Thursday, January 5, 2023

📈Are We Nearing Peak Disinflation?

Good morning. Economic data is often mixed – with bad news appearing amid general prosperity, an...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Economic data is often mixed – with bad news appearing amid general prosperity, and good news occurring amid calamities. The past year has seen the Federal Reserve aggressively raise interest rates to bring down inflation.

In real terms, they're not there yet. But they could be close. Year-over-year numbers should start to show some big declines. That will give the central bank a reason to pause. However, some data remains stubborn. The Fed wants to see higher unemployment, to ensure that inflationary pressures truly remain down. But the latest job data shows a high record of job openings available.

Until this trend plays out more clearly, traders should continue to expect market volatility – and for stocks to largely keep trending lower until the Fed changes its tune.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,269.77 +0.40%
S&P 3,852.97 +0.75%
NASDAQ 10,458.76 +0.69%
*As of market close
Stocks closed higher on Wednesday, in choppy trading.
Oil dropped 4.9 percent, last going for $73.18 per barrel.
Gold rose 0.7 percent, ending at $1,860 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded flat, with bitcoin trading at $16,811 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Commodity Will Continue to See Strength This Year
In a volatile market, it may seem that no sector is safe. That's especially true as both stocks and bonds sold off by double-digits last year. But other asset classes are more mixed. Commodities held up fairly well last year, and some specific plays look set to fare well into 2023 and possibly beyond.

That's because the rules of the commodity space can come down to supply and demand. Any change in those factors can lead to big prices swings.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Agree Realty Corp (ADC)
Craig Erlich, COO at Agree Realty Corp (ADC), recently added 4,898 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 19 percent, and came to a total cost just under $80,000.

The buy came a week after a company director bought 11,000 shares, paying just over $785,000. Otherwise, company insiders haven't made any changes in their holdings in nearly a year. Going back over the past three years, insiders have been consistent buyers.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Nikola Corporation (NKLA)
Shares of electric truck manufacturer Nikola Corporation (NKLA) are down 80 percent over the past year. One trader sees a further decline ahead.

That's based on the January 2024 $2 puts. With 379 days until expiration, 40,037 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 967, for a 41-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.08 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Mortgage Applications Slide to 1996 Levels

Home loan applications dropped 13.2 percent lower in the final two weeks of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. 2022 also saw the lowest level of total mortgage applications going back over two decades to 1996, as mortgage rates more than doubled last year.
Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected

Total available jobs in the US hit 10.46 million in November, according to the Department of Labor. That's higher than expectations for 10 million jobs, but slightly lower than October's read of 10.51 million. The data shows about 1.7 openings for each job seeker, indicating that the labor market remains tight.
General Motors Becomes Top Automaker In US

General Motors (GM) sold 2.27 million vehicles in the US in 2022, a 2.5 increase compared to 2021. The company is now the top auto seller in the US, as prior holder Toyota Motors (TM), sold 2.1 million vehicles, a 9.6 percent decline. Toyota managed to outsell GM by just 114,034 in 2021.
Salesforce to Cut 10 Percent of Workforce

Citing that it "hired too many people" during the pandemic, cloud services company Salesforce (CRM) is looking to lay off about 10 percent of its workforce. That will impact about 7,000 employees, and could also result in the company shutting down offices in some markets.
Meta Fined $400 Million on Online Activity Ads

Meta Platforms (META), parent company of Facebook, is being fined $400 million by privacy regulators in Ireland. The company has been serving ads to customers based on their online activity, in violation of privacy laws. The fine could further reduce digital ad spending by companies looking to best attract users.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
JD  14.677%
BIDU  10.602%
BBWI 10.512%
CCL 9.661%
WBD 8.805%
BOTTOM
ANET 5.847%
MSFT 4.374%
ADM 3.636%
CI 3.478%
APA 3.37%

Quote of the Day
A recessionary environment in 2023 could further hamper tech stock performance in the new year, as investors' thirst would increase for value oriented companies and those with higher profit margins, more consistent cash flows, and robust dividend yields.
- Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments, on why tech stocks may continue to underperform in 2023, and why investors may continue to move towards value plays instead.

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