Saturday, February 24, 2024

Nikki Haley’s not-quite-last stand

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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

Presented by

Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

BIG ANNIVERSARY READ — “The West tried to crush Russia’s economy. Why hasn’t it worked?” by Nahal Toosi, Ari Hawkins, Koen Verhelst, Gabriel Gavin and Kyle Duggan: “Russia has faced a historic slew of penalties from Washington, Brussels and beyond since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. … Yet, two years on, Russia’s economy has rebounded.”

LATE TO THE PARTY — House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON released this statement last night, via NYT’s Annie Karni: “I believe the life of every single child has inestimable dignity and value. That is why I support IVF treatment, which has been a blessing for many moms and dads who have struggled with fertility.” (Johnson remains a co-sponsor of the Life at Conception Act, which has no IVF carve-out.)

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks to a crowd of people at a campaign event.

Nikki Haley's final South Carolina rally was a microcosm of the last month of her sputtering push for the nomination. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

PRIMARY DAY IN SOUTH CAROLINA — Last night in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, a stone’s throw from Charleston, a mix of old school Republicans, former Trump voters and even a few Democrats showed up for NIKKI HALEY’s final rally before her home-state primary today.

It was a microcosm of the last month of Haley’s sputtering push for the nomination. The crowd was lively but not excited. It wasn’t rowdy by any means. And Haley, wearing a campaign cap and American flag sweater, made no promise of a surprise victory.

In the alternate universe Haley’s camp promoted for months before Iowa and New Hampshire, the former governor and U.N. ambassador would be riding a wave of momentum into her home state. Now, with DONALD TRUMP poised for an easy double-digit win today, that dream has been long dead.

Instead, Haley riffed on the long road ahead, the work left to do, the forces trying to “anoint” Trump and the many polls showing her beating President JOE BIDEN in a general election by wider margins than the likely nominee.

As one South Carolina-based reporter put it to us as Haley spoke, she’s asking voters to go from Point A (present day) to Point C (the general), while completely bypassing Point B (the primary).

The Haley supporters who gathered for the event seemed not to mind, and they readily encouraged her to fight on against lengthening odds.

To those suggesting it’s time for Haley to step aside, LOU RENZI — a Trump-then-Biden voter dreading a 2020 rematch, told us, “I think that the people who are saying those things are extremely shortsighted, have no recollection of what's been taking place for the past year or two.”

“It's a democracy, right?” said MARK WILSON. “There's a reason why she should be able to stay in. Let the people decide.”

“I don't believe the polls,” said SARAH DART, a Democrat who decided to skip her party’s own primary to cast a vote for Haley. “The polls said HILLARY CLINTON was going to win. You know, that didn’t happen.”

The 2016 polls, of course, weren’t predicting a 25-point Clinton win, as they are predicting for Trump today. In fact, Haley has used those dismal polls to lower her expectations to the floor as she and her team insist the fight will continue.

Haley’s team has reserved ad time for the March 5 Super Tuesday races, and she is expected to spend at least part of today doing interviews targeting those states. Her campaign manager, BETSY ANKNEY, told reporters Friday that they were “placing our faith in the American people.”

“We are willing to bet that they have a lot more courage than the political class and even the media who line up behind Trump, even though they know what a disaster he is,” she said. “And we're going to make our case until that door closes.”

“Until that door closes” is an interesting phrase to deploy, leaving room for lots of interpretations. If it didn’t close after a third-place Iowa showing and an 11-point New Hampshire loss, will it close after a 25-point South Carolina faceplant? When Trump, likely sometime next month, picks up the necessary delegates to win the nomination? Or only come July when those delegates actually vote in Milwaukee?

Former senior Haley aide ROB GODFREY, who has remained neutral in the primary, told Playbook that people shouldn’t underestimate Haley’s insistence on staying in the race.

She really relishes the fight,” he told us last night. “But the further along we get into it, there start to be questions about what you want to do next and whether a prolonged fight for delegates and a prolonged primary process begins to tarnish your own brand, begins to distract from the effort to expand the House majority and win back the Senate, and ultimately hobbles the nominee in the general election.”

Related reads“Nikki Haley needs to change the South Carolina GOP to win. Good luck,” by Steven Shepard … “Nikki Haley Tries to Hold Back Trump Onslaught in South Carolina,” by WSJ’s John McCormick, Alex Leary and Eliza Collins … “Nikki Haley’s popularity has plummeted among GOP primary voters,” by NBC’s Mark Murray … “Meet The Only Member of Congress Who’s Backing Nikki Haley,” by Ben Jacobs for POLITICO Magazine

TRUMP AT CPAC — Before heading to his election night party in Columbia, Trump appears in National Harbor to headline the Conservative Political Action Conference later today.

There, his campaign says, he’ll be pivoting hard to the general election, contrasting what another four years of Biden would look like versus a second Trump term. They are also promising that today will be the last day he will so much as mention Haley (we’ll see how that goes).

Trump, we’re told, will promise to “throw out Bidenomics and … reinstate MAGA-nomics” and pre-but any future Biden administration executive actions on the southern border, saying “the American public will not forget that Biden and his administration orchestrated this entire invasion.”

The campaign shared some additional excerpts exclusively with Playbook:

  • “With four more years of Biden … ruthless gangs will explode even more into the suburbs, while weaponized law enforcement hunts for conservatives.” 
  • “Together, we can make a quantum leap in the American standard of living. We can seal our borders and repel the intruders. We can bring tranquility back to our streets, patriotism back to our schools, and God back to our public square.”
  • “Their attacks will only harden our resolve to unlock this nation’s full promise and reach its true destiny. They will only motivate us more to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.”

That’s what will be on the teleprompter, anyway. As for what actually comes out of his mouth, well, consider what he said last night at the Black Conservative Foundation gala in Columbia.

"I got indicted a second time and a third time and a fourth time, and a lot of people said that that’s why the Black people like me, because they have been hurt so badly and discriminated against, and they actually viewed me as I’m being discriminated against,” he said.

He added: “My mug shot — we’ve all seen the mug shot, and you know who embraced it more than anybody else? The Black population. You see Black people walking around with my mug shot, you know, they do shirts and they sell them for $19 apiece. It’s pretty amazing — millions by the way." More from Meridith McGraw

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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BUZZY: TRUMP SPOX LOSES COOL — During an on-camera interview yesterday with Rachael, Trump’s national campaign spokeswoman stormed off and refused to answer questions about House Republicans’ impeachment of Joe Biden.

In response to questions about Trump’s business profiting off the Oval Office, KAROLINE LEAVITT called Rachael a “fake news person” with “unhinged bias” against Trump.

“I can see it in your eyes when you're asking me the questions. You are not fair,” she said in the interview at CPAC, which Rachael taped as an ABC News contributing correspondent.

The interview didn’t start out confrontational. The two gabbed about both wearing pink beforehand, and most of the chat focused on Trump’s IVF stance. But when Leavitt was asked about the possibility of House Republicans not impeaching Biden because their top witness has been charged with fabricating his allegations of bribery, Leavitt went on a tangent that Rachael had to fact-check in real time.

Leavitt: “[Biden] has made millions and millions and millions of dollars. Why? Because he has used his family, his brother and his son to profit off of his public service. Then you have a man like Donald Trump, who —”

Rachael: “Who also profited off of government. I mean, how much money did he make when he was president? ... He had MIKE PENCE go way out of his way to like stay at Trump properties .. He wanted to have the G7 at Doral. … If that is not a direct link to trying to profit off the Oval Office, I don't see how you could say this about Joe Biden.”

Leavitt: “Donald Trump is the first president ever to lose money when he was sitting in the Oval Office. … He divested himself.”

Rachael: “He didn’t divest himself.”

After that, Leavitt had enough. We have to wonder how Leavitt, who has been in the top Trump communications job for a couple of months, is going to make it if she can’t keep her cool on such basic questions. Watch the testy exchangeand the full interview

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden will participate in a video conference call with G7 leaders and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY this morning to discuss the U.S. continued support for Ukraine. Tonight, Biden and First Lady JILL BIDEN will welcome governors and their spouses for a black-tie dinner at the White House. VP KAMALA HARRIS and Second Gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will attend.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem delivers remarks during the Conservative Political Action Conference.

During an comments at CPAC yesterday, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem took aim at those who challenged Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

1. VEEPSTAKES HEATS UP: More than a half-dozen Republicans with aspirations to be Trump’s running mate took the stage at CPAC yesterday to lavish praise on the former president, Alex Isenstadt reports: “South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM took aim at those who challenged Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. … Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) repeatedly yoked herself to the former president. … Then there was Florida Rep. BYRON DONALDS, who likened Trump to sports greats like MICHAEL JORDAN, BILL BELICHIK and TOM BRADY.”

Happening today: “The veepstakes were top of mind for attendees gathered at CPAC, not least because the conference’s annual straw poll is centered on who should be Trump’s pick, with the results set to be announced on Saturday afternoon. While the straw poll results are if anything unscientific, the famously poll-obsessed Trump has long taken an interest in the conference’s yearly survey.”

2. WAR IN UKRAINE: As the Ukraine-Russia conflict enters its third year, Europe now sees the U.S. as having lost its resolve in bolstering the fight against VLADIMIR PUTIN, NYT’s Steven Erlanger and David Sanger report: “The Europeans, in contrast, have the will — they just committed another $54 billion to reconstruct the country — but when it comes to repelling Russia’s revived offensive, they do not have the capacity.”

The military forecasts, meanwhile, are dire: “The best Ukraine can hope for in 2024, many Western officials and analysts say, is to simply hold the line,” NYT’s Marc Santora reports from Kyiv: “For now, Ukraine has to move forward without that certainty. … As Ukraine confronts these imbalances, it also faces the once unthinkable prospect of waging a long war without American military backing.”

More anniversary reads: “European Officials Push for U.S. Support of Ukraine,” by WSJ’s James Areddy … “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked a defense boom. It’s likely to outlast the war,” by CNN’s Anna Cooban … “Taiwan’s leadership ‘extremely worried’ US could abandon Ukraine,” by Phelim Kine

3. SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN: With the government shutdown deadline just days away, House Republicans were told by Speaker Johnson on a private conference call last night that the party’s divisions have “ceded leverage to Democrats,” Jennifer Scholtes, Olivia Beavers and Caitlin Emma report: “Johnson stressed to Republicans that he feels optimistic about meeting next week’s deadline for passing the first four bills … But in an acknowledgment of the major disagreements still plaguing spending talks, he said a partial government shutdown is possible.”

Lawmakers are trying to announce a deal by tomorrow night that would include a possible short-term funding extension, buying more time to negotiate but “[t]op funding negotiators in both parties have long acknowledged what the speaker bemoaned Friday night about whipping support for final funding bills.”

4. EYES EMOJI: “New Records Show Supreme Court's Sonia Sotomayor Took Unusual Step Of Traveling With A Medic,” by HuffPo’s Molly Redden: “The revelation comes from newly released U.S. Marshals Service records obtained by the nonpartisan court watchdog Fix the Court, which requested information about security for current and former Supreme Court justices. And it amplifies questions that many only whisper about the long-term fitness of the oldest Democratic-appointed justice on the court.”

 

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5. START THE CLOCK: Manhattan Supreme Court Judge ARTHUR ENGORON finalized his judgment yesterday in Donald Trump’s New York civil fraud case, formally requiring Donald Trump to start payments toward the $454 million in fines and interest he owes the state, AP’s Jake Offenhartz and Michael Sisak report: “The formalized verdict gives Trump a 30-day window to appeal, which he has vowed to do. Within that same time frame, he must deposit ‘sufficient funds’ in a court-controlled account or secure a bond for the total amount.”

6. I TOLD YOU SO: “Former U.S. spies warned in 2020 that the Hunter Biden scandal had Russian fingerprints. They feel vindicated now,” by NBC News’ Ken Dilanian: “No public evidence has emerged pointing to a Russian government role in how the laptop materials were made public. But the former officials say the materials fueled stories consistent with Russian efforts to accuse Biden of corruption that persist to this day — and that therefore they were justified in sounding the alarm.”

7. IMMIGRATION FILES: Following the failure of a bipartisan agreement in Congress earlier this month, Biden informed the nation's governors at a reception last night that he is investigating potential executive options to limit immigration across the southern border, AP’s Zeke Miller and Seung Min Kim report: “‘Over time, our laws and our resources haven’t kept up with our immigration system and it’s broken,’ Biden told the governors, lamenting that ‘petty politics intervened” to kill the deal.’”

Biden’s comments come as progressive groups are preemptively lambasting Biden over those potential executive actions, Myah Ward reports.

8. FROM HIS COLD, DEAD HANDS: “Former NRA chief Wayne LaPierre misspent gun rights group’s money and owes more than $4M, jury finds,” by AP’s Jake Offenhartz: “WAYNE LaPIERRE, misspent millions of dollars of the organization’s money, using the funds to pay for an extravagant lifestyle that included exotic getaways and trips on private planes and superyachts, a New York jury determined Friday. …The jury found LaPierre, 74, must repay almost $4.4 million to the powerful gun rights group that he led for three decades.”

9. CLIMATE CORNER: “SEC expected to scale back landmark climate disclosure rule,” by Declan Harty and Jordan Wolman: “If finalized, the scaled-back rule could represent a major victory for groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Farm Bureau Federation that have questioned the legality of the proposal and the agency’s authority to compel such disclosures.”

 

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 18 funnies

Christopher Weyant - Boston Globe cartoon

Christopher Weyant - Boston Globe

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

“Abraham Lincoln Pardoned Joe Biden’s Great-Great-Grandfather, 160-Year-Old Records Reveal,” by Smithsonian Mag’s Sarah Kuta: “Historian David J. Gerleman discovered the link between the two presidents while reviewing historic documents at the National Archives.”

“Solar storms, ice cores and nuns’ teeth: the new science of history,” by The Guardian’s Jacob Mikanowski: “Advances in fields such as spectrometry and gene sequencing are unleashing torrents of new data about the ancient world — and could offer answers to questions we never even knew to ask.”

“A Family Ranch, Swallowed Up in the Madness of the Border,” by NYT’s Eli Saslow: “Desperate migrants. Cartel violence. It’s all happening in the Chiltons’ backyard.”

“Who Should Regulate Online Speech?” by Devin Cole for The New York Review: “A number of cases before the Supreme Court this term will determine the future of free speech on the Internet.”

“I Went to a Rave With the 46-Year-Old Millionaire Who Claims to Have the Body of a Teenager,” by Matteo Wong for The Atlantic: “Bryan Johnson wants to build a nation of immortals. Would you join?”

“The Redemption of Al Sharpton,” by Esquire’s Mitchell Jackson: “To one America, he has long been a beacon of the civil-rights movement — the man met Dr. King! To another, he was a loudmouth in a tracksuit, surrounded by controversy and shady friends — the man knows Don King, too.”

“The Case Against Children,”  by Elizabeth Barber for Harper’s Magazine: “Among the antinatalists.”

“The Eclipse Is Coming, and Solar Science Will Never Be the Same,” by The Scientific American’s Rebecca Boyle: “The upcoming total solar eclipse and a pair of new sun probes are revolutionizing scientists’ understanding of our closest star.”

PLAYBOOKERS

The Pentagon is tracking another unidentified balloon.

John Fetterman accidentally released Zoom confetti on MSNBC.

Adam Schiff broke his Fox News boycott.

Amie Parnes wrote about The Messenger’s downfall in Vanity Fair.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED yesterday Wall Street Journal-hosted discussion with European leaders at the CUNY Graduate Center in NYC: UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, Almar Latour and Emma Tucker.

California First Partner Siebel Newsom hosted the first spouses of the governors from across the country yesterday for a roundtable discussion on the ongoing youth mental health crisis at The House at 1229. Event partners included the Child Mind Institute and Common Sense Media. SPOTTED: HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, Colorado First Gentleman Marlon Reis, Delaware First Lady Tracey Quillen Carney, Guam First Gentleman Jeff Cook, Hawaii First Lady Jaime Kanani Green, Maryland First Lady Dawn Moore, New York First Gentleman William Hochul, Utah First Lady Abby Cox, Neera Tanden, Mark Ghaly, Harold Koplewicz and Danny Weiss.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Yasmin Radjy, executive director of Swing Left and Vote Forward, and Will Snider, senior operations lead at D-Prize, recently welcomed Roya Radjy Snider.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.) (4-0) … WaPo’s Jacqueline Alemany Bruce Andrews … SKDK’s Karen OlickSabrina Tavernise … White House’s Devin Lynch (41) and Jacqueline Hackett Cliff May … Interior’s Kate Kelly … NYT’s Kate Kelly Mark SalterJuliet K. Choi Julie Adams of the Senate sergeant-at-arms office … McLaurine Pinover … POLITICO’s Connor O’Brien and Mark Matthews Christina CameronAbram Olmstead … former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Kelly Craft Jacqueline Hackett … former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) … Paula Zahn … former Rep. Chris Chocola (R-Ind.) … Andrew Giacini … former acting Massachusetts Gov. Jane Swift Josh Gardner Karen Persichilli Keogh of New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office … Emily Feldman … Amazon’s Lindsay HamiltonBlake Waggoner … BGR Group’s Chelsea Mincheff Aidan Lizza Allison BrancaRebecca Bernbach Graves … Meta’s Kevin Lewis

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

ABC “This Week”: Jake Sullivan … Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) … Doug Lute. Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Rachael Bade and Asma Khalid.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Jake Sullivan … California Gov. Gavin Newsom … Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.). Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, Lanhee Chen, Stephanie Cutter and Chuck Todd.

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”:  Asa Hutchinson … Oklahoma state Rep. Mauree Turner … Mini Timmaraju.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Jake Sullivan … Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) … Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt … Colorado Gov. Jared Polis. Panel: Susan Page, Juan Williams, Tiffany Smiley and Josh Holmes.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu … Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) … Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Penn.) … Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) … Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova … Fiona Hill.

CNN “State of the Union”: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer … Texas Gov. Greg Abbott … Jake Sullivan. Panel: Asa Hutchinson, Adrienne Elrod, Kristen Soltis Anderson and Ashley Allison.

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

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