Friday, March 3, 2023

Is Krispy Kreme's Stock Delicious or a Dud?

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Is Krispy Kreme's Stock Delicious or a Dud?

Jody Chudley, Contributing Analyst, The Oxford Club

Jody Chudley

Have you been thinking about taking a bite of Krispy Kreme (Nasdaq: DNUT) shares?

There are definitely things to like about this company.

Krispy Kreme has 99% brand recognition. That's some serious brand strength. And it has staying power.

The first Krispy Kreme was opened by Vernon Rudolph more than 85 years ago in 1937. Rudolph rented a building in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and started selling his Krispy Kreme doughnuts to local grocery stores.

When the delicious smells emanating from his shop started attracting foot traffic, Rudolph cut a hole in the outside wall and started selling directly to sidewalk customers.

From there, tremendous growth ensued.

Today, Krispy Kreme sells 1.6 billion doughnuts per year from 11,700 different locations globally. Management expects that growth to continue through expansion.

The company's most recent investor presentation shows plans for revenue to increase 42%, from $1.52 billion in 2022 to $2.15 billion in 2026.

Chart: Krispy Kreme Net Revenue
 

Management also expects revenue growth to translate into an even faster increase in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).

That same presentation shows expectations for EBITDA to jump 65%, from $190 million in 2022 to $315 million in 2026.

Chart: Krispy Kreme Adjusted EBITDA
 

EBITDA is a good proxy for how much cash flow operations can generate. It's good to see that management expects cash flow to grow at a good clip over the next few years.

But here's the problem...

DELICIOUS OR A DUD?
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