Wednesday, March 6, 2024

The big down-ballot takeaways from Super Tuesday

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By Madison Fernandez and Lawrence Ukenye

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Televisa Univision

Editor’s note: This is a special edition following Super Tuesday.

TOP LINE

Without too many surprises in the presidential primary on Super Tuesday, down-ballot contests were the ones to watch.

A member of Congress was ousted. Millions of dollars were spent. And there are still some unanswered questions.

Adam Schiff waves.

Rep. Adam Schiff waves at supporters next to his wife at an election night party on March 5, 2024, in Los Angeles. | Jae C. Hong/AP

Here are the highlights from last night, where Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Texas voters hit the polls to vote in congressional elections:

Money talks: Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Calif.) gambit worked: He spent tens of millions of dollars to get a Republican into the general election. Schiff poured in a mammoth $32 million on advertising alone, according to ad tracker AdImpact, including spots that sought to boost Republican Steve Garvey to avoid facing fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in the general election. Schiff also benefited from Fairshake, a pro-crypto PAC, that dropped over $9 million on ads to rail against Porter.

Schiff faces a clear path to victory against Garvey in November, given the Democratic lean of the state. Porter and Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee will be out of Congress.

An upset in Alabama: Republican Rep. Barry Moore beat the odds in a rare — and messy — member-on-member primary in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Jerry Carl. Moore was drawn out of his seat last year after a court ruled that the state needed another district to increase the influence of Black voters.

Carl had a geographical advantage going into the race. And he and his allies hit Moore, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, with a barrage of attacks over the course of months. Conservatives for American Excellence, a group bankrolled by GOP megadonors that played in Republican House primaries across the country, poured in six figures against him, too.

But Moore had the backing of the Club for Growth, whose allied group School Freedom Fund put in over $800,000 in support of him.

… But most primary challengers weren’t so lucky: In Texas’ 18th Congressional District, former Houston City Councilmember Amanda Edwards couldn’t topple longtime incumbent Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee. Pervez Agwan, a progressive challenger to Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher in Texas’ 7th Congressional District, where the Israel-Hamas war was a flashpoint, was also unsuccessful. The same goes for state Sen. Clint Penzo, who ran to the right of Republican Rep. Steve Womack in Arkansas’ 3rd Congressional District.

A mixed bag on candidate quality: Republicans breathed a sigh of relief when the results for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District rolled in. Army veteran Laurie Buckhout defeated Sandy Smith, a repeat candidate who has faced allegations of domestic abuse (which she has denied) and who some feared would be vulnerable in the general election for this battleground seat against Democratic Rep. Don Davis. The Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ main super PAC, spent six figures to boost Buckhout over Smith.

The same didn’t hold true on the statewide level. North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson easily won the GOP nomination for governor, and will face off against Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein. Democrats are hopeful that Robinson’s laundry list of scandals will hurt him in the general election. But Robinson has the support of the RGA, and he could ride on former President Donald Trump’s coattails to victory in the battleground state.

The question marks: The fun isn’t over just yet — a handful of contests are going to runoff elections.

There will be dual runoffs on April 16 in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, the new Black opportunity district: Shomari Figures and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels on the Democratic side, and former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker and attorney Caroleene Dobson for the GOP. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination is the favorite come November.

In Texas’ 23rd District, Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales — who was censured by the Texas GOP after defying the party line on gun control, gay marriage and border security — faces a runoff against pro-gun social media influencer Brandon Herrera. That will take place on May 28.

A handful of districts in North Carolina are also poised to head to runoffs on May 14. That includes the 6th District, where former Rep. Mark Walker and Addison McDowell, a first-time candidate who has a Trump endorsement, will face off. Republicans in the 13th District, an open and safe red seat, will also compete again.

And in the 8th District, Mark Harris — whose apparent general election victory for Congress in 2018 was tossed out after election fraud allegations against an operative paid by his campaign — was in the lead, but if he will avoid a runoff or not was too close to call as of early Wednesday morning.

It’s Wednesday. Send us your takeaways from last night at mfernandez@politico.com/@madfernandez616 and lukenye@politico.com/@Lawrence_Ukenye.

Days until the Mississippi primaries: 6

Days until the Illinois and Ohio primaries: 13

Days until the Pennsylvania primaries: 48

Days until the Republican National Convention: 130

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 166

Days until the 2024 election: 244

 

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

THE RESULTS — Here are some more down-ballot results that we had our eyes on. All of the results are current as of early Wednesday morning. We’ll keep you posted on the uncalled races in the coming days (and potentially weeks).

TX-Sen: Democratic Rep. Colin Allred defeated state Sen. Roland Gutierrez in the primary and will face Republican Sen. Ted Cruz this fall.

CA-09: Democratic Rep. Josh Harder advanced to November, and Stockton Republican Mayor Kevin Lincoln seems poised to join him.

CA-20: Republican state Assemblymember Vince Fong seems likely to advance in the race to succeed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and Democrat Marisa Wood and Republican Mike Boudreaux are battling it out for the second spot.

CA-22: Early returns had Democrats avoiding their worst nightmare of a lockout, with GOP Rep. David Valadao and former Democratic Assemblymember Rudy Salas leading.

CA-47: The contest to replace Porter has been a slugfest, but former Republican state Assemblymember Scott Baugh and Democratic state Sen. Dave Min broke out to an early lead.

CA-49: Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is heading to November, with Republican Matt Gunderson  appearing likely to join.

NC-10: Republican Pat Harrigan won his primary in this open red seat.

NC-13: Republican Kelly Daughtry has advanced to a runoff in the safe red seat, with Brad Knott and Fred Von Canon jockeying for the second spot.

NC-14: Republican state House Speaker Tim Moore easily won his primary and is likely headed to Congress in the fall.

TX-26: Republican Brandon Gill cruised to victory in the primary for the dark red seat.

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST  — Independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she will not seek reelection, our Burgess Everett reported. Sinema, who many expected not to run, drew the ire of many Democrats who felt she scuttled the party's agenda. Her expected departure clears the way for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kari Lake, both of whom are vying for her seat.

CAN’T GET ANY WORSE — Federal prosecutors indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) on Tuesday for allegedly making false statements to investigators. A grand jury returned a dozen new counts and the indictment came after one of Menendez’s associates pleaded guilty to several charges last week and agreed to cooperate with prosecutors. Our Dustin Racioppi and Matt Friedman have more.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is endorsing April McClain Delaney in the crowded Democratic primary for MD-06 to succeed Democratic Rep. David Trone. Her husband John Delaney once represented the district.

 

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Presidential Big Board

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — ABOUT LAST NIGHT Super Tuesday was former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s last stand, as she is planning to end her bid today. “It marks the end of what remained of the GOP’s nominal attempt at soul-searching this presidential cycle, when few of the dozen candidates who signed up to run against Trump would dare to take him on directly,” our Natalie Allison writes.

... Trump and Biden dominated their respective nominating contests last night — but didn’t sweep them. Haley notched a win in Vermont, her first victory in a state. And Jason Palmer, a businessperson from Maryland, won the Democratic caucus in American Samoa.

… Despite Biden hauling delegates in primaries nationwide, another protest vote in Minnesota yielded a higher percentage of “uncommitted” votes than in Michigan, our Jennifer Haberkorn and Myah Ward report.

Biden and Trump are focusing on the general election even harder than they were before. Both will be holding campaign events in Georgia this weekend, with Trump appearing at a rally in Rome, Ga., and Biden campaigning in the Atlanta area. The president will also participate in events in Philadelphia on Friday, a day after his State of the Union address.

SECRET MEETING — Trump met with tech mogul Elon Musk on Sunday as his campaign looks to attract new donors, The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Ryan Mac report. While Musk has previously shied away from donating heavily to presidential campaigns, his recent social media posts have sharply criticized Biden, specifically on his handling of the migrant crisis. Trump’s cash crunch also comes as his campaign continues to grapple with his high legal fees.

GAINING STEAM — Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he’s gathered enough signatures to appear on Nevada’s presidential ballot, our Brittany Gibson reports. Kennedy has worked feverishly to gain access to several state ballots and his super PAC, American Values 2024, is also working to get him on the ballot elsewhere.

IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED — A resolution introduced by an RNC committee member to prevent the organization from paying Trump’s legal fees is now dead, our Natalie Allison reports. The proposal, put forth by Henry Barbour, did not gain enough traction to be considered for a vote on Friday. Although Trump’s campaign has tried to tame fears that the former president will use the RNC to pay his legal fees, some of his critics remain skeptical as he approaches clinching the party’s nomination.

 

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AS SEEN ON TV

WI-Sen — Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic super PAC, launched an ad portraying Republican Eric Hovde as an “California banker,” our Anthony Adragna reports. The spot is airing statewide in Wisconsin.

MS-Sen — American Chemistry Council is up with a spot backing Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) for being a “champion for Mississippi workers and families.”

OH-Sen — Republican Bernie Moreno is touting his endorsement from Trump.

… Buckeye Leadership Fund, a super PAC backing Republican Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan, is going after Moreno and Republican Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.

MD-06 — Delaney is running her first ad emphasizing her tech experience from her time in the Biden administration.

 

Don’t sleep on it. Get breaking New York policy from POLITICO Pro—the platform that never sleeps—and use our Legislative Tracker to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more.

 
 
STAFFING UP

— Sarah Abel is now deputy executive director of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. She previously served as former Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind’s communications director.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president.” — Crystal Carson, Obama’s communications director, on 2024.

 

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