| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | Presented by ExxonMobil | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | FRONTIERS OF IMMERSION JOURNALISM — “My month of living Republicanly,” by WaPo’s Dana Milbank: “I joined for the sole purpose of supporting NIKKI HALEY over DONALD TRUMP in the District of Columbia’s Republican primary, held this past weekend. … But if I was going to register as a Republican, it was only right that I should start acting Republican.” THE NEXT JAN. 6 CRISIS? — Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein note an underappreciated implication of yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling, writing that it might have “opened a path to another Jan. 6 crisis four years after the attack on the Capitol.” “[S]cholars say the 13-page opinion left room for Trump’s detractors to pursue another path if he receives a majority of electoral votes this November: They could try to throw out his electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2025, when Congress will meet to certify the winner of the 2024 election. “Such a scenario would be an extraordinary turnabout. On Jan. 6, 2021, Trump promoted bogus claims of voter fraud to lobby congressional Republicans to block the certification of JOE BIDEN’s victory. … Next time, it may be Democrats insisting that they have the constitutional authority under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause to block Trump from taking office based on his own efforts to derail the transfer of power. “Monday’s decision could fuel that argument — even if the justices didn’t intend for their opinion to be read that way.”
|  You’re about to hear a lot more about Mark Robinson, North Carolina’s beyond-Trumpy lieutenant governor who is poised to win the GOP gubernatorial primary today. | Chris Carlson/AP Photo | THE OTHER RACES TO WATCH — Super Tuesday is super this year not because of the presidential primaries, which have been sapped of much drama, but because of the scores of notable down-ballot races. These contests tend to get overlooked in a presidential year, but the direction of both parties will be shaped by the results in 31 state primaries and caucuses and 115 House district primaries happening today. Start with Steve Shepard’s hour-by-hour guide to the returns. And here’s what we’re watching … Haley’s best states: Watch early returns from Vermont and Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. If Haley is not overperforming in these two states that don’t have partisan voter registration, she’s unlikely to make much of a splash anywhere else tonight. A few other states to keep an eye on if Haley is exceeding expectations: Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota (MARCO RUBIO won it in 2016), Colorado and Utah. North Carolina: You’re about to hear a lot more about MARK ROBINSON, the beyond-Trumpy lieutenant governor who is poised to win the GOP gubernatorial primary today. Here’s a preview from Zach Montellaro: “Robinson … has done all the things that would normally make someone a toxic general election candidate: He’s called homosexuality ‘filth,’ made antisemitic remarks about Hollywood controlling Black people and expressed retrograde views about women. And he’s set to glide to the Republican nomination — and potentially lock Democrats out of state government in one of the country’s biggest swing states.” North Carolina will be a heavy lift for Biden this year (Trump won it in 2016 and 2020), but Robinson is the kind of candidate that the Biden campaign and Democrats will want to highlight nationally as emblematic of MAGA extremism — especially his views on abortion, which he previously wanted to ban without exceptions. Dems will have a lot to work with. In one ad, Robinson’s GOP opponent said Robinson “suggested the Holocaust wasn’t real. Downplayed the Nazis. Promoted HITLER propaganda.” Texas: There are two House primaries to watch, per Steve:
- TX-18: “The top [House] contest is in Houston, where Democratic Rep. SHEILA JACKSON LEE, fresh off a loss in that city’s mayoral race in December, is facing the toughest reelection campaign of her lengthy career. AMANDA EDWARDS, a former city councilor and a one-time Jackson Lee intern, is running a competitive race.”
- TX-23: “GOP Rep. TONY GONZALES faces a challenging primary, driven by his past moderate stances on gun safety and immigration. Gonzales faces multiple challengers, and the runoff threshold could kick the primary into overtime there as well.”
And don’t miss Jonathan Martin’s dispatch from Beaumont: “Fighting the GOP Civil War, Texas Style: AG KEN PAXTON wants revenge. Lt. Gov. DAN PATRICK wants power. The result is a frenzy of Trump-inspired primary challenges that make a TARANTINO movie look tame.”
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: At ExxonMobil, we’ve captured more CO2 than any other company, so we have the expertise to help some of the most carbon-intensive sectors. With more than 30 years' experience, we’re a global leader in carbon capture and storage. Now, we’re advancing projects around the world, including in Louisiana and Texas, to help us and our customers reduce emissions. Let’s deliver. | | | California: Julia Marsh says pay attention to these down-ballot races:
- The Senate primary: Who will join Rep. ADAM SCHIFF on the November ballot: Republican STEVE GARVEY or fellow Democratic Rep. KATIE PORTER? According to late polls, Julia writes, the “two men will likely advance beyond Tuesday, an ideal situation for Schiff who’s all but guaranteed to win in November thanks to the state’s heavily blue electorate.” (Which is, of course, why Schiff spent heavily to elevate Garvey and box Porter out.)
- CA-22: “The political machinations in the Central Valley swing district currently held by GOP Rep. DAVID VALADAO are emblematic of just how tangled California’s jungle primary system can get,” she writes. Democrats fear a nasty rivalry between candidates MELISSA HURTADO and RUDY SALAS could leave them locked out in November, with Valadao instead facing a far-right challenger, CHRIS MATHYS. That would be “highly embarrassing for Democrats as the seat is a key piece of the party’s plan to retake the House.”
- Elsewhere: Two big California cities will vote on candidates and measures that will tell us a lot about liberalism and crime policy in 2024. Progressive prosecutor GEORGE GASCÓN, the Los Angeles County DA, is up for reelection and facing a dozen challengers. And in San Francisco, voters are being asked to decide whether county welfare recipients should be drug-tested and whether police should have new surveillance powers using drones and video.
House Republican primaries: Finally, we’re going to learn a lot about how the GOP is faring when it comes to blocking candidates who party leaders see as unelectable. This lede from Madison Fernandez and Ally Mutnick gives you a taste of the fraught mission today: “A woman who allegedly tried to hit her ex-husband with a car. A 30-year-old who marketed a conspiracy-theory movie. A pastor whose previous campaign was mired in election fraud. These are some of the candidates national Republicans are trying not to nominate this week.” Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. GALLERY WATCH — “Parents of Russian-Held Evan Gershkovich to Attend Biden’s State of the Union,” by WSJ’s Natalie Andrews: “ELLA MILMAN and MIKHAIL GERSHKOVICH will also meet with [Speaker MIKE] JOHNSON ahead of time, along with other guests, as the one-year anniversary of their son’s detainment approaches.” SOSNIK ON THE GENERAL — Our friend DOUG SOSNIK is out with his latest memo on the state of the 2024 elections. A few takeaways we wanted to highlight: — Low turnout? Sosnik sees the meh feeling many voters have towards Trump and Biden as likely to lead to a drop in turnout and “the potential for significant support for third- and minor-party candidates.” — Pessimism is the new normal: Yes, the wrong track numbers are bad for Biden, but that’s normal: “For over 20 years a majority of voters has believed that the country is headed the wrong way. … Not surprisingly, these attitudes have led the electorate to vote against whoever is in power in 10 out of the last 12 elections.” — Biden’s failure: Sosnik, who worked for BILL CLINTON, sees Biden’s poor communication efforts as compounding his problems on the economy and immigration. “Despite many attempts, his administration has never established a clear and enduring narrative that defines his presidency,” he writes. Thursday’s State of the Union is Biden’s “best opportunity to establish this narrative and frame the choice” in the election. — The four key swing voters: Double Haters (“could turn out to be the most important group”) … Independents (Biden won them by 9 in 2020; he and Trump are now tied, per NYT-Siena) … Trump-resistant Republicans (whether Trump is convicted of a crime may determine how they vote) … Suburbanites (voters around Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh “will likely” determine the outcome of the election). — If you only read one chart: Check out the eye-popping numbers on Trump’s advantage over Biden on the top issues. Securing the border: Trump +25 … Having the necessary mental and physical health to be president: Trump +23 … Dealing with the economy: Trump +22 … Dealing with crime: Trump +21.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: The world needs ways to reduce carbon emissions. At ExxonMobil, we’re working on solutions in our own operations – like carbon capture and clean energy from hydrogen – that could also help in other industries like manufacturing, commercial transportation and power generation, too. Helping deliver heavy industry with low emissions. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up RONALD KEOHANE’s Defense nomination, with a cloture vote expected at 5:30 p.m. The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up a variety of bills. 3 things to watch …
- Johnson and fellow Republicans are taking a hot-button national issue — and a local tragedy in Georgia — to the House floor later this week. The Rules Committee meets later today to tee up the LAKEN RILEY Act, named for the nursing student who was allegedly slain by an undocumented immigrant last month. The bill sponsored by Rep. MIKE COLLINS (R-Ga.) would expand federal powers to order the detention of migrants accused of crimes and give states the ability to sue the federal government over immigration harms.
- The race to succeed Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL is getting spicier: Speaking to home-state media yesterday, Sen. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) followed Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) in declaring his intentions to seek the top GOP leadership post. But the more surprising and intriguing development was Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) posting a Mar-a-Lago selfie last night with Trump as he ponders another run.
- Whatever sanctity remains for the federal budget and appropriations process might not even last the week. The old Capitol Hill saw when it comes to budgeting is: The president proposes, Congress disposes. For fiscal 2025, however, the House isn’t even waiting for a proposal. The House Budget Committee has scheduled a Thursday markup for its conservative budget blueprint — four days before Biden is due to unveil his.
At the White House Biden will depart Camp David for the White House in the morning. In the afternoon, Biden will meet with his Competition Council and announce new actions to lower corporate costs for families. VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff.
| | | | CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So, we have something cool for you: our California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | JUDICIARY SQUARE
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The Supreme Court's 14th Amendment ruling dashed any hopes that Democrats had of a miraculous intervention rescuing them from Donald Trump’s reelection campaign. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP | MORE SCOTUS FALLOUT — The reactions and analyses continue rolling in after yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling settled the question of Trump’s ballot eligibility under the 14th Amendment. Among their key takeaways, Kyle, Josh and Zach write about some glaring omissions from the opinion, including “precisely zero analysis about whether Jan. 6 should in fact be deemed an insurrection or whether Trump gave it enough fuel to have engaged in an effort to overthrow the U.S. government.” Meanwhile, “the decision revealed a fractured court,” with only five justices joining “the portion of the court’s unsigned opinion that declared that Congress is the only entity empowered to enforce the insurrection clause.” The political fallout … The ruling also dashed any hopes that Democrats had of a miraculous intervention rescuing them from the former president’s reelection campaign and “exposed the limitations of a critical component of the Democratic case against Trump: that the ex-president was and is bad for democracy,” Adam Wren writes. “For Monday, at least, Trump and his Republican base saw it as a definite win. Even Nikki Haley … told a crowd on Monday that she supported the decision.” Related reads: “Supreme Court Inadvertently Reveals Confounding Late Change in Trump Ballot Ruling,” by Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern … “The Supreme Court’s Unanimous 5–4 Decision,” by National Review’s Andrew McCarthy … “How the Trump ruling puts Dems in a tough spot,” by Nicholas Wu and Daniella Diaz at Inside Congress SEPARATELY — The Supreme Court temporarily blocked the implementation of a divisive Texas state law yesterday, known as S.B. 4, that allows police to detain people suspected of unlawfully crossing the Texas-Mexico border, The Texas Tribune’s Uriel García and William Melhado report. 2024 WATCH JUST POSTED — New polling from a Democratic pollster for the group Save My Country shows how “[l]arge swaths of voters appear to have little awareness of some of Trump’s clearest statements of hostility to democracy and intent to impose authoritarian rule in a second term,” The New Republic’s Greg Sargent reports. MORE POLITICS
|  New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy turned around her losing streak at party county conventions. | AP | MURPHY STRIKES BACK — New Jersey first lady TAMMY MURPHY secured a major victory over Rep. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) last night, landing over 60% of Democratic endorsement votes in the state’s largest county, Daniel Han and Katherine Dailey report from Paramus. “Murphy’s wide margin of victory at the Bergen County Democratic convention blunts Kim’s momentum in the race to replace indicted Sen. BOB MENENDEZ. … With Monday night’s win, she made up significant ground lost early in the county convention season to Kim since Bergen County delivers more Democratic votes than nearly anywhere else in New Jersey.” BIG MOVES IN FLORIDA — Florida Democratic Party Chair NIKKI FRIED moved yesterday to suspend Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair ROBERT DEMPSTER, The Miami Herald’s Max Greenwood reports. “[Fried] described the decision to suspend Dempster as ‘part of an overall strategy to get Miami-Dade back on track’ following a more-than-year-long rough stretch that included a series of disappointing election results for Democrats in the county, as well as internal disputes over Dempster’s leadership.” JUST IN — “Senate Majority PAC drops $2 million ad hitting Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde,” by Anthony Adragna LAKE GOES ON OFFENSE — “Kari Lake targets Ruben Gallego on crime and immigration,” by Axios’ Stephen Neukam
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil:   | | | TRUMP CARDS GEORGIA ON MY MIND — Trump’s legal team wants to put forward another witness in their effort to disqualify Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS from the Georgia election interference case, NYT’s Richard Fausset and Danny Hakim report. The lawyers claim that Cobb County prosecutor CINDI LEE YEAGER can confirm that testimony about the timeline of Willis’ relationship with NATHAN WADE was misleading. But it’s unclear “what impact, if any, Ms. Yeager’s statement could have on a judge’s decision whether to disqualify the prosecutors.” Fulton County Judge SCOTT McAFEE said Friday he’d rule within two weeks. BEHIND THE CURTAIN — “Settlement in Wisconsin fake elector case offers new details on the strategy by Trump lawyers,” by AP’s Sophia Tareen AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  Benny Gantz met yesterday with VP Kamala Harris, national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. | AP | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — As the White House ramps up its efforts to send aid to war-torn Gaza, Harris met yesterday with Israeli war cabinet minister BENNY GANTZ over objections from PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, AP’s Aamer Madhani and Seung Min Kim report: “The moment is reflective of the increasingly awkward dynamics in the U.S.-Israel relationship, with the U.S. forced to fly badly needed aid past its close ally as it looks to ramp up assistance for desperate civilians in Gaza.” The meeting comes after Harris called for an immediate cease-fire in remarks Sunday, comments that NBC’s Yamiche Alcindor, Carol Lee, Courtney Kube and Monica Alba scoop were actually “toned down” by officials at the NSC: “The original draft of Harris’ speech … was harsher on Israel about the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the need for more aid … The move to soften Harris’ comments highlights how reluctant the White House still is to aggressively criticize Israel in public.” Gantz also met with other officials and lawmakers yesterday, including national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and McConnell. He’s meeting with Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER today. Said Gantz after his meeting with McConnell: “I think that I’m explaining Israel’s interest and how I see [the] United States’ interest in that [relationship].” Related reads: “Biden team eyes ways to rush humanitarian aid to Gaza via sea,” by Nahal Toosi and Alexander Ward … “Harris takes more public role criticizing Israel’s actions in Gaza,” by WaPo’s Cleve Wootson Jr., Tyler Pager, Yasmeen Abutaleb and Steve Hendrix THE WHITE HOUSE MORE SOTU PREVIEW — “White House turns to health care in Biden’s latest move against ‘corporate greed,’” by Josh Sisco, Adam Cancryn and Megan Wilson: “The White House plans to announce a new federal task force focused on easing health care costs … The move comes as President Joe Biden seeks new ways to show voters he’s cracking down on the so-called corporate greed that he has increasingly blamed for high prices — a message he is expected to highlight during his State of the Union address on Thursday.” Related read: “White House announces ‘strike force’ on unfair and illegal prices ahead of State of the Union,” by Josh Sisco WAR IN UKRAINE TALE AS OLD AS TIME — “Air Force employee charged with sharing classified info on Russia’s war with Ukraine on dating site,” AP
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Mark Cuban would vote for Joe Biden over Donald Trump even if Biden “was being given last rites.” Peter Baker had a “proud son” moment. Jeff Bezos inched past Elon Musk to reclaim the title of world’s wealthiest man. (That is, if we understand “inched past” to mean “has $2 billion more than.”) Jill Biden congratulated Jason Kelce on his retirement. Kishida Fumio will address Congress in April. IN MEMORIAM — “Mark Giuliano, former FBI deputy director, dies at 62,” by WaPo’s Devlin Barrett: “His career spanned from fighting D.C. street crime in the 1980s to opening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server in 2015.” OUT AND ABOUT — Yesterday, MSNBC launched its inaugural live events series, MSNBC Live, at The Showroom in D.C. with “The March Fourth,” previewing the Super Tuesday contest and Biden’s State of the Union. Luke Russert, Jen Psaki and Stephanie Ruhle interviewed Larry Hogan, Quentin Fulks and Sophia Bush, while Steve Kornacki previewed the state of play for Super Tuesday. SPOTTED: Symone Sanders-Townsend, Marc Short, Maureen Orth, Bob Costa, Kate Bennett, Elizabeth Thorp, Michele Jaconi, Sena Fitzmaurice, Carol Lee, Mike Memoli, Gloria Story Dittus, Bob Barnett, Michael Steele and Anthony Coley. MEDIA MOVE — Kathryn Monahan is now a news associate at CNN. She most recently was a senior PR and digital media fellow at Cogent Strategies. TRANSITIONS — Jonathan Cousimano is now director of federal affairs for California Gov. Gavin Newsom. He previously was senior director for member engagement for the DCCC. … Sarah Bibeau is now a senior account executive at BerlinRosen. She previously was a press adviser at Third Way. … Dave Howell is now a VP at SMI. He most recently was principal deputy director of the Department of Energy’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains. … … P2 Public Affairs is adding Jordan Wiggins as principal and Lindsey Curnette as VP. Wiggins is a Never Back Down and J.D. Vance campaign alum. Curnutte most recently was comms director for Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) and is a Heritage Action for America alum. … Jonathan Levenfeld is now a principal on Precision’s comms team. He previously was a senior strategist at West End Strategy Team and is a Becky Grossman for Congress alum. … Joseph Damond is now chair of global life sciences at Crowell & Moring International. He previously was global chair of health policy at Edelman Global Advisory. ENGAGED — Isaiah Mears, a Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) alum, and Walton Stivender, director of scheduling for Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), got engaged on Friday. They met when she was a staff assistant for former Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), and he was a personal aide for Young. WEEKEND WEDDING — Caroline Darmody, an associate at Jenner & Block, and Jared Jones, IRS Office of Chief Counsel, got married Saturday night at the Army & Navy Club in Washington. The ceremony was officiated by Elizabeth Ann Copeland of the U.S. Tax Court, for whom Jared served as law clerk when she was confirmed to the bench in 2018. The couple met in 2016 on a bipartisan congressional staff delegation to India when Caroline was working for Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Mass.) and Jared was working for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). After a toast from best man Patrick Terrano, the couple honored him by announcing that they had secured his enrollment in the National Purple Heart Hall of Honor. Pic … SPOTTED: Dan Black, Eric Fins, Sarah Curtis, Rachael Goldenberg, Greg Mecher, Jen Psaki, Dan Cluchey, Miriam Becker-Cohen, Clare and Steve Krupin, Isabella More, Natalee Binkholder, Liz Kenigsberg, Alyssa Arute and Vanessa Alviarez. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) … Stephen Goepfert … Jordan Fabian … Fox News’ Chad Pergram … Ken Lerer … MJ Lee … Matthew Albence of GrindStone Strategic Consulting … Alan Miller … Class-Five Strategies’ Erick Mullen … John Twomey … Roy Gutman … April Mellody … Matt Dorf of West End Strategy Team (54) … Kyle Stewart … Phil Hardy … POLITICO’s Anastazja Kolodziej … Fred Davis … Ron Boehmer … Danny Schwarz … CBS’ Jacob Rosen … Win Ellington … Drake Henle … Sarah Little … Peter Metzger … Deloitte’s Carley Berlin … Sharon Block … Daniel Kahneman … Kolby Keo Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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