Monday, January 9, 2023

πŸͺ– GOP's defense divide

Plus: First bill of new Congress | Monday, January 09, 2023
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Jan 09, 2023

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 990 words ... 3.5 minutes.

Situational awareness: The House voted 220-213 tonight to adopt Republicans' rules package, allowing any member to trigger a vote to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Go deeper.

πŸ”Ž Breaking: The Justice Department is investigating the presence of classified documents at the Penn Biden Center in D.C. believed to be from President Biden's time as vice president.

 
 
1 big thing: GOP's defense divide
Jim Jordan and Kevin McCarthy

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) (left) and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Photo: Elizabeth Frantz/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

 

The threat of cuts to U.S. defense spending has emerged as a flashpoint in House Republicans' first week in the majority, widening the GOP's isolationist fault line and exposing the fragility of Kevin McCarthy's young speakership, Zach writes.

Why it matters: The implications of McCarthy's budget concessions are global, stretching far beyond the personal and process arguments that dominated his quest for the gavel.

What's happening: Conservative rebels extracted an agreement during the speaker fight to cap 2024 discretionary spending at fiscal year 2022 levels. Unless the Pentagon is exempted, that could result in a potential $75 billion drop in defense spending, according to Bloomberg.

  • Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a McCarthy ally backed by the Freedom Caucus, confirmed as much when asked about military spending on "Fox News Sunday": "We got a $32 trillion debt. Everything has to be on the table."
  • That comment drew a bristling op-ed from the conservative-leaning Wall Street Journal editorial board, which wrote: "The reality is that if defense is cut, what will go first is spending for operations and maintenance to sustain military readiness, as well as money for the weapons to deter China."

What to watch: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), a Navy veteran, called the potential defense cuts "a horrible idea" and vowed to vote against the House rules package tonight.

  • The House GOP has no shortage of defense hawks who feel the same way, including the chairs of the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees.
  • With only four votes cushioning the Republicans' majority, the consequences of McCarthy's desperate deal-making are already being felt at a granular level.

The intrigue: Eager to capitalize on the GOP's internal strife, the White House press office blasted out the WSJ op-ed and a statement that called defense cuts "senseless and out of line with our national security needs."

  • Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), one of several rising Democratic stars with a national security background, expressed similar views.
  • It's part of an accelerating realignment in which former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) — once the epitome of an establishment Republican — appears to have more in common with Democrats than some in the GOP conference she once chaired.

The other side: Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Andy Harris (R-Md.), two former McCarthy holdouts, vehemently denied that defense cuts were part of the deal that they negotiated.

  • Instead, the Republicans insisted the cuts would target the "woke" federal bureaucracy and other non-defense spending.
  • Democrats will keep a watchful eye out for any sign of entitlements heading for the chopping block. "They are going to try to cut Social Security and Medicare. It could not be clearer," White House chief of staff Ron Klain tweeted.

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2. πŸ’° IRS in crosshairs
Illustration of a shoe kicking the IRS logo.

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

House Republicans' first piece of legislation in the majority — set to be voted on after the rules package tonight — would repeal tens of billions of funding dollars for the IRS passed in the Democrats' signature Inflation Reduction Act last year.

Why it matters: Democratic control of the Senate will ensure the bill never reaches President Biden's desk, but its presence at the very top of the House GOP's agenda suggests IRS funding will feature heavily in future budget standoffs.

  • Rep. Jason Smith (R-Miss.), newly elected today as chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, warned that the new IRS commissioner "should plan to spend a lot of time before our committee."
  • The tax enforcement agency served as a prominent bogeyman in GOP midterm messaging, especially the misleading claim that Biden was hiring 87,000 IRS agents to investigate everyday Americans.

By the numbers: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released a report that found House Republicans' IRS legislation would increase the budget deficit by $114 billion over 10 years.

How it's playing: White House officials flooded the zone with press releases and tweets today accusing House Republicans of using their first bill in the majority to protect "rich tax cheats."

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3. ✅ Senate Dems get their man
Gary Peters and Chuck Schumer

Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) (left) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) has agreed to once again chair the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee after initially declining to serve for a second straight cycle, Politico reports.

Why it matters: 2024's brutal Senate map makes this one of the worst jobs in Washington. But Democrats are thrilled to have Peters back, fresh off a history-making cycle in which all 14 of the party's incumbents defended their Senate seats.

  • The unassuming Michigander will be supported in the grueling role by two vice chairs, Sens. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and Alex Padilla (D-Calif.)
  • High on the list of difficult decisions Peters must make is whether to treat Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — who left the Democratic Party in December to become an independent — as an incumbent.

Latest: Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor is out with a new preview of the open Michigan Senate seat race, which she rates as "lean Democratic" even as the primary to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow appears wide open.

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4. πŸ‡§πŸ‡· Biden extends hand to Lula
Chaos at the National Congress in Brazil on Sunday. Photo: Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty

President Biden invited Brazil's President Luiz InΓ‘cio Lula da Silva to visit the White House in early February, a show of support after the invasion of government buildings in Brasilia by supporters of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro.

What to watch: Some Democratic lawmakers are urging Biden to expel Bolsonaro from Florida, where he has been temporarily residing after refusing to hand over the presidential sash to Lula for his Jan. 1 inauguration. Bolsonaro was hospitalized with abdominal pain today.

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5. πŸŽ₯ RIP C-SPAN after dark

πŸ“š Worthy of your time: C-SPAN Unleashes its Inner Scorcese (The New Yorker)

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πŸ“¬ Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.

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