My wife and I got together with friends two weekends ago. The husband works for a startup but has been looking for a new job at a more stable and mature business. His wife said, "In this economy, we need something stable." I certainly understand the need for stable income. But I was a little confused about what she meant when she said "in this economy." I can't remember the last time I had an open seat next to me on a flight - and it's not like flights are cheap. There are no discounts to be found at hotels either, but they're crowded too. And popular restaurants in most cities are booming despite high prices. February restaurant sales were up 6.3% year over year. That same weekend, I was at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida, for an event. I'd been there many times before, and it's usually busy. But this time, it was more packed than I'd ever seen it. Every bar, restaurant, club and store (most of them very high-end) was mobbed. Many places had lines to get in. You could hardly find an open slot machine or a seat at a blackjack table anywhere in the casino. Jobs are plentiful right now, with unemployment hovering near all-time lows. And corporate profits are up - S&P 500 earnings grew 2% in 2023 but are forecast to soar 10% this year and 13% in 2025. For many people, the higher costs of food, energy and especially housing are a real hardship. But many others are continuing to spend despite higher prices, and that's what's helping businesses grow and keeping the jobs picture so robust. So if the economy is thriving... why doesn't it feel like it? I believe it has something to do with a little-known phenomenon that every investor needs to be aware of... |
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