News : Inside Belarus’ summer camp for Prigozhin’s serial killers

Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Inside Belarus’ summer camp for Prigozhin’s serial killers

Jul 05, 2023

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GOOD MORNING and welcome to Global Insider. I’m Zoya Sheftalovich, POLITICO’s Ukrainian-Australian editor of the Brussels and London Playbooks. I recently spoke with a friend who left Russia in 1992, in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse. “I left thanks to Yeltsin, I never regretted it thanks to Putin,” she said. And on that note …

WAGNER WATCH

WHERE ARE PRIGOZHIN’S MERCENARIES NOW? There’s been much speculation about the whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner Group mercenary army who led an armed insurrection on Moscow last month and marched his men to within 200 kilometers of the Russian capital, since he practically dropped off the face of the Earth on June 27.

Belarus bound: Under a deal brokered by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin and his men were given the option of either disarming, signing contracts with the Russian defense ministry, or going into exile in Belarus. And it looks like some Wagnerites really are heading to the Eastern European country.

Summer camp for serial killers: A new camp to house thousands of troops is being built outside the Belarusian town of Asipovichy, according to the Belarus opposition and a pro-Russia military blog. "We have pictures inside a camp which is being built — which is practically finished — with some 300 tents accommodating up to 60 persons each," Uladzimir Astapenka, the head of the Mission for Democratic Belarus in Brussels, told me on Tuesday. "We also have information that there were orders placed for 8,000 mattresses. And this gives us reason to believe that there are preparations to accommodate up to 8,000 persons, whomever they could be. Our guess is it’s for Wagner."

That’s a pretty good guess: Lukashenko said Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus last week, though in a voice message released this Monday — the first sign of life from Prigozhin in a week — the Wagner leader didn't say where he was currently located.

In the zone: Prigozhin’s voice memo was posted by Grey Zone, a Telegram channel that is sympathetic to his cause and appears to have an in with the warlord. Grey Zone then posted photos of what it said was one of three Wagner bases being built near Asipovichy, noting that "some of the Wagner Group's units have already started training activities'' in Belarus. See the pics here.

What now? "There are multiple options for Prigozhin," Astapenka said. "Stay in Belarus, go back to Ukraine, go back to Moscow, go to Africa — or maybe go to Vilnius for the NATO summit. That’s considered a threat for the NATO leaders. Because Vilnius is 40 kilometers from the border with Belarus."

Reminder: Leaders of NATO countries, including U.S. President Joe Biden, are set to gather in the Lithuanian capital for a two-day summit next Tuesday and Wednesday, to sign off on new regional military plans and discuss boosting defenses. Asipovichy is less than four hours' drive from Vilnius.

Would Prigozhin do it? "Nobody knows what to expect from those guys," Astapenka said of Wagner. "They started a mutiny in Russia and they made it practically to Moscow — if there are 10,000 guys with weapons, who would stop them at the border between Belarus and Lithuania?"

What Lithuania says: President Gitanas Nausėda spoke to POLITICO's Lili Bayer and Jacopo Barigazzi on the sidelines of last week's EU leaders' summit about the potential for Lukashenko's regime to further weaponize migration, as it did in 2021, when it lured people from the Middle East and elsewhere to Belarus only to send them to the country’s border with the EU. "One day, those illegal migrants could be Wagner fighters," Nausėda said. Lithuania is now seeking a permanent NATO presence on its territory, with Germany signaling it could base 4,000 soldiers there.

What NATO says: The alliance says it sees no imminent threat from Belarus — for now. “We’re confident we know what’s going on, and right now we see no changes,” Major General Matthew Van Wagenen, deputy chief of staff at NATO's Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, told reporters at a briefing in Brussels on Monday. “If we needed to change posture, we could do it rapidly."

So what’s Wagner doing in Belarus? Teaching Lukashenko’s forces how to fight, according to the leader himself. “Lukashenko is afraid someone might overthrow him, and Wagner could be another pillar to keep him in power,” Astapenka said.

Background: Russian President Vladimir Putin helped Lukashenko see off massive protests following a fraudulent presidential election in 2020, which was widely believed to have been won by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, now the leader of Belarus’ democratic government in exile. In return, Lukashenko helped the Kremlin launch its war on Ukraine last year and agreed to host Russian nukes in Belarus.

NOW READ THIS: In an open letter in POLITICO Magazine this morning, 46 prominent foreign policy experts declare NATO needs to provide Kyiv with a pathway to membership at next week’s summit. “Leaving Ukraine in a gray zone of ambiguity invites Russian aggression,” they warn. Among those who signed the letter: former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker, political scientist Francis Fukuyama, former U.S. Congressman Tom Malinowski, former Director for European Affairs at the U.S. National Security Council Alexander Vindman, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, and many others.

LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.

CHINA CORNER

CHIP FOR TAT: After the Netherlands, working with the U.S., announced new restrictions on exports of advanced microchip machines to China last Friday, Beijing on Monday hit back, threatening to ban exports of two types of critical raw materials to unfriendly countries on national security grounds.

Hitting ’em where it hurts: The two minerals on Beijing’s hit list — gallium and germanium — are crucial for semiconductors, 5G base stations and solar panels, as my colleagues Stuart Lau, Federica Di Sario and Pieter Haeck report. Both metals are considered “critical” and “strategic” by EU standards, meaning they rely on a single source and are important to EU industries, as well as European defense needs.

Beijing didn’t stop there. On Tuesday, China canceled a planned visit to Beijing by the EU’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell — with less than a week’s notice.

MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRALIA … the opposition wants Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to cancel his trip to China, after Hong Kong police placed a bounty on eight pro-democracy activists, among them two based in Australia. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee vowed to pursue the activists, who objected to the city’s sweeping national security law, “for life.”

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

EU UPS THE PRIVACY ANTE: The European Commission on Tuesday presented a new law that would require EU privacy regulators to share more information in major privacy cases and more often settle such cases out of court — in an effort to speed up how its General Data Protection Regulation is enforced. More here from Clothilde Goujard.

WELCOME TO IRAN — SORRY, FRANCE: In the wake of violent riots over a police killing, French President Emmanuel Macron argued his government should have been able to cut social media access, my colleagues Laura Kayali and Elisa Bertholomey report. The government needs to consider proposals so that “when things get out of hand,” France is “in a position to regulate or cut them off,” Macron said at a gathering at the Elysée Palace with some 250 mayors of cities targeted during the riots. Today, the French government tried to downplay Macron's remarks.

EVAN GERSHKOVICH UPDATE: The Kremlin on Tuesday hinted at a possible prisoner exchange for jailed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. It came after U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy visited Gershkovich in prison on Monday, reporting he is “in good health and remains strong.”

NO PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Israel overnight carried out air strikes on Gaza in response to rocket fire from Palestinian militants, as Israeli forces withdrew from Jenin in the occupied West Bank. It followed a major Israeli operation inside the Jenin refugee camp, which killed 12 Palestinians and an Israeli soldier. On Tuesday afternoon, seven people were injured on a busy street in Tel Aviv after an attacker, who police said was Palestinian, rammed his car into pedestrians and stabbed people. The FT explores why the Jenin raid marks an escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

TURNING UP THE HEAT: July 3 was the hottest day ever recorded globally, according to the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, with the average global temperature topping 17°C/62.6°F. It’s the first time in the 44 years of this dataset that the temperature surpassed 17°C. Associated Press has the details.

GLOBETROTTERS

NATO SPECULATION: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will remain in post for another year, he confirmed Tuesday, agreeing to stay on until October 1, 2024.

The latest rumor on who will eventually replace him … is European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a former German defense minister. According to the U.K.’s Daily Telegraph, von der Leyen is Biden’s current top pick. But von der Leyen may want another five-year term as the head of the European Commission instead, if her center-right group does well in the EU parliamentary election next year (more on the jostling in Brussels here by Lili Bayer, and on the NATO selection process here).

SALL OVER: Senegal’s President Macky Sall announced he won’t run for reelection next year, in the wake of deadly opposition protests last month. Sall’s critics argued another term would have been illegal, and demonstrated democratic backsliding in Senegal.

POLITICO’S POWER 40: Politics is home to planet-sized egos, big bust-ups and plenty of noise. But where does the real power lie? It’s a question we put to policy and politics reporters in Brussels, London and Paris over the past few months. Today, published the inaugural POLITICO Power 40 list for Westminster, with Brussels and Paris to be released later in the week here and here.

MOVES

Christian Borggreen, formerly at tech industry group CCIA, is now head of EMEA public policy at Akamai Technologies.

Michael Macko, a former corporate counsel for Amazon, will be the first head of enforcement for the California Privacy Protection Agency.

BRAIN FOOD

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO PRIGOZHIN’S TROLL FACTORIES? Le Monde has an in-depth read (in French) on the impact of Prigozhin’s failed coup on Russia’s disinformation operations.

VIETNAM BANS ‘BARBIE’ MOVIE: What does the “Barbie” movie have to do with the South China Sea dispute? The Washington Post has an explainer.

Thanks to my editor Sanya Khetani-Shah and producer Sophie Gardner.

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