Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Senator Schiff, plus other election takeaways

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Mar 06, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade

Presented by ExxonMobil

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

Adam Schiff waves.

As expected, Adam Schiff prevailed in the California Senate primary to replace the late Dianne Feinstein last night. | Jae C. Hong/AP

DRIVING THE DAY
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THE SHORT VERSION — It’s ADAM SCHIFF vs. STEVE GARVEY in CaliforniaNIKKI HALEY wins Vermont, is still in the raceDONALD TRUMP dominates GOP delegate derby … JOE BIDEN wins everywhere except — American Samoa? … Dems on track to avoid CA-22 boxout disaster … Freedom Caucus Rep. BARRY MOORE beats Rep. JERRY CARL in Alabama primary … Republican moderates head for runoffs in Texas

IF YOU CLICK ON ONE THING — “7 things Super Tuesday just taught us about the November election,” by the POLITICO politics crew

THE DEEP DIVE — It’s Super Wednesday Morning, and we stayed up all night sifting through the returns from 15 states and American Samoa (who knew that would matter?) to distill the key themes from yesterday’s festival of democracy. Here’s what we’ve got our eyes on:

The big picture for Trump: Trump lost Vermont to Haley, but he continued his steady ramble to the GOP nomination, winning at least 722 of the 865 delegates at stake yesterday, and remains on track to become presumptive nominee later this month.

As with previous primaries and caucuses, the biggest question inside the GOP is, what percentage of Haley voters can Trump potentially win over? Last night added quite a bit of data to help answer that — thanks to exit polls in Virginia, North Carolina, and California that included this question: “If Donald Trump were to be convicted of a crime, would you consider him fit to be president?”

In Virginia: 37% of GOP voters said no (16% of Trump voters and 80% of Haley voters) … In North Carolina: 31% of GOP voters said no (30% Trump, 60% Haley) … And in California: 23% of GOP voters said no (23% Trump, 71% Haley).

Whether Trump is a convict or not by Nov. 5 remains the greatest wildcard of 2024.

— The big picture for Biden: While he won easily everywhere — OK, almost everywhere, more on that in a moment — there were pockets of discontent. Across several states progressives opposed to Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war organized protest campaigns, as they did in Michigan last week.

In Minnesota, “uncommitted” received 19%. In North Carolina, which the Biden campaign says this morning is a targeted swing state for the general election, “no preference” received 13%. In Massachusetts, “no preference” received 9%. In Colorado, “noncommitted delegate” received 8%. In Tennessee, “uncommitted” received 8%.

The Biden campaign downplays these numbers, and Democratic strategists insist these voters would never back Trump or that the issue will fade by November. The problem for Biden is that the potential solution is beyond his control. Last week, you’ll recall, the president claimed on the eve of the Michigan primary that a Gaza cease-fire was imminent. Yesterday Biden said the cease-fire is “in the hands of Hamas right now.”

— Jason who? Biden suffered his first defeat of the nominating season, losing the Democratic caucus in American Samoa 51 to 40 (as in votes, not percentage points) to JASON PALMER, a 52-year-old entrepreneur who campaigned as a youthful alternative to the president. (Politico’s Jackie Padilla profiled Palmer in January.) American Samoa, which does not vote in the general election, has a quirky caucus history: MICHAEL BLOOMBERG won there in 2020, and in 2016, “uncommitted” won.

Beyond the mild embarrassment, it’s not going to matter much to Biden: Both the incumbent and Palmer won two delegates, according to territorial party officials. Still, that’s more than DEAN PHILLIPS and MARIANNE WILLIAMSON, who have yet to win a delegate. No word on whether Palmer will have a speaking slot in Chicago.

— Haley dropout watch: Despite denying Trump a Super Tuesday sweep, Haley made no public remarks last night. OLIVIA PEREZ-CUBAS, her spokesperson, said in an initial statement that Haley was watching the returns with staff. “The mood is jubilant,” she added.

After Vermont was called for Haley, Perez-Cubas hinted in a second statement at what could be a new stage of the campaign: brokering a detente with the MAGA wing: “Today, in state after state, there remains a large block of Republican primary voters who are expressing deep concerns about Donald Trump. That is not the unity our party needs for success. Addressing those voters’ concerns will make the Republican Party and America better.”

The Trump campaign appears to be in no mood to deal, if the reaction of campaign honcho JASON MILLER is any guide. “Her campaign is broke, the majority of her votes come from non-Republicans invading the Republican primary, and there’s no pathway to victory,” he told us. “The delusion is real!”

— Schiff looking golden: As expected, Schiff prevailed in the California Senate primary to replace the late DIANNE FEINSTEIN, and he managed to buy himself an easy general election against Garvey, the GOP candidate he and allies boosted with millions of dollars in ads. “The twin wins put Schiff on a glidepath to the Senate,” write Chris Cadelago and Melanie Mason.

As usual, we’ll have to wait until California finishes its multi-day vote counting to have the full picture about some of the other notable down-ballot races. But it does appear that Democrats avoided one nightmare scenario, with Democrat RUDY SALAS holding a roughly 2,000-votelead over a hard-right Republican challenger in the race to take on GOP Rep. DAVID VALADAO.

More from California: “City of peace and love votes for drug screening and more police surveillance,” by Dustin Gardiner … “Katie Porter swipes at special interests, billionaires and Adam Schiff,” by Melanie Mason

— Lone Star purge: In the Texas race likely to get the most national ink, Democratic Rep. COLIN ALLRED avoided a primary runoff and earned the right to face off against Sen. TED CRUZ where some polls have shown a potentially tight race but Allred is facing doubts he can outperform BETO O’ROURKE in a year when Trump is on the ballot.

The bigger story in Texas is the gains made by right-wing populists against GOP incumbents across the state. As the Texas Tribune’s Karen Brooks Harper reports: “Texas voters on Tuesday handed more power to the insurgent wing of the Republican Party in an expensive and vengeful primary election, punishing GOP lawmakers, judges and a House speaker who defied hard-right state leaders and their supporters in recent years.

“Most notably, Speaker DADE PHELAN, R-Beaumont, was forced into a runoff with a well-funded challenger, DAVID COVEY, after being targeted by ultra-conservative donors and activists, who faulted the second-term speaker for declining to stop the impeachment of Attorney General KEN PAXTON last May.”

Elsewhere, Rep. TONY GONZALES, who has bucked the GOP line on votes over same-sex marriage and gun control, failed to pass the 50% threshold in his primary, forcing him into a runoff with BRANDON HERRERA, a “firearm salesman and YouTube personality.” More from the San Antonio Report

— MAGA vs. mega(donors): Several deep-red districts Tuesday showcased primaries between problematic right-wingers and a more establishment-friendly option where outside groups swooped in to block the more untamed candidates, most of whom are backed by the House Freedom Caucus. Here’s how six of those MAGA targets fared against the megadonors last night:

  • AL-01: Rep. Barry Moore, who ran on his HFC bona fides, won his member-member primary over Rep. Jerry Carl.
  • NC-08: MARK HARRIS, whose 2018 House victory was overturned due to ballot fraud, won his primary.
  • NC-06: BO HINES, who lost a swing seat for the GOP in 2022, came in fourth place behind Trump-endorsed ADDISON McDOWELL and former Rep. MARK WALKER, who advance to a runoff.
  • NC-01: SANDY SMITH, facing multiple allegations of domestic abuse, lost to Army veteran LAURIE BUCKHOUT, who will face incumbent Democrat DON DAVIS in this tossup district. 
  • TX-12: JOHN O’SHEA, who is aligned with the trouble-making faction of the Texas GOP led by Paxton, came in a distant second to megadonor-backed CRAIG GOLDMAN but managed to advance to a runoff.
  • TX-26: BRANDON GILL, who helped market father-in-law DINESH D’SOUZA’s election conspiracy movie “2000 Mules,” won his primary.

Final score … MAGA 3, Megadonors 2, TBD 1 (but looking good for the donors).

— We got the memos: Finally, a couple of post-Super Tuesday memos are floating around this morning with the two parties’ spin on the results.

The Biden campaign is out with a five-pager that argues (1) Trump’s coalition is more divided than Biden’s (see above), (2) Trump’s campaign is “cash-strapped” and structurally weaker than Biden’s (see below) and (3) that Biden has an advantage on key issues, such as reproductive rights. The Biden campaign is also talking a big game when it comes to expanding the map, claiming a potential push into Florida. Uh huh, we’ve heard that one before.

The NRCC is out with a polling memo arguing the GOP has big advantages on the issue of immigration, citing results from 55 battleground districts. One big takeaway: “voters believe every state is a border state.” We certainly saw that in the recent special election on Long Island, where immigration dominated. But the GOP immigration advantage hyped in the memo has its limits: The NRCC poll was in the field from Feb. 7-12; on Feb. 13, Democrat TOM SUOZZI won that New York race.

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your Super Tuesday takeaways: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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SHOT — “Biden’s plan for Trump: Bury him with campaign cash,” by Elena Schneider: “A massive avalanche of spending is about to come the former president’s way.”

CHASER — “Donald Trump, Seeking Cash Infusion, Meets With Elon Musk,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Ryan Mac: “With a net worth of around $200 billion, according to Forbes, [ELON MUSK] could … potential, almost single-handedly, erase what is expected to be Mr. Biden and his allies’ huge financial advantage over the former president.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s campaign announced that he now has sufficient signatures to get on the ballot in Nevada. More from Brittany Gibson

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Former senior Trump aide HOPE HICKS is doing strategic comms consulting for controversial fast fashion retailer Shein, which has attracted recent attention in Washington for its ties to China, two people familiar with the matter told our Daniel Lippman.

The company has faced intense scrutiny over claims that some of its clothes are made with the forced labor of Chinese Uyghurs (claims that the company has pushed back on) and also over its reliance on the “de minimis” tariff exemption. Shein, which was founded in China, relocated to Singapore from Nanjing in 2021 and hired lobbyists in Washington last year.

Hicks has a small consulting firm with several corporate clients which she advises on strategic comms. She has consulted for Shein for about a year, according to one of the people, but her consulting contract with the company has never been publicly reported. Hicks and a spokesperson for Shein declined to comment.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The House will meet at 10 a.m. and at noon will take up several bills, with votes expected at 3:30 p.m. Fed Chair JEROME POWELL will testify before the Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. TIM TEBOW will testify before a Judiciary subcommittee at 10 a.m. about cracking down on child sexual abuse. GOP leaders will hold a pre-State of the Union press conference at 10:15 a.m.

The Senate is in.

3 things to watch …

  1. Rubber hits road today for the (partial) bipartisan spending deal notched over the weekend. The six-bill, $459 billion appropriations package, first of two minibuses, will go to the House floor this afternoon under suspension of the rules, meaning it will need a two-thirds majority to pass. Will it get it? Probably, but check the vibes coming out of this morning’s House GOP conference meeting, where Speaker MIKE JOHNSON will have to defend his meager gains.
  2. The latest twist in the race to replace MITCH McCONNELL: Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) last night endorsed imposing term limits on the Senate GOP leader for the first time “because I believe the Senate needs more engagement from all of my colleagues.” Note that term limits already apply to junior Senate Republican leaders, which is why Cornyn is now without a formal post after spending six years as party whip.
  3. Playbook sends its condolences to Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), who lost her mother, PATRICIA COLLINS, at age 96 over the weekend. She was the first woman to serve as mayor of Caribou, Maine, and a former chair of the UMaine System board of trustees, per the Portland Press Herald. (In case you were wondering, her death did not keep her daughter from voting yesterday and keeping her consecutive vote streak alive.)

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Madison, Wisconsin, where she and acting Labor Secretary JULIE SU will meet with apprentices and then deliver remarks at the construction site for what will be the Madison Metro Transit facility. Harris will speak later at a campaign event before returning to Washington.

On the trail

A big group of more than 100 GOP members of Congress are hosting a fundraiser for Trump tonight in D.C., per CNN’s Melanie Zanona.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) departs the U.S. Capitol after a vote March 5, 2024. She announced earlier in the day that she will not seek reelection for another Senate term this year. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) announced yesterday that she won’t run for reelection. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

HOME SINEMA — In a move that could shake up both the Senate as an institution and the campaign to control it, Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) announced yesterday that she won’t run for reelection. Her decision, one of the last big ones on the Senate map, had been seen as a real question mark. The centrist former Democrat — who evolved over the course of her career from Green Party activist to big business favorite — has been surprising Washington, alternately infuriating both parties and negotiating bipartisan bills for years. More from Business Insider’s Bryan Metzger on what could come next for her

She sounded alarm bells about the state of American politics in her farewell video: “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now,” Sinema said. “Despite modernizing our infrastructure, ensuring clean water, delivering good jobs and safer communities, Americans still choose to retreat farther to their partisan corners.”

On the campaign trail, Sinema’s retirement sets up a November battle between Democratic Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO and Republican KARI LAKE; the moderates who supported Sinema — or a potential endorsement from her — could be influential.

And on the Hill, she’s just the latest in a line of moderate dealmakers — including Sens. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) and JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) — to head for the exits. Not only could that change congressional negotiations, it may also put the Senate filibuster on life support, Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano report.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz arrives at the US State Department ahead of a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on March 5, 2024 in Washington DC. (Photo by Drew ANGERER / AFP) (Photo by DREW ANGERER/AFP via Getty Images)

Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz arrives at the State Department ahead of a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken on March 5. | Drew Angerer/AFP via Getty Images

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Trump has largely avoided staking out positions on the Israel-Hamas war for the past few months, but yesterday he finally got specific, telling Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade about Israel’s military campaign, “You’ve got to finish the problem.”

Israeli minister BENNY GANTZ met yesterday with Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, capping a stretch of D.C. meetings in which he got chewed out by Biden administration official for Israel’s conduct of the war, Axios’ Barak Ravid reveals. “[T]he White House has lost its patience and is ratcheting up pressure on the Israeli government,” he reports, with last week’s mass-casualty incident at an aid convoy a particular “turning point” for the U.S. That comes as outrage swells among Senate Democrats about the 30,000 Palestinians dead, with even Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) pushing the White House to pressure Israel, AP’s Farnoush Amiri and Ellen Knickmeyer report.

Where the White House isn’t going yet: turning off the military support spigot for Israel. NBC’s Dan De Luce, Carol Lee, Julie Tsirkin, Courtney Kube and Allie Raffa report that the administration is “[r]eluctant to enter into a full-blown confrontation with Israel.”

Reality check: “‘It’s not like the movies’: Why delivering aid to Gaza by sea gets complicated quickly,” by Lara Seligman: “Delivering supplies through a maritime corridor can be difficult and dangerous.”

THE WHITE HOUSE 

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A coalition of several dozen prominent groups, led by Democracy Sentry, are urging Biden to go further than he has before in prioritizing voting rights at tomorrow’s State of the Union. Ranging from the Brennan Center to the Sierra Club to the League of Women Voters to Planned Parenthood Action Fund, the organizations in a new letter cast the stakes for American democracy in existential terms. Read it here

That’s just one of a myriad of pressures bearing down on the White House for this SOTU, which has massive stakes for Biden’s political fortunes, Adam Cancryn reports. The president will seek to set out a narrative that America is experiencing a “historic revival” and that November boils down to a fundamental choice between his progress and Trump’s danger; his performance also needs to reassure Americans he’s fit for office. Gavin Bade this morning steers a big roundup from various members of the POLITICO newsroom of what to watch in the speech, from abortion to Gaza to immigration.

And the guest lists are starting to click into place for the big speech. Several Democrats are bringing doctors and people with personal ties to abortion or in vitro fertilization, as the party looks to put the GOP on the defensive on those issues, Megan Messerly reports. But two big invitees said no: Ukrainian first lady OLENA ZELENSKA and YULIA NAVALNAYA, the widow of ALEXEI NAVALNY, both turned down White House offers to attend, WaPo’s John Hudson and Tyler Pager scooped.

 

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JUDICIARY SQUARE

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) is seen during a press conference discussing immigration and Ukraine emergency supplemental negotiations outside the U.S. Capitol Dec. 13, 2023. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Federal prosecutors added new criminal charges in a superseding indictment for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and his wife. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

WHAT ABOUT BOB? — It keeps getting worse for Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.). Federal prosecutors once again added new criminal charges in a superseding indictment for Menendez and his wife, NADINE ARSLANIAN MENENDEZ, now accusing them of obstruction of justice, NJ Advance Media’s Ted Sherman reports.

The dozen new counts allege that the Menendezes offered bribes with checks and gold bars and had their lawyers lie about it to hide the crime. “I am innocent and will prove it no matter how many charges they continue to pile on,” the senator said in a statement, adding that the new charges were a “flagrant abuse of power,” our colleagues Dustin Racioppi and Matt Friedman report. He stands accused overall of a brazen corruption scheme that involved multiple foreign countries while he was Senate Foreign Relations chair; a trial is due for May.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The White House is sending its campaign to get judicial nominee ADEEL MANGI confirmed into overdrive. A White House official tells us that chief of staff JEFF ZIENTS, counsel ED SISKEL and director of legislative affairs SHUWANZA GOFF are calling senators this week to try to advance Mangi. That comes on top of a concerted push by the White House and outside allies, including prominent Jewish groups, to rebut what they deem bigoted criticisms of Mangi, who’d be “the first Muslim American federal appellate judge,” Katherine Tully-McManus reports. (Republican senators asked him about Israel-Hamas and 9/11.)

POLICY CORNER

FED UP — “How to Survive in Washington the Jay Powell Way,” by Victoria Guida: “Powell isn’t one of the great economic theorists of our time. His resilience as Fed chair comes down in part to raw political skill.”

TRUMP CARDS

HOW CLOSE WE CAME — “Docs reveal new details of Trump lawyer’s fringe push to overturn 2020 election,” by Kyle Cheney: “The emails and texts show [KENNETH] CHESEBRO was fixated on the areas of the transfer of power that had few guardrails.”

THE NEW GOP — “RNC resolution to prohibit paying Trump's legal bills is ‘dead,’” by Natalie Allison

 

CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Aloe Blacc celebrated with Adam Schiff.

Michael Bennet, John Boozman, Michael Burgess and Anna Eshoo received the March of Dimes 2024 March for Change Award.

Elaine Kamarck, Chris Cadelago, Gabriel Sanchez and Bill Kristol will analyze the Super Tuesday results via Brookings today.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party last night for James Swanson’s new book, “The Deerfield Massacre: A Surprise Attack, a Forced March, and the Fight for Survival in Early America” ($30), at the American Trucking Association HQ on Capitol Hill: Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Reps. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Mike Bost (R-Ill.) and Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), Roy Blunt, Richard Abate, Jess Bravin, Joe Crowley, Jack Evans, John Gizzi, Sadie Gurman, Mark Paoletta and Rod Rosenstein.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ted Mann will be a reporter at Bloomberg covering money in Washington. He most recently was a reporter on the Washington business team at the WSJ, where he was laid off and then offered a job back at the Journal but turned it down.

MEDIA MOVE — Andrew Ackerman has returned to the WSJ to cover financial regulation. He was laid off from the Journal a few weeks ago.

TRANSITIONS — Victoria Nuland is retiring from her role as undersecretary of State for political affairs, the No. 3 post at Foggy Bottom, per WaPo. She’s been a longtime Europe/Russia hand at State. John Bass will temporarily fill in for her. … Dan Black is now a VP at Lot Sixteen. He most recently was chief of staff to Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), and is a Joe Kennedy III alum. … Jared DeWese is now the press secretary for The NewDEAL Leaders. He most recently was deputy comms director for Rep. David Trone’s Maryland Senate campaign and is a Third Way alum. …

… Liz Bourgeois is now doing comms at OpenAI. She most recently was chief comms officer at Handshake and is a Treasury and Meta alum. … Donald Blersch is now SVP of government innovation at Clearspeed. He previously was senior coordinator for security infrastructure in the State Department’s Bureau of Diplomatic Security. … Neely Agin has rejoined Norton Rose Fulbright as U.S. head of antitrust in its D.C. office. She previously was a partner in Winston & Strawn’s antitrust and competition practice.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former CIA Director William Webster (1-0-0) … former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan (98) … David Urban (6-0) … White House’s Brandon ChadertonJim BourgAnthony Foti … SKDK’s Jacqui NewmanJohn Stossel Jonathan Day David Bradley Sandra Salstrom Parker Brugge Joe Perticone Brooke Gladstone … NFL’s Brendon Plack Emily Leviner Anna KopperudChris Leavitt … Co-Equal’s Karen LightfootKaty BaylessTim Bergreen … NYT’s Eileen Murphy Saul Anuzis … former Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.) … Pablo ChavezAri Spinoza Kara CarscadenKim Moxley … Albemarle’s Alex StromanMinah Malik

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Lindsey Curnutte’s name and included outdated employer information about her.

 

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