| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels , Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Early voters wait to cast their ballots in Georgia's runoff election for U.S. Senate between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker on Wednesday, Nov. 30, in Athens, Ga. | John Bazemore/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE WEEK — Monday: President JOE BIDEN hosts congressional ball at the White House … Tuesday: Election Day in the Georgia Senate runoff between Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK and HERSCHEL WALKER. … Wednesday: SCOTUS hears North Carolina case with major implications for the "independent state legislature" theory … Rep. DONALD McEACHIN's (D-Va.) funeral service in Richmond, Va. ONE MORE DAY — In roughly 37 hours, Georgians will cast the final votes of the 2022 midterms, deciding the Senate runoff between incumbent Democrat RAPHAEL WARNOCK and Republican football legend HERSCHEL WALKER. The two campaigns spent the final weekend very differently. Warnock continued his flood-the-zone strategy, with six events across the state, while Walker held just one public event, on Sunday with GOP Sens. TIM SCOTT (S.C.) and JOHN KENNEDY (La.). Today is about the base for both candidates: Walker will make several stops in the conservative northern part of state while Warnock stays in Atlanta, visiting with union workers in the morning, addressing Georgia Tech students in the afternoon and closing the campaign out with a nighttime rally. NYT's Jazmine Ulloa, Maya King and Reid Epstein dig into the different tactics, noting that "Mr. Walker's pace in the race's closing stretch has caused consternation among his allies," with some Republicans fearing that he is "running out of time to draw in moderate conservatives and Black voters." But Walker's challenges appear to be much more profound. With nearly 2 million ballots already cast, early voting metrics appear to favor Warnock, with the highest turnout levels in Democratic strongholds. The incumbent, meanwhile, is significantly outspending Walker on TV. And with the Senate majority no longer on the line, Republican voters wary of a flawed candidate have one fewer reason to cast a ballot. Some Republicans we spoke to over the weekend are sounding much less confident than they did weeks ago. GOP consultant SETH WEATHERS said he was "worried," citing Walker's weakness as a candidate and the strength of the Democratic ground operation. "Prior to the November election, I said this race will go to a runoff and I think Herschel will win the runoff," said Weathers, who spent time as Georgia state director for DONALD TRUMP's 2016 presidential campaign. "I'm a little less confident on things with the runoff. Herschel could still win. I'm just not overly confident." Reporting from Georgia, Brittany Gibson and Natalie Allison note some more subtle hints of GOP pessimism: "Both Walker's campaign and the Georgia Republican Party have sent out emails in recent days describing his Tuesday evening gathering as an 'Election night party,' rather than a 'Victory Celebration' party. It's a minor difference in phrasing from Walker's Nov. 8 election night event, but one that has raised eyebrows among party activists." The race is clearly not over. Republican voters could still flood polling places tomorrow, defying the emerging conventional wisdom and overwhelming Warnock's early vote advantage. But it's not too early to start thinking through the lessons from either outcome.
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Throughout the U.S., we help people invest for retirement, offer greater access to markets with low-cost investment options, and help communities thrive. BlackRock is invested in the future of Americans. Learn more. | | | IF WARNOCK WINS … — Georgia is a bona fide purple state. Biden's Georgia win was the breakthrough Peach State Democrats had been heralding for years, and the twin victories in the subsequent Senate runoffs only cemented that claim. But states typically transform over multiple election cycles, and a Warnock victory Tuesday would confirm Georgia's trajectory as the state's demographic picture only gets more favorable for Democrats. Could we be looking at Virginia circa 2008? — Democrats have the infrastructure for the long haul. STACEY ABRAMS may have soundly lost her gubernatorial rematch this year, but the turnout apparatus she helped create is on the cusp of delivering another a must-win race to Democrats. "It's just a fucking machine," Weathers told Playbook. It might not yet match what the late HARRY REID built in Nevada, but it's getting there. — There's a blueprint for flipping red states. Democratic organizers in conservative states have pleaded for years for more national investment, and if Warnock pulls it out, they believe they will have irrefutable proof of concept. "Ten years ago, Georgia was very red," a Democratic strategist told us last night. "It's a testament to the work of organizing and implementing a plan more than just a two- or four-year cycle." IF WALKER WINS … — It takes very special circumstances to turn Georgia blue. As many in the GOP are quick to point out, Georgia Republicans not named Herschel Walker all won their statewide races last month, so a GOP victory Tuesday would give the party a full sweep. If a candidate as flawed as Walker can win, it could mean that Democrats can only win Georgia when Trump himself is at center stage. — Trump gets a much-needed boost. Speaking of the embattled former president, nothing could undermine the growing sense that Trump is a loser for Republicans than a come-from-behind win by his hand-picked candidate. It would make it that much harder to push the former president and current presidential candidate to the sidelines. — BRIAN KEMP is a political juggernaut. Moving to the runoff, Walker lost the chance to argue that the Senate majority is at stake. But he gained an active and effective surrogate in Gov. Brian Kemp, who kept his distance from Walker during his race against Abrams. Kemp appeared at multiple rallies and cut a direct-to-camera endorsement ad, and it's hard to see Walker pulling it out without Kemp vouching for him to skeptical suburbanites. Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and pre-register your Peach State takes: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   BlackRock is proud to support U.S. roads and infrastructure, with over $20 billion invested on behalf of our clients. Learn more. | | | BIG WEEK FOR NDAA — Lawmakers are set to unveil a bipartisan, bicameral compromise draft of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, with the House moving to pass the $847 billion legislation by the end of the week. Our Connor O'Brien and Bryan Bender scooped this weekend that the package could include an olive branch for Republicans: an end to the requirement that service members get vaccinated for Covid. That mandate has been a GOP target since it was instituted in August 2021. And with Democrats — especially in the House — needing GOP votes to pass the bill, the change in policy comes not a moment too soon: A 60-year streak of on-time enactment is on the line as 2023 approaches. The vaccine concession won't mollify all Republicans. Some want the bill to reinstate and repay the thousands of service members who were dismissed after refusing the vaccine. But House Armed Services Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) told Bryan that idea is an absolute no-go: "Orders are not optional in the military." House Republicans have been eyeing other so-called woke Pentagon policies that, for instance, emphasize diversity. But those are likely to remain intact even as House GOP Leader KEVIN McCARTHY faces pressure to deliver conservative wins ahead of the Jan. 3 speaker vote. McCarthy suggested last month that the bill should be held over into the new year for the first time since 1961 to allow a new Republican majority to put its stamp on it. But that got a chilly reception among defense hawks, with ranking House Armed Services Republican MIKE ROGERS (Ala.) telling The Hill flatly, "That's not gonna happen." One other bit of NDAA news: The package is expected to include yet another overhaul of the military's handling of sexual assault cases, a well-placed Senate official told us Sunday night. The inclusion of the provision — which strips commanders of their powers over criminal cases in the military, including their ability to give clemency, approve delays and grant immunity to witnesses — would represent the culmination of a decadelong fight by Sen. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.). Similar language was pulled from last year's NDAA at the eleventh hour, however, and the official cautioned that nothing is final until this year's bill is filed. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — In a letter to Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL , 70 mayors of cities that have suffered mass shootings in 2022 are urging the Senate to take up two House-passed gun-control bills — one expanding background checks, the other banning assault weapons — in the lame duck. "We can tell you firsthand of the devastating impact these shootings have had on our residents and on our cities," the mayors write. "How much more death and destruction must our residents and our communities endure before the Senate acts? Read the full letter here.
| | BIDEN'S MONDAY:
9 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.
6:30 p.m.: The Bidens will host the Congressional Ball.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2 p.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY — The VP and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will attend the Congressional Ball.
THE HOUSE will meet at noon, with no votes expected. The Rules Committee will meet at 3 p.m. to take up multiple big pieces of legislation.
THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up F. KAY BEHM's judicial nomination. It will vote on DORIS PRYOR's judicial nomination at 5:30 p.m.
BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD — The president will head to Phoenix on Tuesday to visit chip manufacturer TSMC and tout his economic agenda. | | | | | | POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP . | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden greet honoree Gladys Knight (L) during the Kennedy Center Honors ceremony on Sunday, Dec. 4, in Washington, D.C. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ALL POLITICS KNOWING WARNOCK — NYT's Katie Glueck dives into the senator's time in New York, where he lived as a seminary student and a pastor for about a decade while he was mostly in his 20s. Harlem "helped cement his instincts to channel the teachings of his faith into social justice activism," she finds, as Warnock moved beyond the church door under the tutelage of influential mentor CALVIN BUTTS at Abyssinian Baptist Church. He protested against police brutality and started to rack up some arrests for civil disobedience. His peers recall him as "notably driven" and funny. DHILLON PANTHERS — California Trumpist activist HARMEET DHILLON is getting ready to jump into the RNC chair race officially in a matter of days, the most substantial challenge yet to incumbent RONNA McDANIEL, Alex Isenstadt reports . Dhillon argues that the party needs change, but it's an uphill battle as McDaniel's camp says she's already sewn up a majority of RNC members. Dhillon allies think "that McDaniel's support is soft and that she could win over those who are unhappy with the party's disappointing showing in this year's midterms." MyPillow's MIKE LINDELL is also in the race, while Rep. LEE ZELDIN (R-N.Y.) is considering a bid. 2024 WATCH — Montana Rep. MATT ROSENDALE and Rep.-elect RYAN ZINKE are both considering jumping into the Senate GOP primary to challenge incumbent Democrat JON TESTER, Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers report this morning . That could set up a rematch between the two men, who squared off in a 2014 House primary (Zinke won), or between Rosendale and Tester, who ran against each other in 2018. And there's plenty of GOP movement in other top Senate races. In West Virginia, Rep. ALEX MOONEY is in, while AG PATRICK MORRISEY and Gov. JIM JUSTICE are thinking about runs. In Ohio, Secretary of State FRANK LaROSE and Rep. WARREN DAVIDSON are considering campaigns, while others speculate about MATT DOLAN and BERNIE MORENO. And in Indiana, an expected open seat could draw Reps. JIM BANKS, VICTORIA SPARTZ and TREY HOLLINGSWORTH, state Attorney General TODD ROKITA (who might go for governor instead) and JENNIFER-RUTH GREEN. 2028 WATCH — Though Biden's move to put South Carolina first in the presidential primary line stands to benefit himself, it also could give Harris a boost in the future, NBC's Jonathan Allen and Natasha Korecki report . A lead-off state with a high percentage of Black voters, especially Black women, might line up well for Harris in a contested primary down the road. — And Georgia's place of prominence could benefit Warnock for a future presidential bid, the Washington Examiner's Rachel Schilke notes . THE WHITE HOUSE HEADS UP — With antisemitism surging into the public eye in recent weeks, the White House will convene a roundtable on combating the hatred with top officials and Jewish leaders Wednesday morning, per the Forward's Jacob Kornbluh . CONGRESS THE BROOKLYN BOYS — Schumer and incoming House Democratic Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES are both Brooklynites with a flexible leadership style that accommodates the party's different ideological flanks. But the two leaders from different generations, who will have to build a closer relationship, have pretty distinct approaches: Schumer an outgoing political junkie, Jeffries a low-key consensus builder. "He loves Biggie. I like Big Daddy Kane," Schumer tells Marianne LeVine and Sarah Ferris . "His favorite diner is Tom's, I like Purity Diner. But we both agree that Roma Pizza is the best pizza in New York." HERE COMES THE OVERSIGHT — Likely incoming House Oversight Chair JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) sent a letter Sunday to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN asking about NYT reporting that the U.S. tried to broker a secret deal with the Saudis to increase oil production, per Bloomberg's Ari Natter . "If the Administration is brokering secret agreements to the detriment of American energy producers and for campaign purposes, the American people deserve to know," Comer wrote. The letter … The original NYT story NOT HOW SUBPOENAS WORK — SAM BANKMAN-FRIED ( @SBF_FTX ): "Rep. Waters, and the House Committee on Financial Services: Once I have finished learning and reviewing what happened, I would feel like it was my duty to appear before the committee and explain. I'm not sure that will happen by the 13th. But when it does, I will testify." "Would-be Speaker McCarthy can learn from predecessors' struggles for the big gavel," NPR TRUMP CARDS EXPECTED — "GOP lawmakers largely silent after Trump suggests 'termination' of Constitution," WaPo EXCEPTION — @lisamurkowski : "Suggesting the termination of the Constitution is not only a betrayal of our Oath of Office, it's an affront to our Republic." TALKER — Trump finished third among potential GOP presidential candidates in a recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll of Utah voters, behind Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and … LIZ CHENEY (Wyo.). JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — From Littleton, Colo., NYT's Adam Liptak previews today's big case at the Supreme Court, in which a Colorado graphic designer is challenging a state law for the right to turn away customers with same-sex marriages. The case is similar to a 2018 wedding cake dispute in which the court ruled narrowly, but the justices' makeup has shifted to the right since then. Both sides see high stakes — for religious liberty, the First Amendment, LGBTQ rights and/or protections against discrimination. POLICY CORNER ACCOUNTABILITY READ — "Billions in Covid Aid Went to Hospitals That Didn't Need It," by WSJ's Melanie Evans, Liz Essley Whyte and Tom McGinty: "The aid enriched some well-off systems, while failing to meet the needs of many that were struggling, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of federal financial-disclosure reports. The mismatch stemmed in part from the way the federal government determined how much a hospital should get. A main factor used to allocate relief was a hospital's revenue, rather than Covid caseload or financial distress. … The Department of Health and Human Services, which administered the aid program, said it was designed under the Trump administration and changed after President Biden took office."
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   Invested in the future of education. Learn more about BlackRock. | | | WAR IN UKRAINE FORGET ABOUT THE PRICE TAG — Russian officials vowed this weekend not to comply with a price cap the G-7 is seeking to impose on Russian oil. The cap, which Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN has promoted, would lead Moscow to stop supplying any participating countries with oil, the Russians warned. It's set to go into effect today. More from Reuters Related: "OPEC+ Keeps Oil Curbs Despite Russia Price Cap," WSJ THE VIEW FROM SIMI VALLEY — The U.S. and Western allies, in both government and the defense industry, are still struggling to ramp up production to the level necessary to equip Ukraine, Bryan Bender and Lara Seligman report from the weekend's Reagan National Defense Forum: "[R]eigniting plants that make artillery, rockets, missiles and air defenses that were tailored for peacetime efficiency — rather than war-time production — is proving a massive task." LATEST ON THE GROUND — "Russian strikes kill at least 1 person in central Ukraine," CNN AMERICA AND THE WORLD GREEN WITH ENVY — French President EMMANUEL MACRON said on CBS' "60 Minutes" on Sunday night that he and Biden dove into concerns about the Inflation Reduction Act and its electric vehicle subsidies for domestic manufacturing. "What we decided with President Biden is precisely to fix this issue," he told Bill Whitaker. "And they are fixable." More details and video TOP-ED — "The Global Zeitenwende," by German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ in Foreign Affairs: "How to Avoid a New Cold War in a Multipolar Era." PAGING BIBI — Blinken said at a J Street conference Sunday that the U.S. won't waver from its friendship with Israel even if BENJAMIN NETANYAHU returns to power with far-right partners, per AP's Matthew Lee . "Blinken said the Biden administration would engage with Netanyahu's government based on its policies and not on personalities … But, Blinken also warned that the U.S. would object to policies that marginalize the Palestinians, diminish their 'horizon for hope,' or make a two-state resolution more difficult." BEYOND THE BELTWAY THE HOLIDAY WAVE — Covid-19 hospitalizations hit a three-month high last week following Thanksgiving, WaPo's Fenit Nirappil and Jacqueline Dupree report . Though RSV and flu are currently the biggest strains on hospitals, the Covid data is getting worse in most parts of the country. STORY OF OUR TIMES — "A Texas culture clash: Dueling parades over the meaning of Christmas," by WaPo's Eva Ruth Moravec and Molly Hennessy-Fiske in Taylor, Texas: "City officials settled on a compromise: Pastors could still have their Christmas Parade of Lights on Saturday, but instead of co-sponsoring it, the city would hold a second parade immediately afterward along the same Main Street route, the Very Merry Holiday Parade. It would be open to all [including drag queens]. Instead of quelling debate, the dueling parades divided Taylor, sparking a war on words online … As Saturday's parade day approached, pressure grew to choose sides over how to define inclusivity, Christianity and the spirit of Christmas." "Attack by 'cowards' could leave Moore County without power for days," The News & Observer MEDIAWATCH THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — DeSantis allies have started conservative media outlets in the state to which the governor has given interviews while he avoids the mainstream press, Semafor's Max Tani reports . "The publications offer an unfiltered platform for his message. And they've returned the favor of his attention with flattering coverage," he writes. "It's unclear, however, whether DeSantis could run a national presidential campaign through sympathetic conservative channels alone." THE STORY OF THE STORY — "Elon Musk, Matt Taibbi, and a Very Modern Media Maelstrom," by NYT's Michael Grynbaum
| | | | JOIN WEDNESDAY FOR A POLITICO DISCUSSION ON THE NEW TRAVEL EXPERIENCE : Americans are now traveling in record numbers — but the travel experience has changed drastically in recent years, not always for the better. What lessons can we learn from the pandemic and different responses around the globe? And in the face of a possible recession, what will help the travel industry remain vibrant and deliver jobs? Join POLITICO on Dec. 7 for "The Travel Experience Redefined" to discuss these questions and more. Breakfast and coffee will be provided. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Tony Dokoupil shared his story of deciding to get a vasectomy . Paul Pelosi made an appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors , wearing a hat and glove, his first time in public since being attacked in October. Sen. John Kennedy is not a kale guy . IN MEMORIAM — "John Prados, Master of Uncovering Government Secrets, Dies at 71," by NYT's Clay Risen: "An 'archives rat,' he was expert at digging through declassified materials to tell new stories about America's military history." FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Roosevelt Holmes is joining the White House as senior adviser for stakeholder engagement to the national cyber director. He most recently was deputy director for the Commerce Department's Office of Business Liaison. — Joyce Karam is joining Al-Monitor as senior news editor. She previously was senior U.S. correspondent at The National. TRANSITIONS — Robert Edmonson has been named chief of staff for Rep.-elect Robert Garcia (D-Calif.). He was most recently chief of staff for Speaker Nancy Pelosi's congressional office. … Miriam Sapiro is now president and CEO of InterAction. She previously was a partner at FGS Global, and is a State Department alum and former acting USTR. … Elana Ross is now director of strategic comms at the Health Resources and Services Administration at HHS. She previously was deputy comms director for Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.). … … Emily Fischer is now a director in USTR's Office of Southeast Asia and Pacific Affairs. She previously was principal APEC coordinator and economic policy adviser in the State Department's Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. … Josselin Castillo is now manager of government relations at the National Federation of Independent Business. She previously led health care federal affairs for Americans for Prosperity. ENGAGED — Lauren King, account executive at Gartner, and Ryan Wiebe, financial adviser at Merrill Lynch, got engaged Nov. 27 in Fairlee, Vt., where they go to a cabin every year for their anniversary. They met three years ago on Hinge. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) … Axios' Roy Schwartz … NYT's Mike Grynbaum … Jamie Rhoades of Quartus Strategies … Khorri Atkinson … WaPo's Rachel van Dongen … Gray Johnson … POLITICO's Liz Crampton … Mike Platt of Platt Strategic Consulting … Ruiyong Chen … Lisa Spies of the LS Group … Anthony Bedell … Brai Odion-Esene of SW4 Insights … Ari Drennen … Evan Burfield … NBC's Billy Koch … Anne Trenolone … Eli Miller … former Reps. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) and Rodney Alexander (R-La.) … Jamie McCourt … The Baltimore Banner's Jessica Calefati … Moira Mack Muntz … Nicole Drummond … Calvin Trillin … Herald Group's Caitlin Burns Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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