Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Gruenberg says he'll leave. But will he really?

Presented by the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
May 21, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Zachary Warmbrodt

Presented by 

the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks

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QUICK FIX

The FDIC's Martin Gruenberg era — a nearly two-decade tenure — appears to be coming to an end at the climax of a sweeping agency misconduct scandal. But don't count him out just yet, and brace for a fierce bank lobbying barrage before the whole thing's over.

The FDIC chair says he's prepared to step down once a replacement is nominated by President Joe Biden and confirmed by the Senate. The White House says to expect a nominee soon.

Biden and the Senate — with Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown being a key figure — can act as quickly as they want. Brown said Monday evening that he’s offered names of potential replacements to the White House, though he wouldn't say who.

"I've asked the White House to move as close to immediately as the White House can move," Brown said. "As soon as they nominate somebody and we're convinced they're qualified and ready for the job, we'll move."

Potential candidates who’ve already been through the confirmation process, and who could possibly move more easily, are already in the conversation. They include Treasury Under Secretary Nellie Liang, a former Fed financial stability official who was once nominated to join the Fed board, and Graham Steele, a recently former Treasury official who was once an aide to Brown. Another name being floated is New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Adrienne Harris, who has not gone through the Senate.

But there's plenty of reason to think it could be a grinding confirmation process not just because we're nearly five months out from an election. It's because the pick will become the focus of a titanic tug-of-war between the banking lobby and financial reformers over whether Washington will subject the industry to much higher capital requirements. Regulators are indicating that they might back off, but the stakes are too high for either side to take a chance.

The bank capital fight is why there will be incentives for some Democrats to maintain the status quo and keep Gruenberg in place, just as there were last week.

On Thursday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren told Gruenberg his resignation "would do nothing to improve the toxic culture at the FDIC, but it would give Republicans a veto over bank policy.” Following news of his tentative resignation, Warren reiterated her priorities.

“I respect FDIC Chair Gruenberg’s decision to step down upon confirmation of a successor,” she said. “The FDIC must work with urgency to improve the agency’s workplace culture and implement the action plan’s recommendations. I support the White House nominating a new leader for the FDIC who has a strong track record of standing up to Wall Street and a demonstrated commitment to supporting President Biden's banking policy priorities.”

Given the bank lobby's sway, it's unlikely a "strong track record of standing up to Wall Street" would help with Senate confirmation.

Another big question: Who would want the job given the task at hand? It entails taking ownership of an agency with a mandate to improve its deeply dysfunctional culture, while also facing the prospect of being all but powerless if there's a second Trump term.

The agency's regular daily work has already been affected. According to a person familiar with the matter, Gruenberg decided to step down after it became clear he would face significant backlash internally. An annual survey of employee happiness released Monday showed that the FDIC ranked second to last among midsize agencies.

It's unclear if the dire need to improve the internal dynamics at the agency may spur lawmakers to act more quickly, but they're of aware of the need.

"We'll begin to rebuild trust among the 5,000 employees," Brown said.

It’s Tuesday — Send tips to zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

 

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Driving the day

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will give a speech on the importance of the trans-Atlantic alliance at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management … Fed Governor Christopher Waller discusses the economic outlook at the Peterson Institute at 9 a.m. … Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks on bank regulation and supervision to the Director and Executive Regional State Member Bank Conference at 11:45 a.m. … The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations holds a hearing on Zelle fraud at 2:30 p.m. … House Rules considers crypto and CBDC bills at 4 p.m.

Life after Jamie — JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is signaling to shareholders that he may retire from the largest U.S. bank in fewer than five years. In addition to dropping a hint on timing, he says JPMorgan is “well on the way” with its succession plans.

Yellen’s EuroTrip — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen today will use a speech in Germany to prod U.S. allies on using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine, Michael Stratford reports.

“It’s vital and urgent that we collectively find a way forward to unlock the value of Russian sovereign assets immobilized in our jurisdictions for the benefit of Ukraine,” Yellen plans to say, according to prepared remarks.

Yellen will be addressing the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, where she’s receiving an honorary doctoral degree in economics. She’ll tout the economic and security benefits of a strong relationship between the U.S. and Europe. And she’ll make the case for continued coordination on sanctions targeting Russia as longer-term efforts to counter China’s industrial policy.

 

A message from the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks:

Our nation’s economic health depends on a safe and secure financial system comprised of thousands of local lenders able to serve their customers successfully through all market conditions. Our nation needs the Federal Home Loan Banks. Day in and day out, for more than 90 years, we have been a dependable and crucial funding partner for financial institutions large and small, supporting community lenders who in turn support local businesses, households, and families.

 

She’ll take a veiled swipe at former President Donald Trump. “President Biden inherited a transatlantic alliance that had been threatened and weakened, by attacks on the value of NATO and a rejection of multilateralism,” Yellen plans to say. “This turn inward undermined a foundation of stability and security. It meant missed economic opportunities for American firms and workers.”

Yellen will also declare a “new era” in responding to climate change in which countries have economic incentives to harness the transition to green energy. She’ll seek to mollify concerns about the Biden administration’s massive subsidies for clean energy that have worried EU leaders.

“The IRA is not a turn toward American protectionism,” she will say, calling for more “joint and complementary action” on climate between the U.S. and E.U.

Trump’s losses — Trump’s social media venture has had a rocky start to the year, Declan Harty reports. In the first quarter, Trump Media & Technology Group — the company behind Truth Social — recorded $770,500 in revenue and a net loss of $327.6 million, according to a regulatory filing. By comparison, the company brought in $1.1 million of revenue and reported a net loss of $210.3 million in the prior-year period.

Don’t expect TMTG to go anywhere, though. In the company’s filing, Trump Media said it believes “it has sufficient working capital to fund operations for the foreseeable future.”

Stay tuned on Zelle — The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations holds a hearing this afternoon on Zelle fraud. Chair Richard Blumenthal will acknowledge that “all peer-to-peer payment apps are susceptible to fraud” but say that “Zelle deserves particular attention because of its direct connection to trusted financial institutions.”

 

A message from the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks:

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Crypto

First in MM: Heritage backs crypto bill — The Heritage Foundation’s political arm is putting its weight behind House Republicans’ bill to overhaul how the U.S. regulates crypto ahead of a Wednesday vote, Eleanor reports.

The SEC and CFTC “have had more than a decade to promulgate rules governing digital assets, yet the SEC has utterly failed to do so and the CFTC has provided only minimal guidance,” Heritage Action wrote in an email to Hill staff. “Instead, both agencies have chosen regulation by enforcement — and have done it poorly.” (CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam has said Congress needs to give his agency greater authority.)

The email reminded staff that Heritage Action will grade members on their support for separate legislation on the floor this week that would block the Fed from issuing a central bank digital currency.

In related news, House Democratic leadership revealed Monday that it will not whip against the crypto regulation and CBDC bills ahead of the Wednesday vote.

The announcement leaves House Financial Services ranking member Maxine Waters and House Agriculture ranking member David Scott to rally opposition themselves. A Monday email from leadership to members said only that Waters and Scott “strongly oppose” the measure.

Waters will host a virtual briefing for House Democrats today with SEC officials Amy Starr and Corey Frayer. Waters on Monday held a separate briefing, with Democrats including Rep. Nancy Pelosi calling in. Waters and Scott sent a letter this week urging lawmakers not to back the legislation.

The crypto industry continues to ramp up support for the bill, Jasper Goodman reports. A group of Black crypto founders is urging the Congressional Black Caucus to back the legislation, writing in a letter to the group that crypto offers “a significant opportunity to enhance economic access and reduce inequalities.”

 

A message from the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks:

Our nation’s economic health depends on a safe and secure financial system comprised of thousands of local lenders able to serve their customers successfully through all market conditions. Our nation needs the Federal Home Loan Banks. For more than 90 years, we have been a dependable and critical funding partner for financial institutions large and small, supporting community lenders who in turn support local businesses, households, and families.

The FHLBanks are also key supporters of affordable housing and community development initiatives. Since 1990, we have contributed more than $8 billion in affordable housing grants, and in 2024 alone, we expect to provide approximately $1 billion in support. We are one of the largest sources of private funding for affordable housing in the country. Working with thousands of members and housing partners, the FHLBanks play a crucial role in the economic health of our communities, delivering measurable impact and, most importantly, hope.

 
Regulatory Corner

Liquidity rules come into focus — Michael reports that Fed regulatory chief Michael Barr said Monday that the central bank is exploring “targeted adjustments” to bank liquidity rules as part of its response to the slew of bank failures last year.

He said banks need to be better prepared to access the Fed’s discount window when they’re experiencing stress. The changes, he said in a speech, are aimed at making sure large banks can weather sudden deposit flights or unanticipated funding shocks.

Treasury’s attack on fentanyl — Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and the IRS are launching a series of sessions across the country to raise awareness about how to curb fentanyl tracking. The series, which is kicked off in Boston this week, is an effort to bolster work done by regional and local banks in flagging suspicious activity.

 

JOIN 5/22 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF TAXATION: With Trump-era tax breaks set to expire in 2025, whoever wins control of Congress, and the White House will have the ability to revamp the tax code and with it reshape the landscape for business and social policy. Join POLITICO on May 22 for an exploration of what is at stake in the November elections with our panel dissecting the ways presidential candidates and congressional leaders are proposing to reshape our tax rates and incentives. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Housing

The mortgage landscape The Washington Post has a helpful breakdown of how mortgage rates shake out regionally, demographically and across economic situations.

California and Utah borrowers are paying 3.7 percent on average while West Virginia and Mississippi homeowners are paying 4.4 percent. When it comes to race, Asian Americans are experiencing the lowest rates while Black homeowners see the highest.

 

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