MOTIVATING FACTOR: Mayor Brandon Johnson isn’t on today’s primary ballot, but the power of the progressive movement that put him in City Hall is looming over the vote and could determine how strong his forces really are in Chicago. Voter turnout is expected to be low since the presidential match-up was decided last week when President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump clinched enough delegates to win their parties’ presidential nominations. The wild card: Lower voter turnout generally benefits incumbents, though the energy for and against the Bring Chicago Home referendum could motivate voters, at least in Chicago. “The far left is highly organized, and has the ability and organization to turn its voters out,” veteran Chicago political consultant Becky Carroll told Crain’s Greg Hinz. Here's what we’re watching: — The Cook County state’s attorney Democratic primary will determine who likely succeeds Kim Foxx. The winner faces Republican Bob Fioretti in November. Today’s race pits former prosecutor and judge Eileen O'Neill Burke against former prosecutor Clayton Harris III. O’Neill Burke has the backing of moderate Democrats and much of the business community vs. Harris, who's supported by Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and the Chicago Teachers Union. The issue setting them apart is how to prosecute retail theft. Foxx’s policy was to not prosecute as a felony unless the value of the stolen goods exceeded $1,000 — even though state law sets the felony threshold at $300. O’Neill Burke said she would follow the state law, and Harris has said he would continue Foxx’s policy. — The Bring Chicago Home referendum: If passed, the city would increase the real estate transfer tax for property sales above $1 million. It’s part of Johnson’s campaign promise to tax the wealthy to help those in need. Opponents, especially from the real estate community, say it will hurt property sales and force business owners to transfer the costs to renters. Pluse some worry there’s no plan in place for how the monies will be spent. The Sun-Times’ Fran Spielman has more. — IL-12: The Trump factor is in full display in this Republican primary. Congressman Mike Bost won a much sought-after endorsement from the former president. But Darren Bailey, a former state lawmaker who ran unsuccessfully for governor, has a strong MAGA base. They’re both conservative Republicans, but Bailey has portrayed himself as being to the right of Bost. Today’s vote will show whether Donald Trump has more sway than MAGA conservatism. — IL-07: This Illinois Democratic primary has two themes running through it: incumbent Congressman Danny Davis’ age — 82 — and left-wing activism trying to make inroads in the district. Davis, who took office in 1997, says his longevity is an asset. His opponents say it’s time for a change. Davis' challengers are Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who has the support of the Chicago Teachers Union, and left-wing activist Kina Collins, who has twice lost to Davis. Collins has made the Middle East war an issue and has drawn opposition ads by the super PAC funded by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Also in the race: Kouri Marshall and Nikhil Bhatia. — IL-11: Congressman Bill Foster faces Qasim Rashid, a Pakistani-American attorney and activist who also has made the Israel-Hamas conflict central to his campaign. In the early days of the war, Foster didn't support a cease-fire but has since called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. — Senate District 20: Millions of dollars have poured into this contest for a seat now held by recently appointed state Sen. Natalie Toro — she’s the state Senate’s first school teacher (as far as folks can remember). Toro teaches kindergarten and is a member of the Chicago Teachers Union, which makes this contest interesting. The CTU is backing one of its organizers, Graciela Guzman. Nipping at their heels is the self-funded Dave Nayak and grassroots candidate Geary Yonker. — House District 31: The Democratic primary ballot says this race is between veteran state Rep. Mary Flowers and educator Michael Crawford. But it’s Crawford's top supporter, Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch, who’s made his voice heard. Welch has funneled more than $1 million to Crawford’s campaign, making it clear he wants Flowers out. Crawford hasn’t done interviews, but Flowers has. Here’s one with NBC 5’s Mary Ann Ahern. — House District 36: This west suburban seat opened up when Democratic state Rep. Kelly Burke announced she wouldn’t seek reelection. Instead, Burke is backing Rick Ryan, an attorney. He faces Sonia Anne Khalil, an administrative services coordinator for the City of Markham. Ryan has the party establishment’s support, but the district has a large Middle Eastern population, which could give Khalil an edge. — Cook County Circuit Court clerk: Incumbent Clerk Iris Martinez faces challenger Mariyana Spryopoulos, a water board commissioner who has the support of Preckwinkle and establishment Dems. Martinez should have the power of incumbency — she’s modernized the office since taking over four years ago and made it easier for people to get information — but she’s also butted heads with Preckwinkle. Now, Martinez describes herself as the underdog, reports ABC 7’s Sarah Schulte. — Illinois Supreme Court: Justice Joy Cunningham faces 1st District Appellate Justice Jesse Reyes in a race that’s focused in a large part on identity politics. Cunningham is Black, and Reyes is Latino. He says it’s time for the state to have a Latino member on the high court. — Cook County Board of Review: The commissioner’s race has become high profile because Cook County Assessor Fritz Kaegi is the main funder behind an effort to defeat longtime Commissioner Larry Rogers Jr. Kaegi has started a political fund focused on Larecia Tucker’s campaign. Kaegi and Tucker have questioned Rogers’ ethics — Rogers once hired his brother who went on to work as a tax-appeals attorney. But Rogers questions Kaegi’s ethics, too. The Board of Review decides appeals of decisions made by Kaegie’s office, so his involvement in the race represents a conflict, says Rogers. WBEZ’s Dan Mihalopoulos has the story. RELATED: Primaries across the country test Trump’s hold on the GOP and show Dems' divide over the Israel-Hamas war, writes POLITICO’s Steven Shepard If you are Michael Crawford, Playbook would like to hear from you. Email skapos@politico.com
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