Wednesday, August 16, 2023

😑Don’t Look Now, But Earnings Season is Killing It

Good morning. With a slight decline in the markets over the past few weeks, one trend is getting...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. With a slight decline in the markets over the past few weeks, one trend is getting overlooked: Corporate America's performance. So far, about 80 percent of S&P 500 companies now reporting have beaten earnings estimates. That's a 2.5 year high.

Meanwhile, with stocks pulling back, the underperformance relative to that positive earnings surprise is at its largest gap in years. That's a hint that the latest market drop may not have much further to go.

As long as corporate earnings can continue to grow, along with a strong labor market and relatively lower inflation, markets could be set up for strong conditions for a year-end rally. Over time, following earnings leads to better investment success than following prices.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,946.39 -1.02%
S&P 4,437.86 -1.16%
NASDAQ 13,631.05 -1.14%
*As of market close
Markets dropped on Tuesday, reversing Monday's gain.
Oil dropped 1.8 percent, closing at $81.01 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.5 percent, last going for $1,934 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with bitcoin at $29,164 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
The Market Just Proved This Company Is Substantially Undervalued
Value investors can have a tough time when it comes to investing. They can recognize that a company is trading at a discount to its value. But short of taking it private, it's hard to get that value unlocked. It takes time and patience.

Recently, a proposed merger agreement led to a rejection by the company that was set to be taken private at a premium to where its shares traded. Typically, a rejection would mean shares would trend lower.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Heartland Express (HTLD)
Michael Gerdin, CEO at Heartland Express (HTLD), recently bought 5,841 shares. The buy increased his position by less than 1 percent, and came to a total cost of $89,367. Gerdin was also an active buyer back in May, and six other buys in the past 12 months.

This marks the first insider activity since May, when a major owner bought 1,792 shares. There have been no insider sales at the company over the past year.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
Office and retail-oriented real estate investment trust Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) has lost about one quarter of its value over the past year. One trader sees shares trending even lower in the coming months.

That's based on the October $15 puts. With 65 days until expiration, 4,003 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 145, for a 28-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.25 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Subsidies, Protectionism on the Rise

The world's largest economies are engaging in more subsides and protectionism for favored industries. That has reduced global trade, and stands to represent a shift away from decades of globalism. That will likely hurt all nations as total trade declines, but smaller nations are more likely to suffer the impact of getting left behind more.
UBS Agrees to $1.4 Billion Settlement for MBS Fraud

Banking giant UBS (UBS) has agreed to a settlement over misconduct related to the bank's offer and sale of mortgage-backed securities. This is the final legacy lawsuit from the housing bubble era, as it deals with MBS' sold between 2006 and 2007. The Justice Department reports that $36 billion in settlement fees have been recovered.
Hawaiian Electric Stock Sinks Amid Wildfires

Electric utility Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) lose over a third of its value on Monday, following devastating wildfires that swept through Hawaii in the previous few days. There have been some allegations that the utility failed to cut off power to downed power lines in a timely manner, which may have exacerbated the fires.
Biden Urges Deal Between Automakers and Union to Avoid Strike

The nation's three largest automakers are in talks with the United Auto Workers (UAW) union. The union is demanding raises of 40 percent or more and a reversal of past concessions from the union. The current contract is expected to expire on September 14.
Health Data Stolen in Hack that Targeted IBM

Millions of Americans have had their medical information stolen by hackers, who utilized a vulnerability in the MOVEit file transfer software created by IBM (IBM). A healthcare agency in Colorado reports that the hack impacted 4.1 million individuals. The data accessed may include name, date of birth, and medical claims information.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
DHI 2.92%
PARA 2.612%
AMGN 1.791%
LEN 1.784%
ZBRA 1.751%
BOTTOM
DFS 10.57%
PYPL 5.879%
TRIP 5.807%
AES 5.415%
FSLR 5.354%

Quote of the Day
A 'trim' and perhaps a 'haircut' is [likely] what has thus far taken place. Such a retracement we feel is more than likely healthy, rather than marking the beginning of an end to the bull market that emerged from last year's oversold market conditions.
- John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist, on the recent market selloff, which looks like a move off of heavily overbought conditions, rather than the start of a major bear market.

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