News: Moreno cruises in Ohio GOP Senate primary, House incumbents survive

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Moreno cruises in Ohio GOP Senate primary, House incumbents survive

Mar 20, 2024

View in browser

By Madison Fernandez and Lawrence Ukenye

Presented by

Editor’s note: This is a special edition following last night's primaries in Ohio and Illinois.

TOP LINE

The front-runners all won Tuesday night. But it took a lot of drama to get there.

Republican businessperson Bernie Moreno emerged victorious from the messy Ohio Senate primary to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Republicans got their nominees in a handful of competitive House districts that they’re looking to flip come the fall. And several incumbents held off tough primary challengers.

Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, points to the crowd during his primary election night watch party in Westlake, Ohio, Tuesday, March 19, 2024. (AP Photo/David Dermer)

Cleveland businessperson Bernie Moreno, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, points to the crowd during his primary election night watch party in Westlake, Ohio, on March 19, 2024. | David Dermer/AP

Here’s what to know from last night’s big down-ballot races:

Trump had a good night: Former President Donald Trump’s candidates of choice all prevailed last night.

Moreno’s victory was the biggest win for Trump. Long before Trump endorsed him, Moreno sought to link himself to the former president. He benefited from Trump’s endorsement, as well as the backing of MAGA-world, including Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Arizona Republican Kari Lake and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

In Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, Trump-backed state Rep. Derek Merrin won in the primary to take on longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur . But Trump’s endorsement — which came the day before the primary — likely wasn’t as much of a factor in his win as was the more than $750,000 spent by the Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ main super PAC.

Republican Rep. Mike Bost won a tight primary with former state legislator Darren Bailey, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022. Bailey was running to Bost’s right, but ended up coming short and conceded the race before it was called by The Associated Press. Trump threw his backing behind the incumbent even though he had endorsed both of them in their respective bids during the midterms.

And even in races where Trump didn’t endorse, he’s poised to have loyal supporters should he win the White House later this year. In Ohio’s 6th District, state Sen. Michael Rulli, who made his allegiance to Trump clear throughout his campaign, secured the GOP nomination for this deep-red seat. He won both the special election primary and the regularly scheduled primary election, and is poised to claim the seat in the June special election. The same goes in Ohio’s 2nd District, where businessperson David Taylor — a self-described “Trump conservative” — won the primary for the soon-to-be-open deep red seat. He’s the strong favorite to win in the fall.

Challengers, not so much: Challengers had a tough night. Illinois Democratic Reps. Chuy García, Danny Davis and Bill Foster each faced notable opponents last night — none of whom were successful.

Garcia beat Raymond Lopez, a member of the Chicago City Council, who was running to the progressive’s right. Progressive challengers failed, too: Qasim Rashid, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in Virginia in 2020, lost to Foster.

And third time was not the charm for Kina Collins, who again failed to unseat Davis after trying in 2020 and 2022. She came close in the midterms, but finished in third place behind Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin this time around. Collins was targeted by the United Democracy Project, the super PAC arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which spent close to $500,000 against her.

And although it was close for Bailey, he ultimately wasn’t able to overtake the incumbent.

Last night was a continuation of a losing streak for challengers. In down-ballot Super Tuesday primaries earlier this month, none of the primary challengers were successful (with the exception of Alabama’s member-on-member primary, where one incumbent was inevitably going to lose).

Competitive matchups are set: Some of what are expected to be the most competitive House matchups come the fall are now set.

In Ohio’s 1st District, Republican attorney Orlando Sonza will take on Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman, who flipped the seat by 5 points in the midterms. (That race had little fanfare — neither had a primary challenger.)

The race between Kaptur and Merrin will likely be a high-dollar affair. She’s one of a handful of Democrats currently representing a seat that Trump would have won in 2020, and Republicans are looking to redeem themselves after a bruising loss in the midterms.

Ohio’s 13th District will be a matchup between Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin. President Joe Biden would have won the battleground district by around 3 points in 2020.

Over in Illinois, Democratic Rep. Nikki Budzinski and Republican veteran Joshua Loyd are facing off in the 13th District. Budzinski won by more than 10 points in 2022, but the DCCC has named her a member of its Frontline program, which supports vulnerable incumbents. In the 17th District, Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen will be competing against retired Republican circuit court judge Joe McGraw. Sorensen won by around 4 points in the midterms.

Happy Wednesday. What are your takeaways from last night? Let us know at mfernandez@politico.com/@madfernandez616 and lukenye@politico.com/@Lawrence_Ukenye.

Days until the Alabama runoffs: 27

Days until the Pennsylvania primaries: 34

Days until the Indiana primaries: 48

Days until the North Carolina runoffs and Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 55

Days until the Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon primaries: 62

Days until the Texas runoffs: 69

Days until the Republican National Convention: 116

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 152

Days until the 2024 election: 230

A message from PREMION Political:

Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

CALIFORNIA CONTINUES — Republican California state Assemblymember Vince Fong advanced to a May runoff in the special election to finish the rest of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s term. He was unable to clear the 50 percent hurdle needed to avoid a runoff. Fong, McCarthy’s successor of choice, was also the top vote-getter in the regularly scheduled primary in the deep-red 20th District for the term starting in 2025. He’s facing Republican Mike Boudreaux, a county sheriff, in the fall — but the victor of the special election will have an advantage come then.

ON SECOND THOUGHT — Republican Scott Mayer will skip a Wisconsin Senate primary battle with Eric Hovde, telling the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Lawrence Andrea that he wants to avoid a “bloody” race. His decision not to enter the race comes after publicly flirting with the idea of launching a campaign, including saying that he had begun building out a staff before walking back those comments.

JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE.

Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

2024 WATCH — Democrat Liz Dahan is joining the increasingly crowded field looking to unseat Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in FL-13. Dahan was most recently a partner at Brunswick Group, an advisory firm.

PRIMARY DIVIDE — Republican Virginia state Sen. John McGuire, who is primarying Rep. Bob Good, is getting a slew of support from Good’s colleagues. Republican Reps. Mike Rogers (Ala.), Austin Scott (Ga.), Jen Kiggans (Va.), Ryan Zinke (Mont.), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.) and Morgan Luttrell (Texas) will be guests at a McGuire fundraiser, per our Olivia Beavers.

POOR CHOICE OF WORDS — Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) told Pod Save America that she regrets saying that her failure to advance in the state’s Senate primary was because it was “rigged.” Her social media outburst was met with swift blowback from Democrats, who criticized her for echoing Trump’s election rhetoric. Our Jeremy B. White has more.

ON BLAST — Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos slammed organizers who sought to oust him in a recall, calling them “whack jobs” and “morons,” the Journal-Sentinel’s Molly Beck reports. Vos claims that an investigation launched by his campaign found that the recall effort included forged signatures and was aided by felons. Organizers sought to remove Vos for his criticism of Trump and refusal to impeach the state’s top election official.

NY LEAVES IT BLANK TOO — New York’s Board of Elections will not include the number of blank ballots in its election night results, dealing a blow to organizers participating in the “Leave it Blank” campaign aimed at protesting Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, City & State’s Rebecca C. Lewis reports. Ramos DeBarros, an organizer and former House candidate, called the state’s decision not to report “antithetical to the transparency necessary for a healthy democracy.”

A message from PREMION Political:

Presidential Big Board

RAKING IT IN — The League of Conservation Voters, a climate advocacy group, plans to raise $120 million to ensure Biden wins reelection, bringing the amount pledged by outside groups backing the president to $1 billion, The New York Times’ Reid J. Epstein reports.

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) told Indiana journalist Dave Bangert he would not vote for Trump, saying that he’s tired of his vote being “taken for granted.”

DON’T MISS AN IMPORTANT TALK ON ACCESS TO AFFORDABLE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS IN CA: Join POLITICO on March 19 to dive into the challenges of affordable prescription drugs accessibility across the state. While Washington continues to debate legislative action, POLITICO will explore the challenges unique to California, along with the potential pitfalls and solutions the CA Legislature must examine to address prescription drug affordability for its constituents. REGISTER HERE.

AS SEEN ON TV

FIRST IN SCORE — WV-Gov — Club for Growth Action is out with its latest ad attacking Chris Miller in the state’s open Republican primary. The ad dings Miller for taking PPP loans, adding that “Miller’s congresswoman mom voted for the program that handed her son’s businesses millions.”

PRESIDENTIAL — The Biden campaign is out with ads targeting Hispanic and Asian American voters.

MO-Gov — American Dream PAC, which backs Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, is up with an ad attacking Republican Jay Ashcroft for allowing Chinese companies to buy land in Missouri.

PA-12 — Democratic Rep. Summer Lee is touting her voting record and endorsement from Planned Parenthood.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “DISREGARD CONCESSION EMAIL.” — Republican OH-02 candidate Derek Myers, who sent a concession email Tuesday afternoon as voting was underway. (He ended up losing.)

A message from PREMION Political:

Premium OTT for winning electoral & issue advocacy campaigns
Nielsen reports TV viewers are continuing to choose streaming over cable. Premium OTT is the best way to engage those viewers for winning campaigns in 2024. PREMION Political has the dedicated and experienced team- plus proven & new premium products, including programmatic, dynamic creative, and incremental reach attribution- to help you win. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential here.