| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | After a 2020 presidential election rocked by the pandemic, the 2022 midterms “represented a return to normal election operations.” That’s according to a report released last week from the Election Assistance Commission, the federal agency that serves as a hub for election information and standards. It’s the latest installment of the agency’s biennial analysis following a federal election, and it is often considered the most comprehensive source for state-by-state data that tells us how elections are run, as well as who voted and how they did it. Here’s a look at some highlights: — Who’s voting: More than 203 million people were active registered voters in 2022. That’s around 85 percent of eligible voters in the country, and a slight uptick from the 2018 midterms. The majority of states reported having a higher active registration rate in 2022 compared to 2018, as well. But getting more people registered doesn’t necessarily mean they’re all voting. Turnout among all Americans eligible to vote dropped around 5 percentage points compared to 2018. Last year, more than 112 million ballots were cast and counted in the 2022 general election, representing a turnout of around 47 percent. California, Indiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Dakota and Tennessee had the largest drop offs, with double-digit dips in turnout between the 2018 and 2022 elections. Only nine states saw increased turnouts compared to 2018: Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Dakota and Vermont. That’s a notable change from the 2018 report, when most states saw higher levels of turnout that year compared to the previous midterm election. — How they’re voting: In-person voting on Election Day rebounded after a pandemic-induced drop in 2020. But a majority of voters are still using other methods of voting, showing that there is significant staying power to the pandemic-era shift. Just under half of voters — 49 percent — cast their ballots on Election Day, up from around 30 percent in the 2020 election. Voting by mail was the second most popular option, with close to one-third of voters doing so. Around 20 percent voted early in-person. In-person voting on Election Day still didn’t hit 2018 rates, when 58 percent of voters cast their ballots that way. Votes by mail saw a 6 percentage point increase from 2018, and early in-person voting remained about the same. The sticking power of alternative voting methods is sure to play a role in next year’s elections. Previous data shows that Democrats are more likely to vote early compared to Republicans, as top Republicans like former President Donald Trump vilified it. Heading into 2024, the RNC recently launched a campaign, called “Bank Your Vote,” that will emphasize in-person early voting, absentee voting and ballot harvesting. “If we learned one thing last election cycle, … it’s that we need to turn Election Day into election month,” NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said last month. It’s Wednesday. Welcome back to reality. What’s going on out there? Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Mississippi primary: 34 Days until the RI-01 and UT-02 special election primaries: 62 Days until the Louisiana primary: 101 Days until the 2023 election: 125 Days until the Republican National Convention: 376 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 411 Days until the 2024 election: 489
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| | 2024 WATCH — Democrat Hill Harper is poised to jump into the race for Michigan Senate, our Holly Otterbein reports. Harper, who hasn’t run for office before, is expected to run to the left of Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who Democratic leaders hoped would have cleared the field. A number of other Democrats have already jumped into the race. … Former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert filed to run for governor of Washington to succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee. “If Reichert follows through and runs for the open seat, he would instantly become the most prominent Republican in a field that is still taking shape, more than a year before the primary election,” writes The Seattle Times’ David Gutman. … Republican Darren Bailey, who unsuccessfully ran for governor of Illinois last year, filed for IL-12 against Republican Rep. Mike Bost. Read more from our Shia Kapos. … Dan Cox, the Maryland Republican who lost last year’s gubernatorial election, appeared to file for the open MD-06 seat that’s being vacated by Democratic Rep. David Trone as he runs for Senate. But Cox told Maryland Matters’ Josh Kurtz that it wasn’t him and he’s still making a decision. … Indiana Republican John Rust filed to run for the state’s open Senate seat. Breitbart’s Nick Gilbertson reported last month that Rust, whose family owns one of the country’s top-producing egg farms, is “worth millions and has been telling those close to him he is planning to self-fund the campaign.” Republican Rep. Jim Banks is seen as the frontrunner in the race. … Virginia Republican Hung Cao, whose name has been floated as a challenger to Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, updated his principal campaign committee’s paperwork to change the office sought to the Senate. Cao lost to incumbent Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton last year in VA-10. … Arizona Democrat Kirsten Engel, who’s running for AZ-06 against Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, “is lined up for a rematch in the district, as Democrat Jack O’Donnell quietly bowed out of the 6th Congressional District primary race … without comment,” the Arizona Republic’s Ryan Randazzo writes. … New Jersey Democrat Joe Signorello, a small-town mayor, is planning on dropping his Senate bid against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez to instead run for NJ-07 against Republican Rep. Tom Kean, the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein reports. Signorello filed for NJ-07 on Monday. … Former Democratic Michigan state Sen. Curtis Hertel Jr. is expected to announce a run for MI-07, WLNS’ Tim Skubick reports. Hertel, a director of legislative affairs in Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s office, announced his resignation on Friday. Last month, Slotkin, who’s vacating the district for her Senate run, touted Hertel as a potential successor. … Republican Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose teased a Senate bid on Tuesday, posting a picture of his FEC committee filing papers with a date of July 15. REDISTRICTING REDUX — The U.S. Supreme Court sent Ohio’s redistricting case back to the state’s high court “for further consideration in light of Moore v. Harper.” The state Supreme Court has repeatedly struck down GOP maps in Ohio as illegal gerrymanders, and Ohio Republicans have asked the nation’s top court to intervene, citing the “independent state legislature” theory. But last week, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected that theory, which ensured that state Supreme Courts will remain ultimate arbiters of partisan gerrymandering and can rein in legislatures. WHO’S WHO — Twenty-two Democrats are in the race for the special election in deep-blue RI-01. Four Republicans and nine independents are also in the race. Candidates have until July 14 to submit 500 signatures, and the primary election is on Sept. 5. SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — “Legislative leaders are at odds with Republican Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson over the controversy surrounding Utah’s 2nd Congressional District special election,” writes the Salt Lake Tribune’s Bryan Schott. Celeste Maloy, who the Utah Republican Party picked as its nominee last month, was not a registered Republican voter when she filed as a candidate, and “lawmakers suggested Monday that Henderson erred by allowing Maloy on the ballot. … It may take the courts to ultimately decide whether Maloy’s status as a voter should have disqualified her from the ballot.” Other Republican candidates have until today to submit 7,000 signatures to make it on the ballot. PARTY PROBLEMS — Mississippi Democratic Party Chair Tyree Irving announced his resignation over the weekend “as dozens of the state party’s executive committee members appeared poised to remove him from his seat in a July 6 emergency meeting,” writes Mississippi Today’s Adam Ganucheau. “Irving’s resignation, effective July 22 but announced on Saturday, comes less than a week after Mississippi Today published emails that some party officials feared would jeopardize a $250,000 donation from the national party.” Brandon Presley, the only Democratic gubernatorial candidate, attempted to distance himself from the party drama.
| | THE GREAT DEBATES — “The GOP primary debate seemed originally like it could result in political fireworks. But with less than two months to go, it is veering toward something far less crowded and consequential,” POLITICO’s Natalie Allison and Alex Isenstadt write. “A stage that was once expected to be as sprawling as it was in the 2016 GOP primary could end up a slimmed-down affair, with the longshots not qualifying and the frontrunner following through on his threats to boycott.” … RELATED: “The RNC’s debate plans have a major, largely unnoticed problem,” by POLITICO’s Steve Shepard. FAULT LINES — Steve Cortes, a spokesperson for Never Back Down, the super PAC supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid, acknowledged over the weekend that “his campaign is facing an ‘uphill battle’ and is trailing badly in the key nominating states,” our Meridith McGraw writes. “The remarks amounted to a remarkably blunt admission of vulnerability from within the ranks of a leading presidential operation, contrasting with the projection of confidence that other DeSantis aides often adopt.” PAC ATTACK — American Values 2024, the super PAC boosting Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential bid, said it raised over $10 million, The New York Times’ Rebecca Davis O’Brien reports. The contributions come from “a ‘right down the middle’ mix of Republicans and Democrats,” according to Tony Lyons, the group’s co-chair.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | | Q2 TABS — Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) raised over $8.1 million in Q2 for his Senate bid, our Chris Cadelago scoops. He broke Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-Ga.) fundraising record of $7.2 million in the second quarter of the off-cycle in 2021. Schiff ended the quarter with $29.5 million on hand. … There are 10 days until Q2 reports are due to the FEC. But why wait ’till then? Send them over today. SWING STRESS — “The House’s focus on the far-right’s demands over the past month has irritated Republicans who represent swing districts or are worried that an extreme legislative agenda will push voters away and hand the House majority to Democrats in 2024,” writes The Washington Post’s Marianna Sotomayor and Leigh Ann Caldwell. “Freshman lawmakers in particular have begun to put leadership on notice, asking in a recent meeting that the National Republican Congressional Committee not use any money freshmen raised on their far-right colleagues’ campaigns, according to two people familiar with the request.”
| | SYSTEM UPDATE — Election officials are “not-so-quietly freaking out” that long-awaited certification guidelines for voting machines that are rolling out in November will be weaponized against them, our Zach Montellaro writes. “On guard against falling public trust in elections, officials worry every word in their new standards will be scrutinized by a new, not always kind, audience.” OPENING UP — Supporters of an initiative to open Idaho’s primaries can start collecting petition signatures, the Idaho secretary of state’s office said last week. Supporters are hoping to put it on the November 2024 ballot. Should voters approve the measure, it would create a top four primary in which the top four vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election, when voters then use ranked choice voting to select their preferred candidates. The coalition supporting the potential measure said on Monday that they would hold off on the signature gathering until they receive a ruling in a challenge over the ballot titles assigned to the initiative. Read more from the Idaho Capital Sun’s Clark Corbin.
| | LA GOV — Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry is leading the crowded primary for Louisiana governor, according to a poll from Republican firm WPA Intelligence conducted for Protect Louisiana’s Children, a super PAC supporting Landry. The AG earns 35 percent of support, followed by Democrat Shawn Wilson, who has 17 percent. Six other candidates poll in the single-digits or less than 1 percent. Reminder: The top two vote-getters, no matter the party affiliation, proceed to the general election later this year. (500 likely primary voters, June 15-17, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).
| | | — Andrew Schreyer is now interim chief operations officer for the Biden-Harris campaign. He previously was deputy assistant administrator for management at the EPA. — Brooke Goren will be deputy communications director for the Biden-Harris reelection campaign, The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso reports. She most recently was deputy communications director at the DNC. — Carlos Cardona is now campaign manager for Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson. He previously was Williamson’s New Hampshire state director. — Erich Haslehurst is campaign manager for Democratic state Sen. Sandra Cano’s campaign for RI-01. He most recently managed Democratic Rhode Island Secretary of State Gregg Amore’s campaign. Former Newport Mayor Jamie Bova is field director for Cano’s campaign. The rest of Cano’s team includes Sydney Keen, who is deputy campaign manager; Michael Beauregard is field and digital strategy consultant; Wilder Arboleda is treasurer; Checkmate Consulting Group is the general media consultant; and Change Research is the pollster. — José Morales is senior campaign director for democracy at The Hub Project. He most recently was chief of staff for Stacey Abrams’ Georgia gubernatorial campaign. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I am willing to break bread with anybody, but I don’t think she’s interested in breaking bread with me because I didn’t like her show.” (GOP presidential candidate and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to the New York Post on being “willing to meet Snooki and settle their differences.”) | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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