First Policy Institute, and Ryan Leonard, commercial real estate adviser at SVN, got married at the Lightner Museum in St. Augustine, Florida, on June 21. The two met at an escape room in D.C. nearly three years ago and had cherry blossom trees at the wedding to commemorate the city where they met. Pic … Another pic TRANSITIONS — Jared Kaplan is now chief innovation and information officer at Lowenstein Sandler. He most recently was chief technology officer for Teneo. … Andrew Peng is joining the Biden-Harris campaign as Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander spokesperson. He most recently was comms adviser at the White House Initiative on Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders and co-founded the nonprofit newsroom The Yappie. … … Stephen Byron is joining SIFMA as managing director, head of technology, operations and business continuity. He previously was VP and operations senior leader of equities post trade transformation and strategy at Goldman Sachs. … Gerald Moody is joining Akin as a white collar defense & government investigations partner. He previously was assistant chief of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in DOJ’s Criminal Division’s Fraud Section. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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