Sunday, June 11, 2023

New polls: Trump primary bump, but trouble ahead

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Jun 11, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

Presented by

UPS

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

SUCCESSION, THE REBOOT — This morning’s must-read profile comes from WSJ’s Gregory Zuckerman: “George Soros Hands Control to His 37-Year-Old Son: ‘I’m More Political’”

Meet ALEX SOROS. He is not his father’s eldest son. (He has three older half-siblings, including 52-year-old JONATHAN, who was long viewed as the heir apparent.) He’s not a master of the finance universe. (Alex has a Ph.D. in history from Berkeley, and is an avid watcher of NFL RedZone.) But he is his father’s chosen successor: GEORGE SOROS is handing him the reins of his sprawling Open Society Foundation.

What to expect: “Alex is more focused on domestic politics than his father, he said. Alex is helping Democrats appeal to Latino voters and improve turnout among Black voters. He has urged Democratic politicians to better hone their message, broadening the party’s appeal.

“‘Our side has to be better about being more patriotic and inclusive,’ he said. ‘Just because someone votes [DONALD] TRUMP doesn’t mean they’re lost or racist.’”

Former President Donald Trump gestures after speaking during the North Carolina Republican Party Convention in Greensboro, N.C., Saturday, June 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

“I’ll never leave” the race, even if jailed, Donald Trump told Alex Isenstadt. | Chuck Burton/AP Photo

THE DONALD WENT DOWN TO GEORGIA — Less than 48 hours after news broke that he’d been indicted on 37 counts, Trump was on the road for a campaign event, traveling to Georgia to rally supporters at the state’s GOP convention.

Our colleague Alex Isenstadt was one of two reporters invited along for the trip, and broke some news as the former president vowed not to step aside from the 2024 race — even if convicted.

“I’ll never leave,” Trump told Alex. “Look, if I would have left, I would have left prior to the original race in 2016.” (Worth noting: It’s exceedingly unlikely that this trial will be complete before November 2024.)

Trump — who lamented that “now, I get indicted every two months” — “predicted he would not be convicted and said he did not anticipate taking a plea deal, though he left open the possibility of doing so ‘where they pay me some damages,’” Alex writes.

Speaking at the GOP convention in Georgia …

POLITICO: “In his first public remarks since a magistrate judge unsealed the damning case against him, Trump made clear that his best — and perhaps primary — defense against the charges will be waged in arenas before friendly audiences rather than in the courtroom.

“The former president sought to galvanize his supporters to view the entire American justice system as corrupt, weaponized to target conservatives and deployed to prevent him from winning the 2024 election. … ‘These people don’t stop and they’re bad and we have to get rid of them,’ Trump said to an audience assembled by the Georgia Republican Party. ‘These criminals cannot be rewarded. They must be defeated.’”

NYT: “‘This is the final battle,’ Mr. Trump said in the speech to several thousand activists, delegates and members of the media who gathered in Columbus, Ga., at a brick building that was once an ironworks that manufactured mortars, guns and cannons for the Confederate Army in the Civil War.

“Mr. Trump spoke about the threats to the nation. But his escalating language also showed something more fundamental was in increasing jeopardy: his own freedom.”

HOW IT’S LANDING …

— New ABC News/Ipsos poll: “Pluralities of Americans support second Trump indictment, say charges are politically motivated,” by ABC’s Brittany Shepherd: “Nearly half — 48% — of Americans think Trump should have been charged in this case, whereas 35% think he should not have been and 17% saying they do not know.”

— New CBS News poll: “After Trump indictment, most see security risk, but Republicans see politics,” by CBS’ Anthony Salvanto, Kabir Khanna, Fred Backus and Jennifer De Pinto: Only 7% of GOP primary voters say the indictment makes them think less of Trump, as he’s crushing Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS nationally, 61% to 23%.

— Former AG BILL BARR on “Fox News Sunday” this morning: “I was shocked by the degree of sensitivity of these documents and how many there were, frankly. … If even half of it is true, then he’s toast. I mean, it’s a very detailed indictment, and it’s very, very damning. And this idea of presenting Trump as a victim here, a victim of a witch hunt, is ridiculous.”

Related reads …

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HARRIS’ CALVARY — EMILY’s List, one of the nation’s most powerful political groups tasked with helping female candidates, is readying a massive investment to improve VP KAMALA HARRIS’ public standing.

Multiple sources told Eugene the PAC is planning to spend “tens of millions of dollars” to defend and support the VP during the 2024 election.

Such an investment in support of a sitting VP is politically unprecedented. And it reflects both (1) the lack of broader efforts that have been made to date to help bolster Harris amid persistently low approval ratings, and (2) the growing recognition that Harris may play an unusually substantial role in what is sure to be a tough election.

As one senior Republican strategist put it: “She is a boogeyman that Republicans can [and will] use when it comes to pushing their message. A President Harris would be even worse than a President [JOE] BIDEN because she campaigned as a progressive fighter and had to moderate herself when she became Biden’s running mate.”

EMILY’s List President LAPHONZA BUTLER said the organization’s efforts aim to “remind” voters of Harris’ early days on the national stage, when she electrified enough of the party as a freshman senator to have the juice to run for president.

“We’re going to tell the story about who she is, what she’s done, support her at every turn, and really push back against the massive misinformation and disinformation that’s been directed towards her,” Butler said.

At this point, the final dollar amount is not set in stone. When asked where the money will be focused, Butler said she would not “take anything off the table.”

SUNDAY BEST …

— Trump lawyer ALINA HABBA on whether he would take a plea deal, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I could never imagine. I know I would never advise that, especially when he’s not done anything wrong. You take a plea deal to make something go away. That’s an admission of guilt. He would never admit guilt.”

— Miami Mayor FRANCIS SUAREZ on whether he’s running for president, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I’m going to be making … a big speech in the Reagan Library, and I think it’s one that America should tune into. … I’ve been to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada. And I can tell you that when I take this message to people, they want to hear more. So if I decide to run next week, hopefully I’ll make the debate stage on Aug. 23. And be able to continue to be part of this conversation to bring in young voters, suburban women, to bring in people from cities into the Republican Party.”

— Rep. DAN GOLDMAN (D-N.Y.) on the Biden documents investigation, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “It’s very important that the special counsel do a thorough investigation to determine whether President Biden willfully concealed classified information and knew that he was doing it. And that’s the critical distinction here between Mr. Trump and former Vice President Pence, President Biden, Secretary Clinton, is that there was no evidence that they willfully concealed material that was national defense information and that they attempted to obstruct the efforts … to retrieve that information.”

 

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TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

BIDEN’S SUNDAY — The Bidens will host a reception for the Ford’s Theater Gala at 3:45 p.m. in the Blue Room.

HARRIS’ SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 10: Singer Betty Who performs on the South Lawn of the White House on June 10, 2023 in Washington, DC. Thousands of people came to the white house to celebrate pride month after First lady Jill Biden and First lady Jill Biden spoke to the crowd. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

Betty Who performs at the White House Pride celebration yesterday on the South Lawn, where the Bidens also spoke. | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. DeSANTIS NABS HIS FIRST GOVERNOR: “DeSantis reaches out to Oklahoma voters in Tulsa visit; gets Gov. Stitt’s endorsement,” by The Oklahoman’s Dale Denwalt in Tulsa: “Touting his refusal of mask mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic and the decision to send 100 Oklahoma Army National Guard troops to the Mexican border, [Oklahoma Gov. KEVIN] STITT called DeSantis the ‘point of the spear’ as a conservative leader.”

2. THE PLOT TO OVERTURN THE ELECTION: “He devised a fringe legal theory to try to keep Trump in power. Now he’s on the verge of being disbarred,” by Kyle Cheney: JOHN EASTMAN “is fighting to save his California bar license from authorities who say he repeatedly breached professional ethics — and possibly the law — in his bid to keep a defeated Trump in power. And those proceedings, while not as prominent as the Jan. 6 select committee or as potentially punitive as a criminal prosecution, are slated to elicit some of the most revealing and comprehensive testimony from figures who aided Trump’s effort to derail the transfer of power.”

Notable names on the witness list: KURT OLSEN, PETER NAVARRO, GREG JACOB, JOHN YOO, Michigan Secretary of State JOCELYN BENSON, KURT HILBERT, LINDA KERNS and more.

3. IF DEMOCRATS CAN DREAM: “Elvis Presley’s cousin lifts Democrats’ hope of ‘sleeper’ win in Mississippi governor’s race,” by AP’s Emily Wagster Pettus and Sara Burnett in Grenada, Miss.: “They’re pinning hopes in November on a candidate with a legendary last name who has used his own compelling story to highlight the economic plight of working families in a state that has long been one of the poorest in America. … While campaigning, BRANDON PRESLEY talks frequently about government corruption, focusing on a multimillion-dollar welfare scandal that developed when [TATE] REEVES was lieutenant governor.”

4. ENJOYING THE MOMENT: “Facing threats to his speakership, McCarthy takes a ‘YOLO’ approach,” by NBC’s Scott Wong: “Since seizing the coveted speaker’s gavel after 15 grueling rounds of voting, [KEVIN] McCARTHY has embraced the role of happy warrior, frequently stopping to ask tourists if they want to snap a selfie or photo with him and sparring with reporters in the Capitol's marble halls on a daily basis. Facing fresh threats of being ousted from the right, McCarthy has filled up his calendar and capitalized on every moment as speaker as the Washington establishment openly speculates how long he can hang on.”

 

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5. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: “Colin Allred Wants to Be Beto O’Rourke — Without the Losing,” by The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey: “[T]o hear [Sen. TED] CRUZ’s newest challenger tell it, his task at hand in the 2024 election isn’t to fundamentally reshape Texas. It’s far simpler: fire Cruz. … [Rep. COLIN] ALLRED previewed all the themes his challenge will feature: Cruz’s objection to the 2020 election outcome after a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, his opposition to legislation to prevent a default on the debt and to fund high-tech manufacturing, his coziness with far-right culture warriors, his zeal for the conservative media spotlight, and, yes, Cancun. A whole lot of Cancun.”

6. INSIDE THE LATEST MIGRANT FLIGHTS: “Migrants say Florida contractors pushed to get them to board planes to California,” by the L.A. Times’ Jack Herrera in El Paso, Texas: “Over two days, the contractors [hired by DeSantis] managed to recruit 16 migrants for a flight June 2 and 20 for a flight June 5 — whom they drove two hours west to a small airport in New Mexico for the trips to Sacramento.”

7. PULL UP A CHAIR: “Meet Josh McKoon, the new Georgia GOP chair,” by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein in Columbus: “Former state Sen. JOSH McKOON won a three-way race on Saturday to lead the state GOP with a promise to unify Republicans … McKoon forged a coalition that included hardline conservatives and more mainstream party figures.”

8. DEEP DIVE: “The Failed Affirmative Action Campaign That Shook Democrats,” by NYT’s Michael Powell and Ilana Marcus: “The 2020 campaign to restore race-conscious affirmative action in California was close to gospel within the Democratic Party. … The breadth of that rejection shook supporters. … The results exposed a gulf between the party establishment and its voters. … Democrats have yearned for a demographic deliverance, arguing a multiracial coalition would inevitably elevate their progressive policies. Proposition 16 points to a more uncertain reality.”

9. THE OTHER BIG POLITICAL STORY IN MIAMI: “FBI investigates developer’s payments to Miami’s mayor as SEC digs into company’s finances,” by the Miami Herald’s Jay Weaver: “The FBI and Securities and Exchange Commission have opened parallel investigations into developer RISHI KAPOOR’s business dealings in South Florida, focusing separately on his hiring of Miami’s mayor as a consultant on local projects and his raising of funds from investors … Special agents with the FBI’s public corruption squad began questioning witnesses this week.”

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Ted Kaczynski killed himself in prison yesterday at age 81, NYT’s Glenn Thrush scooped.

Thom Tillis was censured by North Carolina Republican delegates at their convention.

Matt Damon and Ben Affleck’s production company doesn’t want Donald Trump to quote from “Air.”

WHERE’S MERRICK? — Via our colleague Josh Gerstein: AG Merrick Garland’s public schedule for Friday showed no events, in keeping with DOJ’s efforts to portray the indictment of Trump as a decision made by special counsel Jack Smith. Smith even delivered his brief statement at his office at an obscure satellite DOJ building in NoMa. But Garland did actually turn up in public late Friday, joining former D.C. Circuit colleagues at a retirement tribute to D.C. Circuit Judge David Sentelle at the federal courthouse Friday afternoon. The AG didn’t have a speaking role, but seemed to be in good spirits and chatted with Justice Neil Gorsuch, among others.

SPOTTED: Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) at the Brooklyn Pride Parade. Pic

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at Col. Dave Butler’s “third annual summer rager” at his Alexandria house: Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, Dmitri Alperovitch, Tammy Haddad, Jeff Goldberg, Tyler Pager, Haley Britzky, Emily Horne, Sabrina Singh, Carlie Waibel, Jess Kosmider, Gordon Lubold, Mark Leibovich, Alex Marquardt, Helene Cooper, Felicia Schwartz, Adam Entous and Roberto Soberanis.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Deputy CIA Director David CohenJennifer RubinKim Oates of the House Radio/TV Gallery … White House’ Lucas Acosta … J Street’s Jeremy Ben-AmiGreta Van Susteren … Cisco’s Michael TimmenyLindsey Williams DrathCesar Gonzalez of Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart’s (R-Fla.) office … TJ Adams-Falconer Jamal Brown … Duke’s Mike SchoenfeldTad Devine of Devine Mulvey Longabaugh … Penina Graubart Arian Rubio Lorissa Bounds Kristen Thomaselli ... Mary Kate CunninghamMarty Kearns of Netcentric Campaigns … Emily Dobler … former Reps. Mike Conaway (R-Texas) and Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) (93) … Ashley Mocarski … former South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard (7-0) … Eric Lieberman Wendy Teramoto … CNN’s Morgan Rimmer

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