The U.S. energy transition is well underway. But its progress is uneven. On one hand, consumers are tapping new federal incentives for electric cars, heat pumps and other low-carbon technology. Coal consumption has plummeted to levels not seen since the Eisenhower administration, when the country’s population was less than half of what it is today, writes POLITICO’s E&E News reporter Benjamin Storrow. Yet there’s a flip side. U.S. oil and natural gas production is on track to hit record levels. Oil still dominates transportation — the largest source of U.S. planet-warming pollution. And vast amounts of electricity made from fossil fuels will continue to flow as electric cars and home heating drive up demand in the early years of a transition to a carbon-free electric grid. While falling coal use and climbing oil and gas production are nothing new, Ben said he’s surprised by the “sheer magnitude and divergence” of this year’s trends. The country is “transitioning remarkably quickly when it comes to electric power. But meeting the nation’s climate goals requires wholesale change across the economy, and to date we just haven't seen that,” Ben told Power Switch this morning. “You could even argue the transition is going the opposite direction because we have shifted from a net oil and gas importer to a net oil and gas exporter.” Even if U.S. demand for oil and gas declines, drilling may not. U.S. oil and gas production has soared since Russia invaded Ukraine, with natural gas exports feeding new demand in Europe and more West Texas oil flowing into the global market. Still, Jesse Jenkins, a Princeton University researcher tracking the U.S. energy transition, told Ben the United States is at an inflection point. President Joe Biden’s signature climate law could create the conditions to drive down demand for oil and gas in the U.S. and put the country on track to cut planet-warming pollution 40 percent by decade’s end. The key word is “could.” While the law pours billions into low-carbon energy, it doesn’t address logistical issues such as building new power lines to carry wind and solar power into cities. The permitting process for large energy projects continues to be a source of tension for lawmakers. “There are practical elements that have to come together for this to move faster, to move quicker,” Elizabeth Kaiga, an analyst with the consulting firm DNV GL, told Ben. “It is something we have to figure out, but I don’t see a clear solution from where I sit right now.”
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