| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Several panels during the second day of the Aspen Security Forum focused on the threats — domestic, international and in orbit — facing the United States. And the news wasn’t promising. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP | With help from Maggie Miller, Erin Banco, Miles J. Herszenhorn and Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric If we had to sum up the vibes at the Aspen Security Summit so far, we’d choose one word: grim. On the forum’s second day, many of the panels discussed growing threats from adversaries and Washington’s struggle to keep up with them, while some panelists touched on the attempted assassination of DONALD TRUMP over the weekend. You don’t have time to watch every panel, so here are the highlights — or lowlights: Trump assassination attempt fallout: The Secret Service has been “constrained” in recent years by budget limits, something that has impacted the ability to hire new officers, said MATTHEW NOYES, director of cyber policy and strategy at the Secret Service’s Office of Investigations. “Obviously we are constrained by the resources we have,” Noyes said. “We do the best we can with the resources we have, but we have been constrained for well over a decade now in terms of resourcing and hiring, and that has a long impact in terms of increasing the staffing to do both of our incredibly important tasks.” The Secret Service and other federal agencies are investigating the shooting as lawmakers blame the USSS for failing to prevent the incident, which saw a shooter come within 150 yards of Trump during a campaign rally (more on the investigations below). Noyes criticized the 2011 Budget Control Act — designed to cut spending and raise the debt ceiling — and last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act for hurting hiring efforts at the agency. “When you’re an organization like the Secret Service, just shy of 8,000 people, to not hire for several years in a row has a long tail impact across the careers of those individuals,” Noyes said. Washington isn’t ready: The threats facing the U.S. are becoming “more serious and more dangerous,” warned JACK KEANE, a member of a congressionally-appointed commission to review the U.S. national defense strategy. “And we have absolutely failed to keep up.” Russia is a persistent threat, said former Army Vice Chief of Staff Keane — who serves on the Commission on the National Defense Strategy — and China “has largely negated the United States military advantage in the western Pacific.” If a global war broke out soon, he added, Washington would struggle to deal with adversaries' capabilities. Other members of the commission also warned that U.S. institutions are woefully unprepared to address these threats: “There's a very large Pentagon bureaucracy that lacks that sense of urgency,” Former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy ERIC EDELMAN said. Former Rep. JANE HARMAN added that Congress and the Pentagon are “addicted to legacy systems” and need to change their mindsets to more closely resemble the risk-taking tech sector. Roscosmos doing the most: Because of the Russian military’s “lack of conventional superiority,” Moscow is focused on space as an “asymmetric capability,” Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. JEFF KRUSE said. Russia considers space a part of the battlefield, he said, specifically pointing to its actions during the Ukraine war. Moscow has been accused of GPS spoofing and jamming satellite signals, and the United States has to be ready to deter attacks against American assets, he added. U.S. officials also believe Moscow is developing an anti-satellite nuclear weapon in space, causing the Biden administration to brief NATO allies on the threat and reach out to countries such as China and India to persuade Russia to back down. If the nuclear weapon is launched into orbit and detonated, the explosion would affect all countries’ assets in space, the officials said, calling it a reckless project by a nation that used to lead the way in orbit: “It's really holding at risk the entire modern way of life,” said U.S. Space Command chief Gen. STEPHEN WHITING.
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | THE VIEW FROM ASPEN: While we suffer in the Washington heat and humidity, our own NAHAL TOOSI, ERIN BANCO and ALEX WARD are living it up in the Aspen mountains. Here’s the scene: The entire credit card system on the Aspen Meadows Campus shut down today, forcing attendees — mostly national security experts — to write their credit card numbers and personal information on sheets of paper if they did not have cash. Lunch was pasta, chicken and salad, and the campus has multiple coffee bars. The attendees tend to hang out in the Google tent or inside the main conference building. But the real sit-down off-the-records will likely take place on the sidelines, including tonight at several bars downtown. There's barely been any mention of Trump or President JOE BIDEN at today's briefings. People are avoiding — at least on record — any conversations having to do with politics or Biden's future. But there is a clear sense of anxiety, particularly because most of the officials who were supposed to join for panel discussions this year have dropped out. Any lingering questions attendees have about the aftermath of the Trump shooting and Biden's chances of re-election will have to be put on ice — for now. HRW CALLS WAR CRIMES: Human Rights Watch condemned war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Hamas militants in their Oct. 7 attack against Israel, accusing the group of “deliberate and indiscriminate attacks against civilians.” In a report released today, the organization also said the militants used civilians as human shields and undertook cruel and inhumane treatment of them. The killing of civilians and taking of hostages were “central aims of the planned attack, and not actions that occurred as an afterthought,” the report reads. The assessment was based on months of interviews with survivors, hostages and first responders among other witnesses, falling in line with condemnations made by Israel, the U.S. and numerous other countries. It features the organization’s most extensive allegations of war crimes committed during the attack. SECRET SERVICE SCRUTINY: The Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general’s office will investigate the Secret Service efforts to provide security for Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania, where his ear was grazed by a bullet, our own MILES J. HERSZENHORN reports. The office provided few details about the scope of the investigation beyond a brief statement posted on its website. The DHS investigation comes after Biden ordered an independent review of law enforcement’s security efforts at the Trump rally, and the FBI launched a probe into the shooting. House Oversight Committee Chair JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) issued a subpoena today for Secret Service Director KIMBERLY CHEATLE to testify before his panel next week about the matter, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports. Also, it’s worth reading this story from NewsGuard’s McKENZIE SADEGHI about how several leading AI chatbots failed to provide accurate information about the shooting 57 percent of the time, “falling far short in dealing with the wave of conspiracy theories quickly launched by critics and supporters of Trump, as well as by hostile foreign state actors.” ICYMI — U.S. officials have gathered increasing amount of intel about Iran plotting to assassinate Trump by Erin I’M A SEOUL WOMAN: Former CIA analyst and National Security Council staffer SUE MI TERRY was indicted Tuesday on charges she worked as an agent of the South Korean government without disclosing her affiliations to Seoul, our own JOSH GERSTEIN, Miles and CAITLIN OPRYSKO reported last night. DARK SIDE OF THE DNIPRO: Former Russian President DMITRY MEDVEDEV invited Pink Floyd guitarist ROGER WATERS to perform for Russian soldiers who are fighting in Ukraine, he told the Russian media outlet Argumenty i Fakty. Waters has received criticism for comments praising Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN and described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as provoked by NATO. A spokesperson for Waters did not respond to a request for comment about Medvedev’s invitation. IT’S WEDNESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | The CNN-POLITICO Grill has quickly become a key gathering place for policymakers and thought-leaders attending the RNC in Milwaukee.
On Tuesday, POLITICO and Bayer convened two conversations: a discussion with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and an executive conversation with Bayer’s Jessica Christiansen, senior vice president and head of crop science and sustainability communications.
The conversations focused on the news of the day in Milwaukee, including deeper discussion centered on the critical challenges faced by the agriculture sector.
CATCH UP HERE | | | | | | | | | REAGAN INTERNATIONALIST ELEGY: Republican foreign policy hawks are figuring out how to minimize the damage J.D. VANCE can do if he and DONALD TRUMP win in November, our own JONATHAN MARTIN reports. Some acolytes of RONALD REAGAN’s vision are worried that a fervent isolationist like the Ohio Republican could end up with Trump’s ear. Rep. KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.), who oversees military spending as the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee chair, told one associate: “The Ukrainians better hurry up and win.” Others want Trump to counter Vance’s presence in the White House by appointing hawks to key roles. “I would love to see more like-minded people in cabinet positions,” said Sen JONI ERNST (R-Iowa). Ernst and Sen. JOHN THUNE of South Dakota, the number two Senate Republican, specifically named former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO and Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), as solid potential cabinet secretaries. Former Trump national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN and Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.) also received support from the Republicans Jonathan spoke to. It’s reminiscent, Jonathan writes, of “Trump’s first term, when his more traditional cabinet and staff sought to limit his isolationist instincts.” And it indicates that “those internal battles will likely return should Trump reclaim the White House.” ICYMI — U.S. allies grapple with J.D. Vance by Eric, Matt and our own ELENA GIORDANO, Alex and JOE GOULD
| | OMINOUS OLYMPICS: The dark web is lit up with activity aimed at disrupting or causing havoc at the upcoming Summer Olympics in Paris, according to a report released today by cybersecurity group Fortinet, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. Fortinet researchers found “numerous” posts on the dark web advertising access to French-based companies’ networks, such as through Virtual Private Networks. The researchers also saw coding services and phone number spoofing efforts for sale that they assessed could also be used to take aim at the organizations involved in the Olympic Games.
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Or, follow along with every update from the Republican National Convention with POLITICO’s live blog | | | | | | | | BERLIN BACKTRACKING: Germany plans to halve the amount of military assistance it gives to Ukraine next year, according to a draft of the budget seen by our own MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG, NETTE NÖSTLINGER, JÜRGEN KLÖCKNER and JOSHUA POSANER. Assistance will drop from $8.7 billion to $4.35 billion next year, per the draft. The expected slash is particularly surprising as European leaders worry that a second Trump presidency could see Ukraine receiving less Western aid. Speaking after the cabinet approved the draft budget, Finance Minister CHRISTIAN LINDNER said Ukraine would have to rely more on funds from “European sources” as well as hoped-for income from frozen Russian assets. Reuters first reported the budget cut. Read: Mysterious drones keep watch as Ukrainians train in Germany by our own JOSHUA POSANER and CRISTINA GONZALEZ
| | GOP ENTERS CHOPPY WATERS: Top Republican lawmakers are calling on the Biden administration to outline concrete steps Washington can take to support the Philippines as it faces aggression from China in the South China Sea. Manila and Beijing have raised tensions recently over a contested shoal in the waters, where a small Philippine crew maintains a rusty warship that was intentionally grounded in 1999 to solidify its maritime claims. The Philippines still sends supply missions to forces stationed there, but violent confrontations with China in the disputed waterway have occurred over the past year. “We must respond with visible and concrete demonstrations of our support. Anything short of this risks our appearing unwilling to honor our bilateral commitments,” Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republicans on the Senate Armed Services Committee and Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wrote to Biden last week. They requested a “full list of military, diplomatic, and economic options” to support the Philippines and deter China. The U.S. is bound by a decades-old mutual defense treaty to defend Manila against attacks. There are no signs Beijing is backing down: China and Russia deployed at least three ships each over three days during live-fire naval exercises in the South China Sea this week, Reuters’ JOE CASH reports, citing Chinese and Russian media.
| | | |   | | | | | WSJ’S PINK SLIP: The Wall Street Journal fired a Hong Kong-based reporter after she was elected as chair of the Hong Kong Journalists Association, which has been accused by state-backed and state-run media of destabilizing the city, The Washington Post’s SHIBANI MAHTANI reports. “[I] was immediately told it would be incompatible with my job,” SELINA CHENG, the journalist, told reporters today. “The editor said employees of the Journal should not be seen as advocating for press freedom in a place like Hong Kong, even though they can in Western countries, where it is already established.” BEIJING SHOOTS DOWN NUKE TALKS: The Chinese government has channeled its anger over ongoing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan by slamming the door on bilateral talks on nuclear non-proliferation, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. Those weapon sales “severely undermine China’s core interests and the mutual trust between China and the U.S….consequently, the Chinese side has decided to hold off discussion with the US on a new round of consultations on arms control and non-proliferation —the responsibility fully lies with the U.S.,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN said today in Beijing. The Biden administration coaxed Beijing into semi-official nuclear arms talks in March — the first in five years — amid rising concern over China’s ongoing dramatic expansion of its nuclear weapons stockpile. The NSC and State Department did not immediately respond to NatSec Daily’s requests for comment.
| | — French President EMMANUEL MACRON accepted Prime Minister GABRIEL ATTAL’s resignation after their party lost its majority in the National Assembly during this month’s snap legislative elections. Attal will lead a caretaker government while France’s political parties broker a legislative coalition and put forth a new prime minister. — PATRICK TURNER has been tapped to be the senior representative to lead the NATO Representation in Ukraine, starting in September. He previously served as NATO assistant secretary general for operations and as assistant secretary general for defense policy and planning. — RICK DEL TORO, a DOJ prosecutor, is retiring from government, per an announcement on LinkedIn. He helped lead the National Security Division’s investigations and prosecutions of export control and sanctions violations. — Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund ANTOINETTE SAYEH will step down on Sept. 12. A Liberian economist, Sayeh led the IMF’s Africa department and joined the Fund’s senior management team in March 2020.
| | — DAVID ROSENBERG, POLITICO: Israel’s ultra-Orthodox headache — The Editors, National Review: Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle must resign — ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN and KOSTIANTYN KHUDOV, The Washington Post: As mobilization rules kick in, some Ukrainian men pay to flee, dodging draft.
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: How does the Taiwan public view the U.S. and China? — Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: Discussion about the use of open source intelligence in intelligence analysis, AI and emerging technology. — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Venezuela’s high-stakes election. — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Sudan at a crossroads: Addressing the largest internal displacement crisis in the world. — Council on Foreign Relations, 12 p.m.: The humanitarian crisis in Sudan. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 p.m.: The campus and the Israel-Hamas war. — The Wilson Center, 1 p.m.: Democracy, human rights, and governance policy. — Center for a New American Security, 2 p.m.: AI catastrophic risks and national security: Taking stock of perceptions and approaches. Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is the lowlight of our day, every day. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the reason we wake up.
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