HIGH ALERT: Pressure is mounting around the House’s long-delayed farm bill as Ag Chair Thompson moves ahead with his plans to unveil a draft of the legislation and hold a committee markup by Memorial Day. Democrats and Republicans have been locked in a deep impasse over key nutrition, climate and farm safety net funding in the bill for more than a year. Vulnerable House Ag Democrats — including some of the most at-risk Democrats this fall — are now caught between their interest in voting for a farm bill and senior Democrats saying for months that touching any nutrition and climate funds are redlines in the talks. To be clear, unless Republicans can secure significant Democratic support, a farm bill isn’t going to pass on the House floor this year. The outlook for Congress approving a new reauthorization is still bleak and the lame duck session may be the only remaining chance. Keep in mind: A fair number of House Democrats would rather punt the farm bill to next year, with the hope that they’ll win control of the lower chamber this fall. They’re also extremely wary of a farm bill getting to the floor under regular order, for fear that hardline Republicans will take over the legislation like what happened with the annual defense bill. But the planned Ag Committee markup is very likely the only vote about a dozen vulnerable House Democrats and several others in key rural districts will take on the farm bill before their tough races this November. WHO TO WATCH: Reps. Don Davis (D-N.C.), Gabe Vasquez(D-N.M.), Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), Sharice Davids (D-Kan.), Angie Craig (D-Minn.), Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.), Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.), Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.) and Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.). Also keep an eye on: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who is leaving the House to run for governor of Virginia, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who is running to succeed Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow in Michigan’s Senate race. Tensions flare: House Ag Democrats are still trying to find their way forward in the farm bill talks. They held a heated closed-door meeting last Thursday and are “floundering” over a possible counteroffer to the GOP’s latest proposal, according to a Democrat who participated in the meeting, as your host and Garrett reported. House Ag Republicans have put forward a list of spending offsets to pay for the $1.5 trillion bill — many of which Democrats have railed against. In their meeting, panel Democrats discussed this one-pager on the farm bill that ranking member David Scott (D-Ga.) asked House Ag Republicans to compile. The latest GOP proposal includes making future Thrifty Food Plan updates that serve as the basis of SNAP food benefits budget-neutral, while rolling roughly $13 billion in Inflation Reduction Act climate-agriculture dollars into current farm bill conservation programs. The climate parameters around the IRA funding would still need to be negotiated. Also notably, billions in current funding from the USDA’s internal CCC fund would go to a boost for crop reference prices, crop insurance and other programs. Something else to watch: The left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is strongly pushing back on the House GOP plans for the Thrifty Food Plan. CBPP has enormous influence with many Democrats on Capitol Hill, who generally view TFP as the main vehicle for increasing federal food benefits for years to come. Stacy Dean, one of the top USDA officials currently overseeing SNAP, was a senior official at the organization before she joined the Biden administration.
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