| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | Presented by LG Ad Solutions | | | | | Which is more powerful: Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, or a multimillion-dollar campaign? The May 14 GOP primary runoff election for North Carolina’s 13th District will test that. The victor will almost certainly become one of the newest members of the congressional delegation, since the seat favors Republicans after the latest GOP gerrymander. Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel chose not to run for reelection given the new Republican lean.
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Kelly Daughtry speaks at a rally on Jan. 26, 2024, in Roxboro, N.C. | Chris Seward/AP | Attorney Kelly Daughtry and former federal prosecutor Brad Knott emerged as the top two vote-getters in the crowded Super Tuesday primary, with Daughtry finishing almost 10 points ahead of Knott. Like most safe-seat Republican primaries, the contest has become a pageant of loyalty to Trump. Daughtry has accused Knott of being President Joe Biden’s “liberal lawyer” for being an assistant U.S. attorney during the Biden administration. Knott has leaned into working “with President Trump” in that role to prosecute undocumented immigrants, while calling Daughtry a fake conservative for previously donating to Democrats. And Knott has one big advantage: The Trump endorsement. Trump’s backing, which came earlier this month, could offset some of Daughtry’s high-dollar attacks — and it’s an asset that his campaign and allies are leaning into in the final stretch of the race, with early voting underway. But the Trump endorsement may not necessarily seal the deal. Knott faces a barrage of spending from Daughtry, who comes from a well-known political family in North Carolina and unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 2022. She has overwhelmed the airwaves, thanks in part to the $4.3 million she has loaned her campaign. Ahead of the March primary, Daughtry spent $1.6 million, according to ad tracker AdImpact, with an additional $1 million placed through the runoff. She’s also getting a boost from a super PAC backed by her father that put in around $500,000 on ads in both the primary and runoff. Knott, meanwhile, has around a $1 million deficit in his cash on hand compared to Daughtry. He’s spent around $500,000 on ads since the primary. And a super PAC heavily funded by his family that dropped more than $1 million on ads prior to the primary has put in only around $300,000 for the runoff. “It’s been a little bit difficult at times, because she spent a ton of money,” Knott said in an interview with Score. “But as light has crept in, and voters see it clearer, we're able to get back to the issues that they really care about.” Daughtry did not respond to an interview request. Knott does have some other notable endorsers in the race. He consolidated some of the support from the candidates who didn’t make it to the runoff, including Fred Von Canon — who put millions of dollars into his own bid to finish third — and Josh McConkey and Kenny Xu, who finished fifth and sixth, respectively. Sen. Ted Budd is also backing him. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Indiana primaries: 8 Days until the North Carolina runoffs and Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 15 Days until the Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon primaries: 22 Days until the Texas runoffs: 29 Days until the Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 36 Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 43 Days until the Oklahoma and Virginia primaries: 50 Days until the Colorado, New York and Utah primaries: 57 Days until the Republican National Convention: 77 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 112 Days until the 2024 election: 190 | | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions: Discover why you may risk missing 65% of Likely Voters without a direct-to-glass CTV political advertising strategy. Our 'Direct-to-Glass Playbook For Political Marketers' breaks down the essentials of the big shift from tradition linear TV to streaming, showing how reach and frequency optimization, precision targeting at the zip code level and enhanced ad formats like QR codes can change minds and mobilize political action. Download the full report for actionable strategies and tactics here. | | | | | 2024 WATCH — Utah Republicans held their nominating convention this weekend to determine which candidates will make the June primary ballot. In the race for Senate to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, Trent Staggs, a local mayor, secured the party nod (along with a Trump endorsement). Rep. John Curtis, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson and businessperson Jason Walton will also appear on the ballot. Brent Hatch, the son of late Sen. Orrin Hatch, did not qualify because he did not submit enough signatures. (Candidates can qualify for the ballot either through the convention or by gathering signatures.) Challengers also received the party nomination over incumbents. In UT-02, veteran Colby Jenkins defeated Rep. Celeste Maloy, who won a special election for the seat last year. Prior to the convention, he also earned the endorsement of Sen. Mike Lee. Maloy still earned enough support at the convention to make the primary ballot. State Rep. Phil Lyman also prevailed over Gov. Spencer Cox, although the incumbent submitted enough signatures to appear on the ballot anyway. Paul Miller, an electrician, also finished ahead of Rep. Blake Moore. Both will be on the primary ballot. The race for UT-03 to succeed Curtis will include state Sen. Mike Kennedy, who won the party nod, along with four other candidates. … Minnesota Republicans backed attorney Tayler Rahm to take on Rep. Angie Craig in MN-02 this fall. Joe Teirab, a former federal prosecutor, previously said he would drop out if he didn’t receive the party nomination, but he backtracked on that and will stay in the race for the August primary. Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach in MN-07 failed to secure the party’s nomination. Neither she nor her challenger, Steve Boyd, received the endorsement, which Boyd touted as a “victory.” … Former Republican Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt is running for KS-02, a safe GOP district that Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner is vacating. Schmidt unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022, losing to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly by around two points. Jeff Kahrs, a former LaTurner staffer, is also running for the seat. RETIREMENT RADAR — Rep. Bill Posey (R-Fla.) is retiring. “The 76-year-old incumbent’s announcement came shortly after qualifying officially ended and after his hand-picked replacement — former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos — had already quietly jumped into the race,” our Gary Fineout writes. FL-08 is a deep red seat. HONESTLY, NEVERMIND — Former Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) dropped his bid for Senate, saying that he did not want to create a “divisive primary that would distract from … conservative victories in November.” Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has the backing of Trump and the NRSC, is seen as the frontrunner in the race. … Democratic Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley ended his campaign for MI-08, a swing district that Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring from. Neeley in a statement accused party leaders of boosting “their preferred candidate” and ignoring the “strong list of minority candidates in the race.” Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet is seen as one of the frontrunners in the race. IN THE STATES — Former Democratic Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is considering a gubernatorial bid this year, WCAX’s Calvin Cutler reports. Dean, a former presidential candidate, said he doesn’t have a timeline for his decision. Republican Gov. Phil Scott has not said if he’s running for reelection. … Delaware Republican Party Chair Julianne Murray is planning to run for governor, per the Delaware News Journal’s Amanda Fries. Republicans face an uphill climb in the state. FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Tomorrow's Jobs, a PAC supporting Democrats with small business backgrounds, is wading into a handful of competitive primaries. The group is endorsing Mike Davey in FL-27, who is looking to take on Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar; Eddy Morales, a city councilor running to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer in OR-03; former New Hampshire Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, who is looking to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster in NH-02; and former state legislator Raquel Terán, who’s running in AZ-03 to replace Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.
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| | MAKING AMENDS — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Trump met in Miami to talk about how they can work together in the general election, seeming “ready to put their feud from the Republican presidential primary aside,” our Kimberly Leonard writes. DELEGATE DASH — “Democratic National Committee officials are expected to vote this week to restore New Hampshire’s delegates to the party’s national convention, after state Democrats over the weekend held a small, party-run primary to comply with national Democrats’ rules,” our Elena Schneider writes. NO DEBATE DODGING — Biden said he’s “happy to” debate Trump, who has been bullish on debating Biden. Still, it's unclear what the specifics of that would look like. While dates and locations are scheduled for the Commission on Presidential Debates’ general election events, neither campaign has explicitly agreed to those. The RNC in 2022 voted to boycott debates hosted by the nonprofit and nonpartisan commission — which repeatedly clashed with Trump — calling the group “biased.” THE WINNER TAKES IT ALL — Democratic Maine state House Majority Leader Maureen Terry floated that the party would consider changing how its Electoral College votes are allocated if Nebraska Republicans do the same. Electoral votes are winner-takes-all in most states. But Nebraska and Maine split them: In addition to the statewide popular vote winner getting two electoral votes, the popular vote winner in each congressional district also gets an electoral vote. Nebraska Republicans unsuccessfully pushed to change its system to a winner-takes-all method earlier this year, although they could hold a special session on the issue. Such a change would boost Trump, because currently, Biden could claim an electoral vote from NE-02, the only swing district (thanks to Omaha) in an otherwise red state. Such a change in Maine would likely hurt Trump. But Maine’s legislature has already adjourned, and Democratic Gov. Janet Mills has not signaled if she would call a special session to consider the change.
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions:   | | | | | FIRST IN SCORE — MI-08 — Republican Paul Junge has a significant lead over his primary opponents, according to an internal poll UpONE Insights conducted for Junge’s campaign. Many voters are still undecided ahead of the August primary, but Junge has 42 percent of support. His opponents are polling in the single-digits, with State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder the closest at 8 percent (300 likely GOP primary voters, April 20-22, MoE +/- 5.66 percentage points). PRESIDENTIAL — NATIONAL — Trump has a slight lead over Biden, according to a SSRS poll conducted for CNN. The former president has 49 percent of registered voters’ support, and Biden has 43 percent (967 registered voters, April 18-23, MoE +/- 3.8 percentage points). MO-Gov — Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has a double-digit lead over his closest competitor in the GOP primary, per a Tyson Group poll conducted for the conservative nonprofit Building America’s Future. Ashcroft has 36 percent of support, followed by Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe with 11 percent. The other candidates are in the single-digits, and 40 percent are undecided (504 likely Republican primary voters, April 23-26, MoE +/- 4.3 percentage points). WV-Gov — Former Republican state Del. Moore Capito has 31 percent of support in a poll conducted by NMB Research for the Coalition for West Virginia’s Future, a pro-Capito group. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has 23 percent of support; businessperson Chris Miller has 14 percent and Secretary of State Mac Warner has 13 percent (500 likely Republican primary voters, April 20-22, MoE +/- 4.38 percentage points).
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S ENERGY SUMMIT: The future of energy faces a crossroads in 2024 as policymakers and industry leaders shape new rules, investments and technologies. Join POLITICO’s Energy Summit on June 5 as we convene top voices to examine the shifting global policy environment in a year of major elections in the U.S. and around the world. POLITICO will examine how governments are writing and rewriting new rules for the energy future and America’s own role as a major exporter. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | AZ-Sen — Gallego speaks about his time in the military and supporting veterans. FL-Sen — Republican Sen. Rick Scott is railing against socialism. MD-Sen — Democratic Rep. David Trone says he intends “to use every ounce of my energy and every resource” to win the Senate seat, warning that if former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan wins, the Senate will flip. Trone is also running an ad against primary opponent Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, featuring his endorsers critiquing her. WV-Sen — Don Blankenship is running his first ads of the race. Blankenship, a former coal executive who was imprisoned for conspiring to violate safety standards, unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 2018 as a Republican and is now running as a Democrat. IN-Gov — American Advancement Inc., an outside group playing in the GOP primary, is continuing to go after Sen. Mike Braun, accusing him of being a “RINO squish” for not supporting a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border. WA-Gov — Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet is running his first ad, saying he’s the “kind of Democrat who isn't afraid to say to [Gov.] Jay Inslee and [Attorney General] Bob Ferguson, ‘It's time for a change.’” Inslee is not running for reelection, and endorsed Ferguson as his successor. WV-Gov — Moore Capito has a spot that features his mother Sen. Shelley Moore Capito calling her son “the new generation of leadership.” … Morrisey says that the “swamp is spending millions lying about” him, while showing images of primary opponents Capito and Chris Miller along with Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. MD-06 — Democrat April McClain-Delaney is touting her endorsements from Maryland Reps. Jamie Raskin and Steny Hoyer, along with Rep. Nancy Pelosi. OR-03 — Democratic state Rep. Maxine Dexter is up with her first spot, emphasizing her experience in the state legislature and as a doctor. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — "The fact is, South Dakota law states that dogs who attack and kill livestock can be put down." — Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem defending killing her puppy.
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions: The shift from linear TV to Connected TV marks a new era in political advertising, as a significant portion of likely voters move beyond the reach of traditional TV advertising. Our survey of over 1,000 likely voters who own a Connected TV reveals that 82% watch ad-supported streaming services, and half are open to changing their minds based on new information. You can't afford to miss out. Our 'Direct-to-Glass Playbook For Political Marketers' unveils how CTV + ACR enables better reach and frequency optimization, precise targeting, interactive ad units, and advanced measurement that drive outcomes. Download the playbook now for strategies that transform voter attention into dynamic, impactful, and engaging persuasion and GOTV campaigns. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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