A MASSIVE COMEBACK FOR AN EMBATTLED POLITICIAN After news broke of a racist, backroom conversation with other City Council members, Kevin De León became about as politically radioactive as you can get while still remaining in office. His refusal to step down sparked protests and unsuccessful recall campaigns. It even led to a tussle with an activist at a Christmas toy drive. But De León, despite experiencing near-political exile since late 2022, has a solid base of supporters and a fractured field of challengers that are likely to keep him in contention for November. A one-on-one reelection contest will be a whole other beast. But if he makes it through, it’ll be one for the books. A WIN FOR THE GOP There is a real chance Republican baseball star Steve Garvey could not only advance, but come out of the primary election with the most votes of any candidate for the California Senate seat — with minimal effort or spending. Unlike past Republican candidates for statewide office, Garvey hasn’t had to dig into his own pockets to make headway. He’s benefited heavily from Schiff’s ad blitz targeting Republicans and raising his profile in the final weeks of the campaign. We should note another factor that could boost Garvey’s primary finish: turnout. California is on track to have a historically low number of ballot returns, with some data prognosticators predicting as low as 29 percent participation. That’s likely to help Republicans more than anyone else, experts say. The polls are already bearing that out. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies recently found that a third of likely voters are expected to be Republicans, and that a disproportionately high number of voters are older, white homeowners — all demographics that lean toward Garvey. Even if Garvey's chances of actually winning the seat in November are slim to none, landing first in any kind of statewide contest is a huge get for the GOP, which has been pushed to near irrelevancy in deep-blue California. FACEPLANTS FOR GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM Newsom has thrown his weight behind two causes this election that face at least an outside chance of failing. His prized Proposition 1 — the $6.4 billion mental health bond that would create 11,000 treatment beds and change how counties spend their mental health budgets — has faced little opposition, but polls show support hovering just above 50 percent, and even the campaign itself has expressed worry about falling below the halfway mark. If it were to fail, it would be a massive loss for the governor on the issue of his tenure — homelessness. Up north, Newsom-backed candidate Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, has been bombarded by negative ads and pushback from locals who are jealously guarding their North Coast Assembly seat. Tonight we’ll know whether his institutional backing is enough to counter the fierce district politics. AN EARLY EXIT FOR INCUMBENTS There’s no greater sign of incumbent vulnerability than failing to advance past the primary. That ignominy is a real possibility for three LA-area candidates: De León, who’s trying to weather a scandal; City Council member Nithya Raman, whose progressive staying power is being tested; and District Attorney George Gascón, who’s facing dismal approval ratings and enormous numbers of both opponents and undecided voters. And then there’s Assemblymember Carlos Villapudua. The moderate Democrat is technically not running for reelection, having pivoted to run for Senate in a last-minute swap with his wife, Edith Villapudua. But now he is confronting the real prospect of getting boxed out by former Rep. Jerry McNerney when he could have likely waltzed to another Assembly term. Oil companies and business interests are spending heavily to prevent that. — with help from Jeremy B. White GOOD MORNING. Happy Tuesday and Happy Primary Election Day. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Stay up late with us tonight as we bring you minute-by-minute coverage of all the biggest races in California — from Palm Desert to San Francisco and everywhere in between. Now you can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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