| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | Presented by ExxonMobil | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | |  VP Kamala Harris runs better than President Joe Biden but behind the average alternative in a new polling. | AFP via Getty Images | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE READING — This polling memo (h/t JMart) from BlueLabs Analytics is circulating among party officials still keen to convince JOE BIDEN to step aside and prevent his party from suffering what many fear will be a historic loss to DONALD TRUMP. The topline findings from interviews with over 15,000 voters in seven battleground states:
- “Alternative Democratic candidates run ahead of President Biden by an average of three points across the battleground states. Nearly every tested Democrat performs better than the President. This includes Vice President [KAMALA] HARRIS who runs better than the President (but behind the average alternative).”
- “Some of the gains are coming from winning undecideds and those previously supporting a third party. However, alternative candidates are also pulling votes from Donald Trump. All candidates continue to hold the Democratic base.”
- “Voters are looking for a fresh face. Those more closely tied to the current administration perform relatively worse than other tested candidates.”
The data here opens a new front in the fight to replace Biden, strongly arguing that the best chance to defeat Trump is with a new Democratic nominee independent of the incumbent administration. In other words: not Kamala Harris. The strongest potential candidates are (in alphabetical order) Arizona Sen. MARK KELLY, Maryland Gov. WES MOORE, Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO and Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER. All four outpaced Biden “by roughly 5 points across battleground states.” This data supports the views of strategists like JAMES CARVILLE and those arguing that blindly rallying around Harris would be as big a mistake as blindly supporting Biden’s reelection was. “Nearly twice as many voters say delegates should nominate the best candidate over picking the next in line,” the memo says. This faction of the #DumpBiden movement wants an open process to replace Biden — who, by the way, still says he has no intention of stepping aside. On Monday, we checked in with one of the leaders of the effort in Congress, who gave us this update. “The shooting clearly helped the strategy of Biden’s team to run out the clock,” this Democratic lawmaker said. “It also stopped what would have been a number of members going public after the very unhelpful calls with members on Saturday. But it’s not over. Senior D leaders have not changed their minds that Biden needs to get out. I think a final push will come once the R convention ends on Thursday.” Yesterday, this same person told Playbook, “Quiet efforts continue to urge the president to step aside, and team Biden remains dug in.”
|  Saturday’s assassination attempt bonded together factions of the GOP, but behind the scenes there are notable cracks in the unity. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | CRACKS IN THE UNITY FAÇADE — For two days, the Republican Party has shown a remarkable level of unity in Milwaukee. Saturday’s assassination attempt bonded together all the quarrelsome factions of the GOP that we have grown so used to covering. (Remember the House Speaker’s race?) But behind the scenes of the made-for-primetime programming, there are notable cracks in the unity here. The source of the tension is what it’s been ever since June 16, 2015: the tectonic plates of the old Republican Party and the Trump insurgency crashing against each other in fits and starts to create something new. This morning, we’ll take stock of the notable changes happening off-stage in Milwaukee that are being papered over by the understandable effect of what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania.
|  By picking Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, Donald Trump has inflamed the most passionate fight in the Republican Party. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | By picking Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) as his running mate, Trump has inflamed the most passionate fight in the Republican Party. Jonathan Martin is out this morning with a detailed rundown of what the internationalists, who recently seemed to be ascendant, are thinking after Trump chose the most hardline anti-interventionist in the Senate as his number two. “While toeing the party line and praising Vance in their public comments, in private the interventionists ranged from horrified to merely alarmed that one of the loudest critics of aiding Ukraine could soon be first in line for the presidency,” JMart writes. “The grimaces, sighs and whispered frustrations from the old guard as they made their way through the convention reception circuit were easy to find in the day after the selection.” Some of the reactions he hunted down as he roamed the Fiserv Forum:
- “Representative KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.), who oversees military spending as the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee chair, told one associate, according to a person familiar the exchange: ‘The Ukrainians better hurry up and win.’”
- “Another influential congressional Republican simply told me about the Vance selection: ‘I’m scared to death.’”
- “On Monday night, TOMMY HICKS, a close friend of Trump’s son and former RNC co-chair, sent an email to KARL ROVE, the former GEORGE W. BUSH strategist, who had praised North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM as a potential running mate. ‘Karl – you fucked up,’ Hicks wrote in the note, which has been forwarded to others, who showed me, in the day since, ‘We will remember.’”
- In their despair, the anti-Vance wing has started to plot how to box the veep out by pushing to stock a second Trump presidency with their own kind. Sen. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.), who is running to lead Senate Republicans, told JMart, “It would be good, as they think about populating their cabinet and these key agencies and positions, to make sure that all those voices within the Republican heritage when It comes to national security policy are heard.”
- “No less a dedicated Vance supporter than DONALD TRUMP JR. said the selection of the Ohioan represented a win but not the end of the internecine war. ‘I don’t know if it ever ends, right?’ Trump told me when I asked if he was ready to declare victory.”
Meanwhile, Adam Wren, Olivia Beavers, and Megan Messerly take stock of all the ways the convention is putting on display deep changes in the Republican Party, including:
- “Increasingly embracing economic populism at home and isolationism abroad”
- “shifting its decades-long position on abortion”
- becoming “not only leery of, but hostile to, certain business interests,” a shift exemplified by the stemwinder delivered by Teamsters President SEAN O’BRIEN on Monday night.
Note this eye-popping summation of the changes from MARC SHORT: “‘I think what we’re witnessing now is a full on frontal assault on conservatism,’ said Marc Short, who served as chief of staff to Vice President MIKE PENCE from 2019 to 2021, who is so estranged from this new version of the party that he was advised to skip the convention. ‘And you can look at the platform walking away from issues like life and traditional marriage, embracing tariffs across the board, but I feel like yesterday and last night went a step further when you have speakers that are basically saying NATO was at fault for [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN’s invasion of Ukraine, and referring to job creators as ‘corporate pigs’ and announcing national right to work.’ “He said, ‘That’s an enormous departure from where our party has been and I don’t think it’s a prescription for success.’” Related read: “‘Economic nationalism’ at the RNC clashes with Trump’s pitch to donors,” by WaPo’s Josh Dawsey, Rachel Siegel, Jeff Stein and Laura Vozzella Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: At ExxonMobil, we’ve captured more CO2 than any other company, so we have the expertise to help some of the most carbon-intensive sectors. With more than 30 years' experience, we’re a global leader in carbon capture and storage. Now, we’re advancing projects around the world, including in Louisiana and Texas, to help us and our customers reduce emissions. Let’s deliver. | | | CRUZ ON TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT — At the CNN-POLITICO Grill, the post-convention gathering spot for reporters, operatives, and elected officials, JMart and Ryan chatted with Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) for this morning’s daily podcast, and the senator said something notable about where congressional investigations of the events in Butler last Saturday are headed. “I want to get answers to — was politics involved in turning down additional resources for Trump?” the senator said. “It's been reported now that on the day of the rally, Secret Service moved some of Trump's detail to protect JILL BIDEN, who was also in Pennsylvania.” Cruz called for “emergency hearings next week” with KIMBERLY CHEATLE, the director of the Secret Service; ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, the secretary of Homeland Security; and CHRISTOPHER WRAY, the director of the FBI, “to ask ‘What the hell went wrong?’ Because it was a massive and catastrophic security failure.” Cruz also called on Cheatle and Mayorkas to resign. He added, “There have been multiple reports that there were repeated requests from the Trump campaign for additional Secret Service protection and that it was turned down. I don't know that that's a fact, but we need a hearing, and it should be next week to say how many requests were there?” ANTHONY GUGLIELMI, chief of communications for the Secret Service, has strenuously denied that resources to protect Trump were diverted to protect Jill Biden (“very wrong”) and that the Biden administration denied a request from the Trump campaign for extra protection (“absolutely false.”). GRILL MARKS — The CNN-POLITICO Grill continues to be the place to be in Milwaukee, where newsmakers are coming for the most insightful conversations ahead of the official floor action. Here’s a roundup of the most notable moments from yesterday’s action:
- House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN told Rachael that he would like to bring in the law enforcement officers who were on the scene Saturday when the assassination attempt against Trump happened for interviews with his committee. More video
- House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE called for Secret Service Director KIM CHEATLE to step down from her post in the wake of the swirling security questions after Saturday’s attempt on Trump’s life, in an interview with Rachael. More video
- Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP isn’t counting any chickens before they hatch this November. “I absolutely do not think this is a done deal,” Kemp told Eugene, though he noted he feels “good unity” in the GOP. More video
- SPOTTED at the Grill: Florida Sen. RICK SCOTT with a line of people waiting to talk to him … Ted Cruz enthusiastically sampling the Wisconsin cheese of the day … RICK SANTORUM; PAM STEVENS; MARC LOTTER seated with MIKE DUBKE, and; Rep. MIKE LAWLER (R-N.Y) chatting with ASHLEE RICH STEPHENSON.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: The world needs ways to reduce carbon emissions. At ExxonMobil, we’re working on solutions in our own operations – like carbon capture and clean energy from hydrogen – that could also help in other industries like manufacturing, commercial transportation and power generation, too. Helping deliver heavy industry with low emissions. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. At the White House Biden is in Las Vegas. In the morning, he will receive the President’s Daily Brief. Later, Biden will participate in a radio interview with Univision, deliver remarks at the UnidosUS Annual Conference and participate in a campaign community event. In the evening, Biden will travel to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Kalamazoo, Michigan, for political events before returning to D.C. in the evening. On the trail What we’re watching … Welcome to Day Three of the Republican National Convention. Tonight’s theme is ostensibly foreign policy and international security. But the main draw will be J.D. Vance, who’ll deliver by far the biggest speech of his young political career. Before the primetime pageantry, we’ll host a series of newsy interviews at the CNN-POLITICO Grill. Among them: former HUD Secretary BEN CARSON (12:25 p.m. ET), Arkansas Gov. SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS (1 p.m. ET) and NRCC Chair RICHARD HUDSON (3:30 p.m. ET). If you’re in Milwaukee and want to check out any of today’s CNN-POLITICO Grill events in person, sign up for an invite here. And be sure to follow along with the latest throughout the day at POLITICO.com/RNC
| | | | The CNN-POLITICO Grill has quickly become a key gathering place for policymakers and thought-leaders attending the RNC in Milwaukee.
On Tuesday, POLITICO and Bayer convened two conversations: a discussion with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and an executive conversation with Bayer’s Jessica Christiansen, senior vice president and head of crop science and sustainability communications.
The conversations focused on the news of the day in Milwaukee, including deeper discussion centered on the critical challenges faced by the agriculture sector.
CATCH UP HERE | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | TRUMP CARDS
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Stunning new details continue to emerge about both the lead-up to Saturday's assassination attempt and what has transpired since. | Scott Goldsmith for POLITICO | ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT — We’re three days removed from the shocking failed assassination attempt against Trump, and stunning new details continue to emerge about both the lead-up to Saturday and what has transpired since. On Saturday, some local police officers who were tasked by the Secret Service to help secure the area were inside the actual building where THOMAS MATTHEW CROOKS fired at Trump from the roof, WaPo’s Carol Leonnig, Isaac Stanley-Becker and Shawn Boburg report. However, a local law enforcement official told the Times that the officers were not in the same building that Crooks was on top of, but rather were inside an adjacent building. “That this simple matter — whether law enforcement used the same building as the gunman — is still not easily resolved three days after the shooting shows that divisions are emerging among the law enforcement agencies,” NYT’s Campbell Robertson, Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Eileen Sullivan write. Over in the secured perimeter of the rally, new videos uncovered through social media clearly show Secret Service counter-snipers “orienting themselves toward” the building where Crooks fired from “just under two minutes before shots were fired,” NYT’s Aric Toler writes. And in a truly jaw-dropping report, CNN reports that U.S. officials “obtained intelligence from a human source in recent weeks on a plot by Iran to try to assassinate Donald Trump, a development that led to the Secret Service increasing security around the former president,” Evan Perez, Zachary Cohen, Natasha Bertrand, Kylie Atwood and Kristen Holmes write. And though there is no indication Crooks was connected to the reported Iranian plot, the intel “raises new questions about the security lapses at the Saturday rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.” Not a great look: The Biden administration has “declined for almost a year to provide security” for former Trump national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN “despite behind-the-scenes pressure from lawmakers and what they describe as continuing threats against his life,” WSJ’s Lara Seligman and Warren Strobel report. More top reads:
- Trump allies are “drafting a sweeping AI executive order that would launch a series of ‘Manhattan Projects’ to develop military technology and immediately review ‘unnecessary and burdensome regulations,’” WaPo’s Cat Zakrzewski reports, “signaling how a potential second Trump administration may pursue AI policies favorable to Silicon Valley investors and companies.”
2024 WATCH
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President Joe Biden is finalizing plans to endorse major changes to the Supreme Court in the coming weeks. | Valaurian Waller for POLITICO | BIDEN ATTEMPTS TO QUELL REVOLT — In a major election year move, Biden is “finalizing plans to endorse major changes to the Supreme Court in the coming weeks, including proposals for legislation to establish term limits for the justices and an enforceable ethics code,” WaPo’s Tyler Pager and Michael Scherer report. “He is also weighing whether to call for a constitutional amendment to eliminate broad immunity for presidents and other constitutional officeholders.” As for Biden’s viability in the race, both the NYT and NBC have reports up indicating that Biden’s inner circle is shrinking. The Times writes that his close family members and a “tiny group of loyalists” are counseling the president on the path forward, while NBC News adds that “[b]y the end of last week the president and his team had settled on a strategy forward, the five people familiar with the internal discussions said. That strategy, as described by multiple Biden aides and allies, is to run out the clock.” Biden and his allies, NBC writes, are hoping that Republicans’ convention this week is a “tipping point” to shift the focus to Trump and leave Democrats in the “Dump Biden” camp with little time to push him out. As Biden returns to active campaigning after the pause in light of Saturday’s assassination attempt, Biden is still “reluctant to significantly dial back his sharpest attacks” against Trump, “continuing to assert that the Republican is a threat to American democracy,” Jonathan Lemire and Eli Stokols report. Now, Biden and his team are planning to “adjust his arguments against Trump to be more about his policies than the man himself” with some toned down rhetoric. Poll position: A new survey of 1,200 Black women conducted by The Cut, Biden finds warning signs: “When asked whom they would vote for if the election were held today, 64 percent said Biden” in a multicandidate field. More from The Cut’s Tariro Mzezewa Mood music: “Pelosi privately fields battleground Dem calls as she works to address Biden crisis,” by Sarah Ferris … “Resurgent Trump Has Democrats in Swing Districts Despondent,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman and Katie Glueck Hot on the left: “The Plot to Destroy Biden, According to His Biggest Fans,” by Calder McHugh for POLITICO Magazine: “Some of the president’s biggest supporters on the internet blame the media — and see conspiracies against him.” More top reads:
- J.D. Vance and Kamala Harris had a “brief and respectful” phone call yesterday, Fox News’ Brooke Singman reports. The two “both said they look forward to debating,” Singman writes, though no timing or date was discussed.
- Trump’s immigration stance is harsher in tone than his 2016 run, but he and other Republicans are banking that it won’t bite them at the ballot box, NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa reports. “Surveys and focus groups show that Latino voters, like other Americans, have warmed to more punitive measures on illegal immigration, and that more Latinos are saying they trust Mr. Trump and Republicans over President Biden and Democrats to better handle migration at the Southern border.”
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The calls for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) to immediately step down from his seat came quickly yesterday. | Adam Gray/Getty Images | WHAT ABOUT BOB — Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) was convicted on federal corruption charges yesterday, dousing his status as a survivor after dodging similar charges and political pitfalls over the past decade-plus, Matt Friedman writes. “Menendez’s political career has been dead and buried since his indictment in September, when his party abandoned him and Rep. ANDY KIM launched a winning primary bid to replace Menendez. In the ensuing months, New Jersey’s political system effectively collapsed, with Democrats upending the way they’ve done business in the state for decades.” Although he vowed to fight the verdict, “Menendez … is staring at the ruins of a 50-year political career and the prospect of decades in prison.” The calls for Menendez to immediately step down from his seat came quickly yesterday, with seven senators who had previously refrained from weighing in on the case urging him to resign. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER led the charge shortly after the jury’s decision came down. But Sen. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) went a step further. In reiterating her call for Menendez to resign, she said if he refuses “he should be expelled.” The road ahead: “The Menendez verdict is in, but the case isn’t over,” by Ry Rivard THE WHITE HOUSE IMMIGRATION FILES — The Biden administration’s crackdown on asylum seems to be slowing the flow of migrants into the U.S. “In June, just over 83,000 migrants crossed the border illegally, according to U.S. border officials, down from around 117,000 in May and the lowest monthly total since January 2021,” NYT’s Hamed Aleaziz reports. “The downturn in crossings has continued into July. The daily average of encounters at the border in the past week was under 1,900 as of Monday, according to a senior U.S. Customs and Border Protection official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal statistics.” JUDICIARY SQUARE WOWZA — “U.S. Accuses Former C.I.A. Analyst of Working for South Korea,” by NYT’s Claire Fahy, Jesse McKinley and Benjamin Weiser: SUE MI TERRY, “a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst and a senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, is accused in a 31-page indictment released Tuesday of a yearslong effort to assist South Korean spies. The indictment says she even introduced the spies to congressional staff members, an action that she described as ‘bringing the wolf in.’” THE REAL-WORLD IMPACT — “Conservative justices gave mayors the power to police homelessness. But how far will they go?” by Dustin Gardiner
| | | | In Milwaukee for the RNC? Join POLITICO at the CNN-POLITICO Grill for in-depth interviews with the most prominent leaders of the Republican Party as we discuss policy, politics and news of the week. RSVP HERE.
Or, follow along with every update from the Republican National Convention with POLITICO’s live blog | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Donald Trump’s ear bandage is the hot accessory on the convention floor. Matt Gaetz v. Kevin McCarthy is alive and well in Milwaukee. Mike Pence wants you to know he’s not in Milwaukee. Rudy Giuliani took a tumble at the RNC. Babydog stole the show. Boris Johnson got a word in with Trump. Jeff Flake is resigning as ambassador to Turkey in September. SPOTTED in Milwaukee: Blake Masters going into the Newsmax booth yesterday afternoon. … Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) waving to Brian Kilmeade on N. MLK Jr. Drive in yesterday afternoon. … Texas AG Ken Paxton looking at a stack of “Make America Great Again” hats last night in the merchandise store at the Fiserv Forum. … Alina Habba, Kash Patel and Alexis Wilkins, and Erica Knight and Drew Lynch, separately having dinner at the Trade Hotel. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED yesterday afternoon at a reception hosted by supporters of Winning For Women PAC with hosts Bill and Betsie Berrien at Central Standard Craft Distillery in Milwaukee: Suzanne Youngkin, Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), Reps. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), Celeste Maloy (R-Utah), Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), Alison Esposito, Mary Draves, Annie Dickerson, Danielle Barrow, Todd Ricketts and Sylvie Légère, Lisa Wagner, Parker Poling, Jonathan and Muffy Day, Brian Baker, Lauren Kirshner, Courtney Alexander, Michael Ahrens, Austin Ramirez and Scott Beightol. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Tina Stow will be EVP of public affairs at AHIP. She previously was head of comms for Optum Health at UnitedHealth Group. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) … Josh Barro … Kathy “Coach” Kemper … POLITICO’s Carolina Garcia, David Hackney, Alba Perez and Sean Connor … Reuters’ Mike Stone … Opal Vadhan … Morning Consult’s Kyle Dropp and Jessica Cuellar … Roz Leighton … Dani Simons … Kayla Tausche … Emma Loop … Ben Shannon … Katherine (Smith) Scarlett … WaPo’s Katie Zezima … Chris Buki … Chris Berardi … Curt Mills … Marnie Funk … Barbara Boland … Seth Bringman … Morgan Routman Hill of Rep. Lois Frankel’s (D-Fla.) office … Amanda Waldron … DHS’ Michael Presutti … former U.S. Treasurer Rosie Rios … Jon Monger … Matthew E. Berger … Susan Kennedy … Steve Spinner … Andrew Bowen Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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