Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Patience is wearing thin with Biden’s Venezuela caution

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Jul 30, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Matt Berg

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez ride atop a truck during a protest against official presidential election results declaring President Nicolas Maduro the winner in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 30, 2024.

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez ride atop a truck during a protest against official presidential election results declaring President Nicolas Maduro the winner in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 30, 2024. | Matias Delacroix/AP

With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn, Joe Gould and Phelim Kine 

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Pressure is growing on the White House to more decisively condemn Sunday’s election in Venezuela as fraudulent and rigged in favor of Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO and to rally regional players.

On Monday, the Biden administration voiced “serious concerns” about Sunday’s vote, which the Venezuelan government claimed saw Maduro narrowly defeat opposition candidate EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ. But it stopped short of teeing up new sanctions against Caracas or accusing Maduro of vote fraud, saying it’s waiting for more detailed results from Sunday’s voting before making a definitive statement.

Republicans, especially those who represent large Venezuelan communities in Florida, have called on the administration to go further in its condemnation and join nine Latin American countries that are pushing for a full recount of the votes. And some Democrats are subtly moving ahead in their own messaging, calling for the administration to criticize alleged vote tampering and work with regional allies to defuse the crisis.

At a committee hearing today, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) said, “I think it's absolutely essential that we be clear that Maduro was not elected president of Venezuela.” He also called for the U.S. to join Brazil and Colombia in pushing the Maduro regime to release detailed precinct-by-precinct vote counts, which are required under Venezuela’s constitution.

“All indications are that [Maduro] is in the process of trying to steal this election,” said Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.). “They’ve got to work with our allies and with regional partners to try to come up with a joint strategy.”

In a statement, National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said there are “clear signs that the election results announced by Venezuela’s National Electoral Council do not reflect the will of the Venezuelan people as it was expressed at the ballot box on July 28,” but again stopped short of explicitly calling the election fraudulent. She also reiterated the administration’s push for Venezuela “to release full, transparent, and detailed voting results, including by polling station.”

President JOE BIDEN also spoke with Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA today. Lula, who has maintained warm ties with Caracas throughout his political career, is seen as one of the regional leaders best positioned to negotiate with Maduro about a potential exit plan.

The calls for more decisive action mount as supporters of González have taken to the streets of major Venezuelan cities, decrying the country’s Sunday election and even knocking down statues of Maduro’s popular predecessor HUGO CHÁVEZ, per Reuters’ DEISY BUITRAGO and MAYELA ARMAS. Three protesters have been killed and over 40 have been injured across the country.

And there are no signs that Maduro and his allies will back down — the country’s defense minister VLADIMIR PADRINO accused the opposition today of staging a coup “supported by North American imperialism and its allies.” Venezuelan police have also arrested opposition activists, including prominent leader FREDDY SUPERLANO.

Maduro also said he would release results in the coming days, blaming an “attack” on the country’s electricity grid for the delays, per Bloomberg’s SIMONE IGLESIAS.

Critics say that it is long overdue for Washington to reimpose sanctions on Caracas and spearhead a solution to the standoff, as opposed to waiting for Brazil and Colombia to take initiative and defuse the crisis.

“We can't wait for Colombia and Brazil to dictate our foreign policy," said CARLOS TRUJILLO, who served as ambassador to the Organization of American States under DONALD TRUMP. The Biden administration, he noted, was heavily engaged with the Barbados negotiations that saw Washington give Caracas sanctions relief in exchange for guarantees of a free and fair election.

“They didn't let Brazil lead the process, they didn't let Colombia lead the process, they didn't let a multinational group lead the process,” Trujillo continued. “They led it with Norway. They have to own it."

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The Inbox

WAR WATCH: The Israel Defense Forces said it conducted an airstrike against a Hezbollah commander in the suburbs of Beirut, as the U.S. again pledged to defend Israel if the Iran-backed militant group continues its attacks from Lebanon.

“I don’t believe that a fight is inevitable,” Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN told reporters today in Manila. “We would like to see things resolved in a diplomatic fashion,” he said, but “if Israel is attacked, yes, we will help Israel defend itself. We’ve been clear about that from the very beginning.”

Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) told our own MILES J. HERSZENHORN that he doesn’t believe Israel’s strike in Lebanon was a proportional response to the deadly weekend rocket strike: “Good start,” he said. “I expect more.”

Other countries are preparing for the worst. European officials and leaders are desperately trying to avoid a regional war in the Middle East following a rocket attack that killed a dozen children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend, our own LAURA KAYALI reports.

Countries including France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom have in the past few days reached out to counterparts in Lebanon, Israel and Iran in efforts to convince them to show restraint. On Monday, a National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY also told reporters the U.S. has been having conversations with partners about the issue.

Today, Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI urged the Israeli government not to fall into the “trap” of retaliation, adding she was “very, very worried” about the situation in Lebanon. Speaking from China, she suggested Beijing could use its “solid ties” with Iran and Saudi Arabia to help defuse the situation.

OUT OF KHAN YOUNIS: Thousands of Palestinians returned today to the Gazan city of Khan Younis, which has been ravaged by a weeklong Israeli operation to root out Hamas militants, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and MOHAMMAD SALEM report. Gaza health officials say the operation killed some 250 people, and Israel’s military said they killed about 150 militants.

KIM GETTING SLIM? North Korean leader KIM JONG UN has gained weight and may have high blood pressure and diabetes because of obesity-related problems, The Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reported late Monday.

“Some observers said Kim, who is about 170 centimeters (5 feet, 7 inches) tall and previously weighed 140 kilograms (308 pounds), appeared to have lost a large amount of weight in 2021, likely from changing his diet. But recent state media footage show he has regained the weight,” the AP writes.

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil.

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ELECTION 2024

RED, WHITE AND BIGLY BLUE: Former President DONALD TRUMP may be itching to change the colors on Air Force One no matter the cost, our own LEE HUDSON, DANIEL LIPPMAN and CONNOR O’BRIEN report.

An adviser to Trump told our colleagues that the former president and Republican nominee would “absolutely” push to change the colors of the presidential plane from the current Kennedy-era light blue and white to a red, white and dark blue color scheme he designed himself. The colors of the presidential plane were a cause celebre for Trump during his first time in office, but Boeing warned that the changes would require expensive re-engineering to ensure plane parts were insulated properly and not susceptible to extreme heats.

“The model was on the coffee table in the Oval Office and he pointed it out many times to foreign and domestic visitors,” said a person familiar with Trump’s thinking. “He thought it represented America more and represented strength, the red, white and blue.”

OVER THE MOON: Political leaders in the space industry are excited that Sen. MARK KELLY — a former astronaut — has emerged as a top contender to join Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ ticket, Miles and CHRISTINE MUI report.

Sen. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.) and NASA Administrator BILL NELSON sang Kelly’s praises today at a POLITICO event. They touted Kelly’s national security chops and his efforts to care for former representative GABBY GIFFORDS, his wife, after she was shot in the head during an event with constituents in Tucson, Arizona.

“He’s close to a national hero, so he’d be a perfect, amazing pick,” Hickenlooper said.

 

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Keystrokes

BILL IS COOL WITH ELON: Nelson isn’t concerned that billionaire eccentric Elon Musk is the head of SpaceX, one of the U.S. government’s main launch providers, even as Musk espouses his political views publicly.

“If it gets in the way, it would bother me quite a bit,” Nelson said, when asked if Musk’s personality could affect U.S. launch capability. “The good news is that Elon leaves the running of SpaceX to GWYNNE SHOTWELL, and she is fantastic,” he told Matt at the space event, referring to the company’s chief operating officer.

Nelson said he has spoken with Musk and Blue Origin head JEFF BEZOS multiple times, calling them both “agreeable.”

“Both of them understand the importance of what we're doing, and I'm very confident in both of those companies,” Nelson said. “And the proof’s in the pudding. Look at the success of the Falcon 9. Look at the success of our commercial partners.”

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket — which has successfully launched dozens of missions in recent months — recently suffered a rare failure, raising concerns that the U.S. government relies heavily on few major industry partners for its space launch capabilities.

But Nelson isn’t sweating it.

“I’m not worried about the Falcon 9. They knew exactly what happened,” he said. “They know exactly what the problem was and they got it fixed.”

Read: 5 takeaways from POLITICO’s Go for Launch event by Matt

WHO’S AFRAID OF HUAWEI? U.S. efforts to weaken Chinese tech giant Huawei are no longer thwarting the company’s growth and expansion around the world, The Wall Street Journal’s LIZA LIN, STU WOO and RAFFAELE HUANG reported Monday night.

 

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The Complex

PRESIDENT’S PICKS MOVE ON: The Senate Armed Services Committee today advanced Biden administration nominees to oversee Pentagon cyber and intelligence efforts, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!).

Senators approved MICHAEL SULMEYER, Biden's pick to serve as assistant secretary for cyber policy, and TONYA WILKERSON, the administration's nominee to be undersecretary for intelligence and security. The two nominees were approved by voice vote.

Both picks must still be confirmed by the full Senate, though there's little time to do so before senators leave Thursday for a recess that stretches into September. The pair could be confirmed if all senators agree to quickly consider and confirm them. The Senate typically attempts to confirm dozens of uncontroversial nominees in late July or early August to clear the decks before the long recess, though it's unclear if any senators would attempt to hold them up.

MONEY FOR MANILA: Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.) is pushing to add $2.5 billion for the Philippines to the Senate’s annual defense policy bill to bolster its defenses against China, but he's facing a roadblock: SFRC Chair Cardin, our own JOE GOULD reports.

The bill — cosponsored by Hagerty, a former ambassador to Japan, and Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) — proposes $500 million a year in Foreign Military Financing grant assistance to the Philippines from 2025 to 2029. The goal is to counter China’s aggression and strengthen U.S.-Philippines security ties.

“The timeliness of it is quite obvious,” Hagerty told Joe. “The amount of pressure [China] is putting on the region is significant, and the Philippines want to work with us — and the Japanese as well. This is an opportunity to step up and really make it count.”

But Cardin told Joe that human rights issues in the Philippines are a concern for him, despite acknowledging progress under the Marcos administration.

“I would doubt I would sign off on that,” Cardin said. “It has to go through committee … and not directly to the floor. I have significant concerns about extrajudicial activities and abuses. They’re on the pathway to correct a lot, but I have had concerns.”

On a related note, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and DefSec Austin announced a one-time $500 million in security assistance today for the Philippines following talks with counterparts in Manila, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. The Biden administration has also budgeted $128 million to improve infrastructure at the nine Philippine military bases that the U.S. has access to in times of emergency under the bilateral Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DEVELOPMENT AGAINST CHINA: A bipartisan pair of senators introduced legislation today that would require the State Department and USAID to submit an annual unfunded priorities list to Congress.

The Fully Funding Our National Security Priorities Act from Kaine and TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.), both members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, would aim to ensure both agencies have what they need as the U.S. works to counter China.

“China is rapidly expanding its diplomatic footprint around the world. Now is not the time to cut resources at the State Department and USAID. We should be doing the exact opposite,” Kaine said in a statement. Kaine and Young filed the bill as an amendment to the FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act.

The heads of both agencies would have to submit an annual report to Congress on their unfunded programs, activities and mission requirements. The military services and intelligence community submit unfunded priorities lists to Congress as part of the annual budget process, the lawmakers pointed out.

BASHING BLINKEN ON BURMA: A bipartisan group of senators, including the top Democrat and top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the U.S. should adopt a “revitalized approach” to its policy on Myanmar, formerly Burma, in a letter today to Blinken and USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER.

The letter, which was also co-signed by Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL (R-Ky.), JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.) and Young, expressed concern with “what appears to be a failure to meet the moment regarding the evolving situation in Burma.”

Broadsides

BAKU WANTS THE GOODS: One of Azerbaijan’s top diplomats said that Armenia’s government needs to move past messaging and make progress on settling the countries’ decades-long territorial dispute.

Speaking at the Hudson Institute today, ELCHIN AMIRBAYOV, a representative of Azerbaijani President ILHAM ALIYEV on special diplomatic assignments, said Azerbaijan expects Armenian Prime Minister NIKOL PASHINYAN to deliver on his government’s position that the country has no claims over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.

“The most difficult part was already done by him, when he openly acknowledged that he has no territorial claims to Azerbaijan,” Amirbayov said. “Now what is expected from him is to bring into conformity his rhetoric and his political statement, which I acknowledge is a way forward, with the real situation on the ground.”

Amirbayov’s comments come as governments in the South Caucasus inch closer toward deals to settle territorial disputes left over from the collapse of the Soviet Union and mend fences after centuries of war and ethnic violence in the region. Turkey and Armenia resumed talks to normalize ties, which have been effectively severed since the Armenian Genocide of the early 20th century. And Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to claim progress on a lasting peace deal that would delineate the official border between the two countries and address thorny questions about citizenship rights for inhabitants of disputed enclaves.

Transitions

GREGORY BREW has been tapped to be an analyst with Eurasia Group's Energy, Climate and Resources team, focusing on the geopolitics of oil and gas. He also serves as Eurasia Group's country analyst for Iran. He was previously a Kissinger Visiting Scholar at the Jackson School for Global Affairs at Yale University.

— The Asia Group is expanding its Indo-Pacific defense and national security practice for Australia, AUKUS and high-tech maritime capabilities with three new senior advisers: retired Adm. JOHN RICHARDSON, the former chief of naval operations; ABRAHAM DENMARK, the former adviser to DefSec Austin for AUKUS; and KATHRYN PAIK, the former National Security Council director for the Pacific islands and Southeast Asia.

— Veterans Affairs Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH will step down following the election, Bloomberg’s BRODY FORD, RILEY GRIFFIN and FIONA RUTHERFORD report.

What to Read

BRIAN WINTER, Americas Quarterly: Nicolás Maduro goes ‘full Ortega’

JEREMY HODGE, War on the Rocks: The Islamic State keeps finding opportunities

JAKE WERNER, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: A program for progressive China policy

Tomorrow Today

National University of Singapore, 4:30 a.m.: Secretary of State Antony Blinken participates in a discussion with Singapore Ambassador-at-Large CHAN HENG CHEE
.
The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 8 a.m.: Examining Saudi Arabia’s global humanitarian aid and relief program.

The Defense Strategies Institute, 9 a.m.: 2024 DOD Energy and Power Summit.

The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Justice fair play initiative: Private sector views of justice in Colombia.

Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, 11 a.m.: People’s Republic of China cyber threats.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: Rising seas triggered climate lawsuits: What now?

Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: The future of Ukraine’s economic recovery.

Thanks to our editor, Grace Maalouf, who rigged the vote to be Rosie’s substitute today.

Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who international observers believe should have been our rightful editor.

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