Thursday, November 17, 2022

🌈This Historical Trend Will Be Your Friend in 2023

Good morning. While the market may be due for another decline in the weeks ahead following its...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While the market may be due for another decline in the weeks ahead following its massive bounce, don't get too bearish. If history is any guide, 2023 should be a strong year. That's based on a historical reading based on political cycles. 2023 will mark the third year of the Biden presidency.

Third years tend to be great performers, with an average return of 33.7 percent in the two years following a midterm election. And the last time there was a negative return over 12 months following a midterm was in 1939, the year that World War II started.

Traders can keep looking for short-term bearish trades now, but keep an eye on long-term opportunities going into 2023.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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Sinking, falling, descending, dropping.

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MARKETS
DOW 33,553.83 -0.12%
S&P 3,958.79 -0.83%
NASDAQ 11,183.66 -1.54%
*As of market close
Stocks moved lower on Wednesday, following some big earnings misses.
Oil dropped 1.9 percent, closing at $85.28 per barrel.
Gold traded flat, last going for about $1,777 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies trended lower, with Bitcoin at $16,588 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
For Great Investment Returns, Follow the Greats
Many professional investors attract followers. And rightly so. Successful fund managers have to report their holdings to the SEC. That means their activity is updated every 90 days.

So it's easy to follow along someone who's already shown the capacity to make a market-beating return, no matter what the market condition. And in a bear market, those who follow along can potentially get into a great company at an even better price.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Boeing (BA)
David Calhoun, President and CEO of Boeing (BA), recently bought 25,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 24 percent, and came to a total cost of $3.97 million.

He was joined by a company director, who bought 1,285 shares, paying just under $202,000 to do so. This is the last insider activity since February, when two company directors also bought shares, at prices about 15 percent higher than where shares trade today.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Full Truck Alliance (YMM)
Shares of freight logistics platform Full Truck Alliance (YMM) are down nearly 60 percent over the last year. One trader sees a rebound in shares in the next month.

That's based on the December $10 calls. With 29 days until expiration, 13,846 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 561, for a 25-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.23 to make the trade.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Retail Sales Rise in October

Retail sales rose 1.3 percent in October compared to September, according to the Department of Commerce. Consumer spending rose on big-ticket items like furniture and automobiles, as well as on everyday items like gas and groceries, possibly the result of early spending ahead of the holiday season. Spending was unchanged between September and August.
Fed's Daly Sees No Pause Yet

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve, sees interest rates rising at least another full percentage point before the central bank pauses. That would put interest rates in a range between 4.75 percent and 5.25 percent, slightly higher than the Fed's current targeted range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent.
Coffee Prices Drop

A number of commodity prices have pulled back from their highs of the year. One standout is coffee, which has dropped about 35 percent in recent months. The drop is likely to continue, thanks to favorable weather in Brazil. The drop in coffee prices on the commodity markets will likely put a lid on further price increases at coffee shops.
Microsoft and Nvidia Partner on AI Supercomputer

Tech giant Microsoft (MSFT) is partnering with graphics processing company Nvidia (NVDA) to create a new AI Supercomputer running in the Azure cloud. The companies signed a multi-year deal to build the new computers, which will likely feature Nvidia's H100 GPUs, designed for machine-learning tasks.
Genesis Suspends Withdrawals in Lending Business

Cryptocurrency platform Genesis has suspended withdrawals in its lending business. The move comes following the bankruptcy of brokerage FTX. Other brokerages are reporting a large migration off of their platforms and onto digital wallets or cold storage wallets amid the selloff.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
TJX  4.726%
WRB  4.182%
RXO 3.658%
CPB 3.647%
LNC 3.396%
BOTTOM
AAP 15.1%
CCL 14.964%
TGT 13.365%
BBWI 8.535%
M 8.256%

Quote of the Day
The PPI read certainly adds more fuel to the fire for those who feel we may finally be on a downward inflation trend. The market embraced last week's consumer downtick and today's initial reaction seems to be more of the same.
- Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley, on why the latest consumer and producer price inflation data shows that inflation may have finally peaked, which could lead to the end of monetary tightening in the months ahead.

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