Good morning,
I wanted to reach out today with some incredibly exciting news. As active traders, we know that A+++ setups are the golden opportunities we all eagerly await. Well, the wait is over! I am thrilled to share such setups, which only come around a few times a year.
My Plan
$SMCI is SUPER close. We haven't seen this setup in 2023 yet, at least not this A+. We typically get a few per year. | |
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but you MUST be prepared ahead of time for it to capitalize. The last one I remember that I nailed was $MRNA. And if you were in the room back then you probably remember me TRYING to prepare everyone for it. We had this huge runup into the psych $500 level. I told people every single day, be ready for the BIG day. It.Is.Coming. | | and you know what happened?
On the BIG day, when it began to flush, everyone flipped into their TT mindset and said "buy the emotional flush." Normally, nothing wrong with that. But when you look at this chart, you HAVE to understand that there will come a day when there ain't no buyers and the price is going to be heavy AF. On that day, if you decide to try and bounce it, you are playing a dangerous game.
some other examples of these rare unicorns are.... | | | | | oh, and whadayah know, we've seen this $NVDA movie before!!! imagine that | | so how do we prepare for it?
well first, you start by visualizing the different scenarios that could present themselves. From there, you have to create plans for each one. | | we already have a valid setup looming, but it is NOT optimal. the valid trigger to take us back to the 120min20 is below 192.5.
so the first thing you have to ask is "how can I get involved prior to that but still be keeping myself safe?"
....enter #Scenario1 | | in this scenario, we assume no gap up and the anticipation trigger is the breach of 204.47. What you would want to see is the stock flush out below that level and then when it tries to reclaim, you would want to see it stuffing/failing at that area.
If it reclaims, you have to realize that it may have pulled in a whole new batch of shorts and might be gearing for another leg higher. remember, capital preservation is still the top priority.
If it stays heavy in that area, this is where I would look to put on my initial position with risk over the PDH. I would then look to add to the position if we could stay heavy and then add even more if we finally get the full trigger below 192.5. First target is the 120min20, but I do think this could realistically get back down to that 168-170 level in the near term.
Remember to keep in mind the bigger picture because the last thing you want to do is be the guy that is covering at 200 and then complaining the rest of the day that you botched it by forgetting how extended this name is.
#Scenario1 is A+ in my opinion
enter #Scenario2 | | In #Scenario2 we find support at that 204 area and get another leg higher. This keeps us in "Stalking Mode" as the trade morphs from A+ --> A++. This is where you hear the experienced traders say "the higher the better."
In this scenario, we are looking for extension away from the lower timeframes and then the ability to identify "the TURN" as early as possible. The earlier the better, but remember you don't need to be full size at the top. This is the type of situation where i actually prefer to start with 1/4 size (or even less) and then add on subsequent triggers as the stock loses timeframe to timeframe, desperately seeking balance and realizing that it's lower each time.
and last but not least, the thing that I dream about at night, #Scenario3 | | in this scenario we get the gap up and HOPEFULLY a push off the open. This is as A+++ as it gets. This is the truest form of "When Shorts Scream" :registered: . The move higher is fueled by the last remaining shorts that carried their positions overnight only to wake up with the stock gapping over the PDHs. When there are no shorts left to cover, and there are no more longs silly enough to buy up at these elevations, the stock will have a HUMONGOUS supply imbalance. I'm getting excited about it just typing it out. I need to calm down. Most likely a cold shower in my near future.
If this isn't your "cup of tea", that is fine. Sit it out, But the 1 thing I BEG of you: when this thing gets heavy and starts to roll over, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do NOT be the guy in the room saying " $SMCI is flushing. going long at weekly pivot..." Even if that trade works, if you take that same trade 100x's, you will lose money in the long run. Don't be that guy/girl.
I hope you all can benefit from this because the opportunity that is on the horizon is GIGANTIC. Even if I have to take a few papercuts in the process, this is the kind of trade that can make your week, your month, your quarter, and yes, even your year! 🍻 | Thanks for reading,
Rickyanalog |
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