| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Trumpworld is making its presence known at NATO’s 75th anniversary fest, even if they aren’t inside the Washington Convention Center itself. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Top people in DONALD TRUMP’s orbit have a message for NATO summit attendees: This may all be for naught. The three-day spectacle will feature some major developments, with the alliance’s declaration that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is “irreversible” chief among them. But the problem for transatlanticists is Trump’s confidants are already signaling that the Republican candidate might unwind much of what is agreed to in Washington should he recapture the Oval Office in November. RIC GRENELL, a key Trump foreign policy adviser who is considered a potential secretary of State pick, wants incoming NATO Secretary General MARK RUTTE replaced because his home country, the Netherlands, doesn’t spend at least 2 percent of its GDP on defense. And Trump will likely be advised to shutter an alliance office in Kyiv and lengthen Ukraine’s already long path to NATO membership. A person close to Trump, granted anonymity to detail discussions with the former president, said that while the presumptive Republican nominee is thinking far more about the election and domestic issues right now, he is likely to revel in the idea of undoing whatever President JOE BIDEN and allies have designed. Trump also will rankle at any move that hints of the U.S. wading deeper into a foreign war. “He definitely won’t like what’s coming,” the person said. It’s unclear that Trump could single-handedly derail NATO plans, such as moving the functions of a U.S.-led group of allies that coordinate military aid for Ukraine under NATO’s auspices. The U.S. may be the bloc’s most powerful nation, but 31 other nations at least get a say as to what the alliance does. KAROLINE LEAVITT, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, said Europe has only seen “death and destruction” since Biden came to power. “When President Trump returns to the Oval Office, he will restore peace and rebuild American strength and deterrence on the world stage.” Members of Trump’s orbit — even high-up people like Grenell — don’t directly speak for Trump, though they have a good sense of what his second-term foreign policy might look like, partly because they could have a hand in shaping it. Some of them are also advising Trump to care less about NATO and Ukraine, push European allies to prioritize their own defense and focus on competing against China or thwarting Iranian aggression in the Middle East. Still, Trumpworld is making its presence known at NATO’s 75th anniversary fest, even if they aren’t inside the Washington Convention Center itself. Grenell had dinner Sunday evening with Macedonian Prime Minister HRISTIJAN MICKOSKI and breakfast Monday with senior Turkish officials at the Waldorf — site of the former Trump hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue. Three officials from NATO countries confirmed they are actively seeking out former Trump administration figures or people close to the Republican to suss out how Trump would handle transatlantic relations this time around. And what they’ve generally heard is a softer message from the former president’s team, that Trump won’t withdraw the U.S. from NATO and is only making such threats to scare Europeans into spending more for their own defenses. But allied concerns remain. Trump also has a pile of reports from — and held a slew of briefings with — confidants and former officials on what to do about Ukraine should he win. During the first presidential debate with Biden, Trump vowed to negotiate peace between Ukraine and Russia after the election but before the inauguration, a claim that has Ukrainian officials worried that the U.S. under Trump would push Kyiv to accept it had lost territory by force. As much as some allies would like to “Trump-proof” the alliance while in Washington, the whispered truth is that such a thing is a myth. “There's no practical way to shield the alliance from a recalcitrant U.S., given our centrality,” said KORI SCHAKE, director of foreign and defense studies at the American Enterprise Institute. On a related note, here are a few must-read NATO pieces from our team to keep you in the know during this chaotic week: 12 people to keep an eye on at the NATO summit Divided, reshuffled and politically bruised: Europe’s leaders head to the NATO summit KEIR STARMER meets the world Can Norway persuade Trump on NATO? Wanted: New European ‘Trump whisperer’ to save transatlantic alliance
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | MORE AIR DEFENSE FOR UKRAINE: NATO allies will announce Ukraine will receive nine more “Patriot-like” air defense systems by the end of the year, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scoop. A Ukrainian deputy prime minister, OLHA STEFANISHYNA, told our own PAUL McLEARY that at least four air defense systems are coming, beyond the first five to be announced. Those systems, which U.S. and NATO officials previously confirmed, include a Patriot battery from Spain and components for another Patriot from Sweden. Stefanishyna added that allies will make additional announcements on Patriot interceptors and Stinger missiles. ZELENSKYY TALKS GOP: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is slated to deliver a high-stakes speech to conservatives tonight as he tries to shore up support for Kyiv during this week’s NATO summit, our own JOE GOULD reports (for Pros!). Zelenskyy, in an appearance before the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute, will plead his case both for more aid and acceptance into the alliance — two topics Republicans are divided on. The conservative think tank is aligned with the internationalist wing of the Republican Party, making it a strong supporter of continued Ukraine aid. NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG, meanwhile, made an appearance of his own on the Nationals mound Monday, throwing heat. And apparently, TONY P is a NATO ambassador in his own regard. Read: Ukraine builds a NATO-lite while it waits for the real thing by VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA MOSCOW NOT MOVING FORWARD: It’s unlikely that Russia will be able to make big territorial gains in the coming months since its poorly trained forces are facing Ukrainian frontlines reinforced with Western assistance, U.S. officials told The New York Times’ JULIAN BARNES and ERIC SCHMITT. Despite Russia’s push in the spring and early summer to make gains in the Kharkiv region, its forces have largely been stopped and have suffered thousands of casualties while gaining little territory. On the flip side, American officials say the U.S. has to make long-term commitments to Ukraine to allow Kyiv to hold the frontlines and do damage against Russia. “American officials say privately that it will be all but impossible for Ukraine to win back all its territory, but that it can insist on more European integration if its performance on the battlefield is stronger,” the Times writes. “Some officials say that even without formally winning back its land, Ukraine could still emerge a victor in the war by moving closer to NATO and Europe.” U.S. officials also said that Moscow could make more headway on the frontlines if it expands its military draft and training programs, among other strategic shifts. GAZA HOSPITALS STRUGGLE: Hospitals in the northern parts of the Gaza Strip are having difficulty treating patients and providing much-needed aid as Israeli forces raid Gaza City, local officials and hospital administrators say. As The Washington Post’s LEO SANDS and HAZEM BALOUSHA report, Palestinian officials say patients and ambulances can’t reach Gaza City’s al-Ahli Hospital because the fighting has made the area too dangerous. The al-Ahli and Patient’s Friends Benevolent Society hospitals have effectively stopped functioning as of Monday evening, per the World Health Organization. Israeli troops remained in the city this morning, the Gazan officials say, including around the U.N. Relief and Works Agency headquarters. Residents continued to flee the area today, while Israel says it killed some 150 militants in the past week, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and RAMADAN ABED report. Hamas leaders have warned that the renewed fighting could harm progress on cease-fire negotiations. HIGH STAKES IN HAITI: The leader of the Kenyan-led multinational force in Haiti said there’s “no room for failure” as the police prepare for more direct conflict with gangs wreaking havoc on the country’s capital, The Associated Press’ EVENS SANON reports. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Ramping Up to Meet NATO’s Needs
Lockheed Martin has been steadily ramping production of proven programs like GMLRS, HIMARS and PAC-3 to meet growing demand and advance NATO deterrence. Learn more. | | | | | THE GOP’S NATSEC VISION: The Republican National Committee approved this year’s GOP platform, and there are a lot of interesting details for NatSec Daily readers to note. The party platform says that the U.S. will pursue a foreign policy of “peace through strength,” echoing messaging from Trump allies like ROBERT O’BRIEN. The document pledges support for Israel and partners in the Indo-Pacific. It also calls for military modernization, securing the border, reviving the industrial base and protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. Expect a tough line on NATO. In a thinly veiled swipe at NATO member states that have yet to meet defense spending targets, the platform says that Republicans will strengthen alliances by “ensuring that our Allies must meet their obligations to invest in our Common Defense and by restoring peace in Europe.”
| | IRAN INFLUENCE OPS: Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES today accused the Iranian government of posing as activists online to fuel Israel-Gaza protests in the U.S. “In recent weeks, Iranian government actors have sought to opportunistically take advantage of ongoing protests regarding the war in Gaza, using a playbook we’ve seen other actors use over the years,” Haines said in a statement. “We have observed actors tied to Iran’s government posing as activists online, seeking to encourage protests, and even providing financial support to protesters.” Pro-Palestine activists prominently protested on college campuses earlier this year and events in Washington featuring senior lawmakers and State Department officials are frequently disrupted by protesters criticizing American support for Israel’s war in Gaza. RUSSIA PLOT FOILED: A deputy editor-in-chief at Russia’s premier state-run news agency used software powered by artificial intelligence to spread Kremlin propaganda within the U.S. and other allied countries, according to court documents unsealed today. As our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports (for Pros!), the unnamed individual and other employees of Russia Today later worked with Russian intelligence to enhance the reach of the program and disseminate narratives approved by the Kremlin on social media platform X, the Justice Department found. HEZBOLLAH’S LOW-TECH HIJINKS: Hezbollah is going analog to thwart Israeli intelligence efforts, according to Reuters’ MAYA GEBEILY and LAILA BASSAM. The Iranian-backed proxy is using pagers, coded messages and landline phones as it seeks to evade surveillance from Israel. Cell phones have been banned on the battlefield and Hezbollah is resorting to a private fixed-line network they developed in the early 2000s. Hezbollah is also deploying drones to attack and better study Israel’s intelligence-gathering capabilities in the hopes of “blinding” their foe.
| | | | PRACTICING THEIR TRUMP WHISPER: Three defense ministers from Europe’s most vulnerable countries are thoroughly prepared to make their case to Trump if he returns to the presidency, our own MILES J. HERSZENHORN reports. Estonian Defense Minister HANNO PEVKUR used Trump-friendly language to call for increased defense spending from NATO countries, likening the military alliance to an exclusive golf club. “NATO is a club. When you have club rules, then you respect the rules and you expect that everyone will also respect the rules,” Pevkur said. “When you pay your fee in the golf club, you can play. It doesn’t matter how big is your wallet.” “This is my understanding also,” he added. TOKYO TOUTS NATO TIES: Deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang illuminate the need for Tokyo to strengthen its ties with NATO, Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA said. In written remarks obtained by Reuters’ YUKIKO TOYODA and JOHN GEDDIE ahead of his arrival in Washington, Kishida also hinted at Japan’s concerns over China’s ties with Russia amid the war in Ukraine. Kishida, along with the leaders of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, will attend the NATO summit this week.
| | RISCH’S CHINA PUSH: The top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee wants NATO members to address the dangers that an ascendant China poses to Europe, our own PHELIM KINE reports (for Pros!). In a report released just ahead of the start of the NATO summit, Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) warns that while the alliance is “aware of scenarios where China might be an actor in a military conflict in Europe … unfortunately, this work has not been translated into actual military planning.” NATO, he continues, should prepare for a scenario where the U.S. has to redirect assets to the Pacific and NATO has to step up as the main deterrent against Russian aggression. As Phelim writes, Risch’s entreaties may find traction among NATO officials, who “are spooked by China’s military intimidation tactics in the Taiwan Strait and by Beijing’s increasingly aggressive incursions into Philippine waters of the South China Sea.”
| | | |   | | | | | UKRAINE LASHES MODI: Zelenskyy is angry that Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI went in for that bear hug with VLADIMIR PUTIN during his trip to Moscow this week, our own ELENA GIORDANO reports. The Indian leader’s visit to the Kremlin, which saw Modi tour the grounds of Putin’s residence and embrace the Russian leader in a scene widely circulated on social media, came on the heels of Monday’s deadly Russian airstrikes against Kyiv. Russian missiles targeted a children’s hospital in the Ukrainian capital that serves as a cancer treatment hub. Modi has not addressed the strikes, but praised relations between the two countries today, calling Russia a “reliable friend.” “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” Zelenskyy wrote on X. THE NEXT PESKOV? Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN underlined Putin’s position on Ukraine in a leaked letter so thoroughly, our European colleagues write, that he could have been auditioning for the role of Kremlin spokesperson. The missive, addressed to European Council President CHARLES MICHEL and shared with other members of the European Council, lays out Putin’s thinking about the status of his war in Ukraine — and what Orbán reckons the EU’s next steps should be. Orbán told Michel that, according to Putin, “time is not on the side of Ukraine, but on the side of the Russian forces,” without providing evidence for the battlefield analysis. The letter, dated July 5 and broken down into nine points, also makes no reference to the fact that Putin was the one who launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Read: EU officials fume over Orbán’s renegade diplomatic mission to see Putin by our own CSONGOR KÖRÖMI and BARBARA MOENS FAMILY AFFAIR: A Moscow city court issued an arrest warrant today for YULIA NAVALNAYA, the widow of late Kremlin critic ALEXEI NAVALNY, on charges of “participation in an extremist organization,” our own ELENA GIORDANO reports.
| | — Former DOD Acting Deputy Undersecretary for Policy MARA KARLIN will be a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Ramping Up to Meet NATO’s Needs
Lockheed Martin is prioritizing speed, agility and adaptability in its production processes, using digital transformation to ensure customers stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | — Rep. NANCY PELOSI and SVETLANA TIKHANOVSKAYA, The Washington Post: NATO is a bulwark against tyranny — Center for Strategic and International Studies: NATO futures series — FREDERIC WEHREY and ANDREW WEISS, Foreign Affairs: The right way for America to counter Russia in Africa
| | — The Atlantic Council, the Center for a New American Security, the German Marshall Fund of the United States, GLOBSEC and the Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: 2024 NATO Public Forum. — Inter-American Dialogue, 10 a.m.: Venezuela's electoral conditions in comparative perspective. — Council on Foreign Relations, 12:30 p.m.: U.S.-China macroeconomic engagement and dialogue with Chinese leadership on overcapacity and economic imbalances. — United States Institute of Peace, 4 p.m.: China-Taiwan Competition: Why it matters for peace and stability in the pacific. — Jews United for Democracy, 8 p.m.: Legal aspects of the war against Israel Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who definitely won’t like what we have coming this week. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who thwarts Rosie’s efforts to “Matt-and -Eric-proof” this newsletter.
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