Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Chipotle's Dip: A Tasty Opportunity in a Turbulent Market

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"CMG Is A Contrarian Play Amidst Market Volatility."

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Nate Bear

Stock futures are soaring this morning ahead of the FOMC announcement.

But with so much volatility and uncertainty in the market lately, today's watchlist pick from my Daily Profits Live Portfolio is a change of pace from my usual selections.

Instead of looking for strong trend stocks in a consolidation phase, I'm turning my attention to Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Here's why:

CMG has been in a downward spiral lately, down about 25% from its yearly highs. This decline comes despite solid Q2 2024 earnings reported last week:

 

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  • Revenue grew 18.2% year-over-year
  • Earnings per share increased 32% to $0.33
  • Comparable store sales up 11.1% (8.7% traffic growth, 2.4% average check growth)
  • 52 new company-operated stores opened

As of December 31, 2023, Chipotle had 3,437 restaurants and plans to add 285-315 new locations in 2024. However, they did observe a slowdown in comparable store sales growth to 6% year-over-year in June 2024.

So why do I like CMG now? A couple of reasons:

First, it's not in the volatile tech sector.

It's not in the volatile tech sector. With tech earnings and the FOMC announcement looming, it's challenging to put on an options swing trade in tech right now.

Second, Chipotle seems to be dislocating from the rest of the market, potentially less dependent on FOMC decisions or tech earnings than other stocks.

Not only that, but it has already had a massive pullback.

And based on yesterday's trading action, the RSI seems to be turning upwards.

An upward turn in the RSI is often interpreted as a bullish signal, suggesting that the stock's price may be gaining upward momentum.

If the RSI has been in oversold territory (typically below 30) and starts turning upward, it could signal a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.

Despite that, picking bottoms is not a game I like to play.

It's either going to work or it's not. If it doesn't, this isn't the type of play you want to fight.

Action Plan: I got long via call options in CMG in my Daily Profits Live Portfolio. Since the stock has already had earnings and not much is expected out of it, the options are dirt cheap. I'm setting my stop right below $50 and am playing for a bounce back to $60.

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