Friday, May 12, 2023

😖Heed the Warning: This Market’s Already Preparing for a Debt Default

Good morning. Historically, the U.S. has had a number of debt talks to avoid a default. And, so...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Historically, the U.S. has had a number of debt talks to avoid a default. And, so far, there's always been a deal, even if it's at the last minute… or if it's just a quick fix before a longer-term solution can be found.

Will this time be different? Probably not. But just because something is unlikely to happen doesn't mean that won't. The bond market is pricing in a small possibility of a debt default. In a worst-case scenario, holders of Treasury bills will take a hit, and the financial system may see a shockwave that hits other markets, including stocks.

It may be prudent to take money out of Treasuries ahead of a potential debt default and move to cash. And to look for downside protection from a fast – but likely brief – market pullback.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,309.51 -0.66%
S&P 4,130.62 -0.17%
NASDAQ 12,328.51 +0.18%
*As of market close
Stocks closed mixed on Thursday, as regional bank PacWest reported a major drop in deposits.
Oil dropped 1.6 percent, closing at $71.43 per barrel.
Gold slid 0.9 percent, ending the day at $2,020 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies also moved lower, with Bitcoin at $26,835 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Stick With Income Payers in Today's Markets
2023 has been a strong year for stocks so far. Even if the market flattens out from here, it will still be a much better year than 2022. Those looking to buy today won't get the extreme lows from last October or December for most stocks.

Rather than pile into stocks that have done well, investors may do better by focusing on income stocks rather than growth stocks for the time being. Fortunately, many companies have continued to grow their dividends.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Pfizer (PFE)
Scott Gottlieb, a director at Pfizer (PFE), recently bought 2,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 50 percent, and came to a total cost of $77,005.

This marks the first insider buy at the company over the past two years. Company executives have largely been sellers of shares, particularly at the executive vice president level. Some of those sales came from exercising stock options, although more than half did not.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: PayPal (PYPL)
Digital payment platform PayPal (PYPL) is down about 12 percent over the past year, although shares have been trending higher in the past few months. One trader sees that trend continuing in the coming weeks.

That's based on the June 23 $75 calls. With 42 days until expiration, 4,065 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 116, for a 35-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.36 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Worker Happiness Reaches 36-Year High

Job satisfaction hit a 36-year high in 2022, in a sign of a strong job market. Higher wages, increased work flexibility, and a move into positions that are a better fit contributed to the increase in satisfaction. A full 62.3 percent of U.S. workers reported being satisfied with their jobs, up from 56.8 percent in 2020.
Bank of England Raises Interest Rates

The Bank of England has raised interest rates this month to 4.5 percent, following the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. This is the 12th time the central banks has raised interest rates since the start of the current rate hike cycle. Interest rates are now at their highest level in England in 15 years.
European Parliament Backs AI Legislation

The legislative arm of the European Union has backed legislation agreeing to a set of principles and requirements for AI technologies. The goal is to set transparency and safety rules, and also strengthen laws that ban the use of remote biometrics.
China Inflation Drops to 0.1 Percent

The latest inflation data out of China shows a drop in their consumer price index to just 0.1 percent. That's the lowest rate of growth the company has seen in two years, and may be a sign of a bigger slowdown ahead. The country's producer price index dropped 3.6 percent, the largest contraction in three years.
DHL Sees Economic Rebound in the Second Half of 2023

Shipping logistics company DHL is seeing continued strength, as companies are betting on a rebound in demand for trade orders in the second half of the year. Currently, demand is low as retailers are still working through existing inventories, which has contributed to a drop in global factory orders.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
STE  9.747%
TPR  9.195%
AXON 5.744%
CRL 5.03%
GOOGL 4.671%
BOTTOM
DIS 8.562%
CMA 6.564%
WBD 5.138%
FCX 4.953%
PKI 4.805%

Quote of the Day
With each passing month without slowing in core inflation, the chances of getting down to the FOMC's forecast for the year are receding. So, to me, this is not a dovish result.
- Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, on the inflation data showing that core inflation remains stubbornly high, another sign that interest rates will likely stay higher for longer.

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