Thursday, March 9, 2023

😱More Pain Ahead as Interest Rate Hikes Set to Accelerate

Good morning. Financial markets have bumped up their bets for a 50-basis point increase the next...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Financial markets have bumped up their bets for a 50-basis point increase the next time the Federal Reserve meets later this month. About half of traders expect the move, up from 30 percent before Chairman Jerome Powell suggested on Tuesday that the central bank would need to act more aggressively.

Right now, interest rates stand at a 4.5 to 4.75 percent range. That's still under the most recent read of 6.4 percent inflation – which suggests that economic conditions still aren't tight enough. Until short-term rates are over the rate of inflation, there's likely more rate hikes ahead – no matter how quickly they move higher.

Investors and traders alike are getting a yellow flag to watch out on trading on the long side right now. It may be better to target some short-term downside opportunities in the face of a faster pace of rate hikes.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 32,798.40 -0.18%
S&P 3,992.01 +0.14%
NASDAQ 11,576.00 +0.40%
*As of market close
Markets traded mixed on Wednesday, ending near highs of the day.
Oil dropped 1.4 percent, last going for $76.49 per barrel.
Gold traded flat, ending at $1,819 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded slightly higher, with bitcoin at $22,093 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Higher Earnings and Dividends Is the Perfect Recipe for Higher Prices
Dividend-paying companies have a few ways of delivering cash to shareholders. They can borrow the money, which increases debt and debt payments. They can issue shares, which dilutes shareholders. Neither of those strategies can be done for long.

The best way is to grow their earnings and cash flow. This allows for companies to pay out a growing amount of that cash flow to the owners of the company – the shareholders. It's why investors should look for dividend-growing companies.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Dish Network Corporation (DISH)
James DeFranco, a director at Dish Network Corporation (DISH), recently bought 1,450,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 20 percent, and came to a total cost of over $15.7 million.

The director was the last buyer of shares, picking up 110,000 of them back in September for a mere $1.84 million. All told, the director has been the sole buyer of shares since last May with 8 buys overall. The last insider sale occurred in September 2021.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD)
Gold mining operator Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) has seen shares slide by just over one-third in the past year. One trader is betting on a rebound in shares over the coming months.

That's based on the September $21 calls. With 190 days until expiration, 9,668 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 375, for a 26-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.30 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Yellen Warns on Financial Consequences of Climate Change

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that rising temperatures could intensify natural disasters, causing declines in asset values. In turn, that could lead to a cascading effect throughout the financial system. One area where this can be seen is in disaster-prone areas where insurance companies have been scaling back operations.
Powell Ready to Increase Pace of Interest Rate Hikes

Citing the continued inflation well over its target of 2 percent, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the central bank could raise interest rates more than a quarter-point at a time. The central bank's most recent hike was a quarter point, but most of its hikes in 2022 were made in three-quarter increments.
IRS: Americans Should Expect Lower Refunds This Year

The Internal Revenue Service expects about two-thirds of Americans to receive refunds this year. However, with the end of pandemic-era tax breaks, the total refund is likely to drop from $3,473 to $3,079. Filers should generally expect a refund within 21 days of filing their returns.
Slack to Integrate ChatGPT

Salesforce (CRM) has announced that it's partnering with OpenAI to launch ChatGPT on its messaging service Slack. The chatbot will allow users to receive conversation summaries, research tools, and provide writing assistance, among other features. The tool is currently in beta testing.
Facebook to Bring Back In-App Messaging

Facebook is testing the ability to use the Messenger inbox within the app. This feature was removed in 2016, as a way of pushing users to download the Messenger app separately. The test is in its early stages, and is likely to see more integration in the coming year.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
ON  5.102%
AMD  3.474%
ANET 3.374%
DXC 3.343%
WBD 3.053%
BOTTOM
NCLH 4.731%
BF.B 4.46%
SIRI 4.187%
VLO 3.797%
REGN 3.749%

Quote of the Day
The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.
- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, on the need for interest rates to stay higher for longer, which will likely keep the economy slow and asset prices from making big moves higher.

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