Thursday, March 9, 2023

☕ Mom was wrong

Turns out money can buy happiness...
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Morning Brew

Revela

Good morning. In yesterday's most "What could possibly go wrong?" news, WWE is reportedly in talks with regulators in Colorado and Michigan to legalize gambling on its high-profile matches. But don't call it sports betting—those match results are arranged in advance, so it'd be similar to wagering on an event occurring in a scripted TV show.

If this were around 10 years ago, the bets on the eventual King of Westeros would've totaled in the trillions.

Matty Merritt, Jamie Wilde, Max Knoblauch, Abby Rubenstein, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

11,576.01

S&P

3,992.01

Dow

32,798.40

10-Year

3.992%

Bitcoin

$21,946.95

Tesla

$182.00

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks ended up mixed after Jerome Powell testified before Congress for the second day in a row and and insisted that no decision had yet been made about the Fed's next move on interest rates. Tesla had its worst day in a month in the wake of Elon Musk's viral tweets mocking a laid-off Twitter employee with a disability who reached out on the platform to ask if he still had a job (Musk later apologized).
 

RETAIL

How would you get rid of $1.3b worth of sneakers?

Very ugly red Yeezys. Jeremy Moeller/Getty Images

Like everyone with a Deathly Hallows tattoo, Adidas is stuck with a very expensive reminder that a lot has changed in the last few years. The athletic brand is sitting on roughly $1.3 billion worth of Yeezy gear after cutting ties with Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, for his antisemitic comments.

No one knows how to get rid of it

During an earnings call yesterday, the new Adidas CEO Bjørn Gulden made it clear that ditching its unwanted Yeezy stock is a top priority. However, the company is sort of stuck between a rock and an antisemitic sneaker:

  • Burning or trashing the gear would be unsustainable.
  • Donating the shoes could create a boom in the resale market.
  • Even if Adidas rebrands the items and sells them, Ye is still promised a cut of the profits.

The most likely option? Sell the kicks and donate the proceeds to charity. Gulden vaguely upvoted this solution in yesterday's call, saying, "If we sell it, I promise that the people who have been hurt by this will also get something good out of this."

Big picture: Figuring out how to offload warehouses full of taboo merch isn't the only headache Gulden is dealing with following the company's breakup with Ye. Adidas reported roughly $630 million in lost sales in Q4 of 2022 because of the split. As a result, Gulden cautioned investors investors not to have high hopes for 2023, calling it a "transition year." The company is also cutting dividends as it figures out how to replace its $1.5 billion Ye collab.

Even bigger picture: The company expects an operating loss of over $730 million this year. The last time Adidas reported an annual loss, George H. W. Bush was president and Wayne's World was still a "new movie" (31 years ago).—MM

        

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

The Silvergate logo surrounded by coins Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The latest crypto giant to fall is Silvergate Capital. The crypto company announced yesterday that it's winding down operations and liquidating Silvergate Bank, which has about $11 billion in assets. Silvergate has been on the struggle bus throughout crypto's downturn—especially after the collapse of FTX, one of its biggest customers. Last quarter, Silvergate fired 40% of its workforce, reported a $1 billion loss, and took out billions in loans…but apparently it wasn't enough.

Louisville Police routinely violated civil rights, according to a Department of Justice probe launched in response to Breonna Taylor's death. After a two-year investigation, the DOJ concluded that Louisville Police officers illegally arrested people, used excessive force, and entered homes without announcing themselves. The people on the receiving end of these behaviors were disproportionately Black. Additionally, the DOJ said yesterday it would launch an investigation into the Memphis Police Department sparked by the fatal beating of Tyre Nichols in January.

JPMorgan sues former exec over Epstein relationship. The bank sued its former executive Jes Staley, who largely managed its business with financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The suit is a legal move aimed at putting Staley on the hook financially if the bank loses lawsuits lodged against it by Epstein's victims and the US Virgin Islands over its ties to Epstein, a JPMorgan customer for 15 years. Staley, who was the CEO of Barclays for a while after leaving JPMorgan, has said that he was unaware of Epstein's misdeeds.

ECONOMY

The bond market is flashing a recession warning light

A dashboard with a check economy light flashing Hannah Minn

At this point, economists have been predicting an imminent recession for so long that they're starting to sound like that guy who insisted on spending December 31, 1999, in a remote cabin because of Y2K. Still, one big recession warning signal reared its head this week.

What happened? When Jerome Powell told lawmakers Tuesday that recent strong economic data meant interest rates would likely climb higher than previously expected, it sent the markets into a tizzy, pushing the US Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion since 1981.

And that means…the yield for 2-year Treasury bonds exceeded the yield for 10-year ones—by a lot. It's considered an inversion whenever the short-term yield eclipses the long-term yield. It signifies that investors expect interest rates to rise in the near term but that those hikes will ultimately damage the economy, forcing rates back down over time.

What does it have to do with a recession? A yield curve inversion has happened before every recession since the 1960s, so it's definitely a more reliable prognosticator than your friend who has "a system" for their March Madness bracket.

Yeah, but…predicting the future is hard. Right now, investors are freaked out by the Fed, but Powell is still trying to stick the (soft) landing—even if this makes it look less likely.—AR

        

TOGETHER WITH INTUIT MAILCHIMP

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WEALTH

Mom was 100% wrong—money for sure buys happiness

Mom was % wrong—money for sure buys happiness Wolf of Wall Street/Paramount Pictures via Giphy

Forget being rich in friendships, folks, it's time to 10x that salary and start a side hustle dropshipping iPhone cases. A new study found that happiness rises with income—even accelerating at levels beyond $100,000 per year up to $500,000 per year.

Millionaires and billionaires might be even happier: The study's authors didn't have conclusive data for salaries beyond that range (those folks are probably too blissed out to take surveys). This new information upends an oft-cited 2010 study that found happiness plateaued near a salary of $75,000, or ~$103k today, after inflation.

In the new study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, two prominent researchers (including Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winner who wrote that 2010 paper) surveyed 33,391 US adults aged 18 to 65 with household incomes of at least $10,000. Participants logged their happiness levels when prompted randomly throughout the day via an app.

A caveat: While more money does lead to more happiness for most people, it's not the only factor, and its emotional effect is small compared to other considerations, like time off from work. "An approximately four-fold difference in income is about equal to the effect of a weekend," the study said.—MK

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Packages on a doorstep in the snow Onfokus/Getty Images

Stat: Bad weather used to mean a drop in retail sales, but now shoppers stuck inside can order banana corers and mop slippers from their couches. US shoppers are expected to spend an additional $13.5 billion when the weather outside is frightful this year, according to an Adobe report released yesterday. Rain is expected to boost sales the most, adding $8.7 billion. Wind will add $4.4 billion, and snow will provide a small uptick—especially in New York and Seattle.

Quote: "1,160 toilets and urinals. Three times the NBA average! We do not want people waiting in line. We want people to get back to their damn seats."

Eat all the stadium nachos and hot dogs you want because the new LA Clippers stadium has no shortage of toilets, according to team owner Steve Ballmer. He hyped up the still-under-construction Intuit Dome during a sneak peek of its facilities—especially, erm, the facilities. He previously said he'd "become a real obsessive about" those toilets. The stadium is slated to open during the 2024–2025 season.

Read: Open AI's CEO invested $108 million in a company trying to cheat death. (MIT Technology Review)

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • Tesla is being investigated by US safety regulators over steering wheels coming off in moving vehicles and a fatal crash involving its Autopilot feature.
  • The Senate passed a resolution blocking a law that would have reduced penalties for some crimes in Washington, DC. It's the first time Congress has overruled a DC law since 1991.
  • A Missouri law barring police from enforcing federal gun laws was ruled unconstitutional. The state plans to appeal.
  • Israeli activists called for a "day of resistance" today in opposition to a planned overhaul of the country's judicial system. The US Secretary of Defense altered a planned trip due to the protests.
  • Tucker Carlson may not be a big Donald Trump fan in private, new text messages made public in Dominion Voting Systems's $1.6 billion lawsuit against Fox News show.

TAXES

Get some guidance

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Check out the guide.

This editorial content is supported by TaxAct.

RECS

To do list Thursday

What does a consultant do? The Brew's video team eventually got the answer.

Go beyond brushing: Expert tips to curb bad breath.

Amazing animals: Check out the winners of a nature photography contest.

Get ready for Sunday: How to watch every Oscar-nominated film online.

Getting personal: Want personalized marketing without doubling your workload? Mailchimp's Content Optimizer does the work for you by analyzing data from successful campaigns and offering customized suggestions to help improve your messaging. Check it out.*

*This is sponsored advertising content.

INSIDE JOBS

What's it like to make music for Pikachu and friends?

Pikachu waving The Pokémon Company

Inside Jobs, our series on unconventional careers, is back.

In his early days pursuing music, Ed Goldfarb spent a good chunk of his life taking on side gigs—from playing organs in church to performing country tunes for famous NASCAR drivers in a luxury penthouse. But these days, he spends most of his time in his Novato, California, home composing music for film and TV—including the Pokémon franchise.

We chatted with Goldfarb about blowing past Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000-hour rule, watching movies without music, and why you have to let the universe figure out your dream job for you sometimes.

Check it out here.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew Mini: Today's Mini features what's known as a "quadruple multinym." Play the crossword here, then look up what that is.

Three headlines and a lie

Three of these headlines are real and one is faker than your friend's story of bowling a 310 game. Can you spot the odd one out?

  1. Parents force son to watch TV all night as punishment for watching too much TV
  2. Notre Dame will introduce lower-pitched basketball buzzer after the old one made campus swans aggressive
  3. Amazon jungle: Man survives 31 days by eating worms
  4. Sunny D introduces new alcoholic drink

AROUND THE BREW

Investing for everybody

Investing for everybody

Money with Katie is giving away her Investing 101 series...for FREE. Learn the basics of creating long-term wealth here.

Who's going to SXSW? Join us for happy hour to network, play shuffleboard, and chat about finance.

What do you and marketing leaders have in common? You both can attend our Marketing Brew Summit on May 11. Sign up here.

ANSWER

We made up the one about Notre Dame.

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, Max Knoblauch, Jamie Wilde, and Abigail Rubenstein

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