| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Today, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (left) made a surprise visit to Ukraine, his first trip there since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. | Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP | With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn and Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Ukraine is working to make inroads with the far-right in the United States and Europe through the year’s end while simultaneously staying tight with the Biden administration. Today, Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN made a surprise visit to Ukraine, his first trip there since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. That comes a day after Hungary began its European Union presidency rotation that lasts until the end of the year — a reign characterized by his Make Europe Great Again slogan in homage to DONALD TRUMP. Orbán proposed the idea of an immediate cease-fire to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY during their talks. Afterward, Orbán said: “The rules of international diplomacy are slow and complex. I asked the president to consider whether it would be possible to reverse the order and to speed up the peace negotiations with a swift ceasefire.” Across the world, a split-screen: Top Ukrainian officials including Zelenskyy’s adviser ANDRIY YERMAK, Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV and Energy Minister GERMAN GALUSHCHENKO are in Washington to meet with senior Biden administration officials ahead of the NATO Summit next week. Ukraine knows that it needs to keep all doors open to maintain European and American military assistance going into the third year of the war, interacting often with prospective members of the Trump administration. The Hungarian leader, considered to be Moscow’s top EU ally after repeatedly obstructing efforts to support Kyiv, could play an increasingly important role in his new position among the European bloc ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. Orbán can serve as a conduit to both Moscow and Trump’s team, said VOLODYMYR DUBOVYK, who teaches international relations at Odesa Mechnikov National University in Ukraine. His talks with Zelenskyy are mutually beneficial: “Orbán looks like a statesman of global caliber, and Zelenskyy looks like someone who can have a dialogue even with often uneasy partners like Orbán,” Dubovyk told NatSec Daily. Because of Hungary’s ties to Russia, maintaining a relatively cordial relationship with Budapest is crucial for Kyiv moving forward, EUGENE FINKEL, an international studies professor at Johns Hopkins University, told NatSec Daily. Kyiv will have to work with Hungary — whether they like it or not — due to the temporary role, on matters including EU and NATO membership. “Hungary unfortunately is crucial for both,” Finkel added. The EU presidency doesn’t offer much actual power — Hungary could likely only delay Ukraine’s bid to join the bloc — but it will allow Orbán to put his country’s priorities front and center on the world stage. Kyiv joining NATO still seems far from a reality, though the U.S. says there is a “bridge” for its membership. Ukraine’s talks with the Hungarian leader, Trump’s team and Biden administration officials show that Kyiv is working hard to make sure they have few enemies, no matter who takes power in Europe and the U.S. That’s not to mention Biden’s lackluster debate performance causing officials around the world to question his capabilities, Ukrainians included. “Zelenskyy can read the room. He saw the U.S. presidential debate and the outcome of the first round of the French and EU elections — and knows that if he wants to sustain support he has to work with the full cast of characters,” ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told NatSec Daily.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | ISRAELI MILITARY WANTS A TRUCE? Israeli generals want a cease-fire in Gaza even if Hamas stays in power for now because they see it as the best chance at freeing the hostages still being held, The New York Times’ RONEN BERGMAN, PATRICK KINGSLEY and NATAN ODENHEIMER report. “Underequipped for further fighting after Israel’s longest war in decades, the generals also think their forces need time to recuperate in case a land war breaks out against Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that has been locked in a low-level fight with Israel since October,” the Times writes. The generals’ views widen a rift between the military and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, who doesn’t want a truce that would let Hamas survive. But a truce would also make it easier to secure a peace deal with Hezbollah militants, Israeli officials told NYT, as a wider conflict between Israel and the militant group bubbles. Hezbollah has said that it won’t stop attacking Israel until Israel stops attacking Hamas. Netanyahu pushed back on the Times report in a video today: “Anonymous sources briefed The New York Times that Israel will be prepared to end the war before all of its objectives are achieved,” he said. “I do not know who these anonymous sources are, but I am here to make it unequivocally clear: This will not happen.” There are no signs that the fighting is stopping. Today, the United Nations said that up to a quarter million could flee their temporary shelters in the city of Khan Younis after Israel ordered new evacuations from the area, The Washington Post reports. Israeli forces struck the city overnight in areas where rockets had been launched, the Israeli military said. NEW UKRAINE AID PACKAGE: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN announced a new $2.3 billion security package for Kyiv as Ukrainian Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV visited Washington ahead of next week’s NATO summit, our own LARA SELIGMAN writes in. “This package under presidential drawdown authority will provide more air defense interceptors, anti-tank weapons, and other critical weapons from U.S. inventories,” Austin said. “It will also enable the United States to procure more Patriot and NASAMs air defense interceptors, which will be provided on an accelerated timeline.” CHINA’S CUBAN OUTPOSTS: Suspected Chinese spy stations in Cuba are expanding near the U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay, according to The Wall Street Journal’s WARREN STROBEL. Satellite imagery from the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows new construction at suspected Chinese eavesdropping stations on the Communist island. U.S. officials believe that China wants to use four sites jointly operated with the Cuban military to gather sensitive information from military and commercial operations and space-launch facilities. The site at El Salao, just 70 miles from Guantanamo Bay, is expected to hold a large array of antennas and monitor operations at the U.S. installation, which has been a sore point between Washington and Havana since 1959. The images come as China has increased its footprint in Latin America, expanding investment and ties with countries in the region. Cuba’s prowess in the world of espionage has also come back into focus in light of federal charges against U.S. diplomat VICTOR MANUEL ROCHA. A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington told the Journal that the United States “has repeatedly hyped up China’s establishment of spy bases or conducting surveillance activities in Cuba.” JOHANA TABLADA, the Cuban foreign ministry’s U.S. policy chief, posted on X, that “The @WSJ newspaper lies, favoring special interests to portray #Cuba as the threat it is not, recycling, without evidence, lies from non-existent #China bases in #Cuba.” UN CONDEMNS GERSHKOVICH ARREST: A United Nations panel concluded today that Russia has arbitrarily detained Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, WSJ’s DUSTIN VOLZ reports. ANOTHER RESIGNATION: MARYAM HASSANEIN resigned today from her position as a Biden administration appointee in the Department of the Interior, joining several others in the administration who have quit over Biden’s policy toward Israel. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is Leading in Next-Gen Radar Technology
The U.S. Army’s new Sentinel A4 radar—a revolutionary leap from the legacy Sentinel A3—will counter cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing and fixed wing threats, offering flexible mission performance and growth potential. Learn more. | | | | | MANILA MOVES: Former Trump deputy national security adviser MATT POTTINGER urged the Biden administration to invoke a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines and impose “military costs” on Beijing in response to its incursions on Manila’s claims to the South China Sea, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. “Beijing has already attacked to such a degree that it should trigger our mutual defense treaty response,” Pottinger said in a speech at the Heritage Foundation today. He added that the Biden administration’s reticence to invoke the treaty in response to increasingly aggressive Chinese activities in waters claimed by the Philippines has signaled to Beijing that it “can do this with impunity.” Beijing’s incursions are “mainly about trying to discredit the United States — it's a dress rehearsal for Taiwan [and] they're doing it on a little tiny model of Taiwan which is this little island called Second Thomas Shoal,” Pottinger said. RUSSIAN REALITY CHECK: Moscow’s envoy to the United Nations is throwing cold water on former President DONALD TRUMP’s claims that he can immediately end the war between Ukraine and Russia upon taking office, according to the Associated Press’ EDITH LEDERER. Speaking in New York Monday night, Russian Ambassador VASSILY NEBENZIA said, “The Ukrainian crisis cannot be solved in one day.” Nebenzia added that Zelenskyy “is running around with his so-called peace plan which, of course, is not a peace plan but a joke” and pointed to Putin’s earlier peace proposals. Kyiv has rejected Putin’s offers for peace, which hinge on Ukraine relinquishing its claims to four border regions. Trump has repeatedly stated on the campaign trail that he’ll have a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine “done in 24 hours” and that he will leverage his relationships with Russian leaders to end the two-year-long conflict.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | THEY ‘WILL NOT OUTTHINK US’: The State Department's disinformation chief warned about the nexus between cyber operations and foreign propaganda campaigns in a speech to industry and government officials today. Global Engagement Center special envoy JAMES RUBIN called for closer coordination with the Pentagon on building relationships with allies and boosting partner countries' resilience. The remarks, which our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) scooped, were made at an Association of the United States Army forum today. China, Iran and state-backed proxy groups are working daily to create a global information landscape hostile to U.S. interests, Rubin said. He called for adversaries in these cases to be stripped of their online anonymity. "Our adversaries have been doing this for a long time, and they fund their information operations well. Despite these advantages, I know they cannot and will not outthink us," Rubin is expected to say.
| | KIM’S BIG PROMISES: North Korea is bragging that it successfully launched a new missile that can carry a “super-large warhead” but South Korea isn’t impressed, The AP’s’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reports. North Korean state media said that its two recent launches saw the country’s military test a missile capable of carrying a 4.5-ton class warhead. The missile has a purported range of 310 miles. But South Korean officials have pushed back on the Hermit Kingdom’s claims, arguing that Pyongyang is trying to hide evidence of failed launches. Unlike with other tests, North Korea did not release images of the missiles. Pyongyang says it will relaunch the missile again in July to verify it can be launched within medium range. F-16S COMING SOON: Dutch Defense Minister KAJSA OLLONGREN told parliament that Netherlands will begin supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets soon after the required permits were granted, according to Reuters. Ollongren declined to specify how many planes will be included in the delivery and precisely when they will arrive in Ukraine due to security reasons. The Netherlands had previously supplied F-16s for Ukrainian pilots to use for training purposes in Romania.
| | | |   | | | | | CONGRESS’ ‘BUY AMERICA’ BOOSTER: Rep. JOHN GARAMENDI (D-Calif.) is embracing his role in slow-walking negotiations with South Korea for a new defense trade agreement, our colleagues at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. Garamendi, a long-time supporter of the “Buy American” policy requiring that taxpayers dollars be used to purchase equipment mostly made domestically, says he wants to be sure that American manufacturers aren’t harmed by special Pentagon trade pacts, called reciprocal defense procurement agreements, that exempt allies from those domestic manufacturing requirements. He joined forces with Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.) to probe these agreements. Those agreements “came to our attention as a possible way in which the resurgence of American manufacturing might be harmed,” Garamendi told our own JOE GOULD. The California Democrat maintains that he’s not opposed to the agreements per se, but he wants to know whether they align with President Joe Biden’s “Buy American” policies and wants greater transparency from the Pentagon. He also doesn’t want to see shipbuilding outsourced to South Korea as the U.S. seeks to rebuild its own domestic industry. PSAKI IN THE HOT SEAT: The House Foreign Affairs Committee will interview former White House Press Secretary JEN PSAKI on July 26 as part of its probe into the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, a committee spokesperson confirmed to NatSec Daily.
| | HOSTAGE FAM BASHES BIBI: Netanyahu’s approach to the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip is alienating the families of hostages still in the militant group’s custody, even those who once supported him. As The Washington Post’s SHIRA RUBIN reports, EINAV ZANGAUKER previously believed that Netanyahu, who she saw as “Mr. Security,” would rescue her son, MATAN, and avoided the spotlight to not endanger his release. But as days have turned into months, Zangauker has emerged as a vocal critic of the Israeli government and Netayahu’s posture during cease-fire negotiations. “I will do everything possible to take back the mandate that I gave Netanyahu,” she said. “I have nothing to lose.” Zangauker’s transformation comes as Netanyahu faces relentless domestic criticism from hostages’ families over the continued deadlock in ceasefire negotiations. Those families have been at the forefront of persistent public demonstrations against Netanyahu and his government.
| | | | — HALIMAH NAJIEB-LOCKE, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for industrial base resilience, has joined Pallas Advisors as a principal.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is delivering advanced radar capabilities primed for the future
We've established a legacy of producing high-performing solid-state radars, giving forces the range and precision they need to defend against advanced threats. Learn more. | | | | | — MICHAEL HIRSH, POLITICO: Trump’s plan for NATO is emerging. The allies may not like it. — STEVEN WILLS, National Review: It turns out we actually need a Navy — PAUL MOZUR and ADAM SATARIANO, The New York Times: A.I. begins ushering in an age of killer robots
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