Corona Del Mar, CA
Howdy !
Here we go again...
...the stock market is trying to put in a bottom.
If you're keeping score, that was a 94% up volume day on the NYSE.
So the markets are saying one thing...
...while the majority is solidly bearish.
I've seen this movie play out before.
If you're short, you might want to be nimble.
I'll be brutally honest though...
I don't factor 90% up/down volume days into my trading. I use them in exactly zero strategies.
By definition, they are too rare, and I'm into short-term trading (a few days to a few months).
So what am I factoring in the most in my strategies?
By far, it's True Asset Pricing (TAP) data.
It's like having a daily Smart Money indicator for every ETF, so you know if it's over-sold or over-valued.
I recently used to to build four new strategies that trade once a month in stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities -- long and inverse. (Or rather The Boss SuperAi built them for me. I don't program trading strategies anymore).
Here's what they are saying for now:
Stocks (SSO): BULLISH
Bonds (TBT): BEARISH
Gold (GLD): BULLISH
Commodities (DBC): BULLISH
I would give 50x more weight into these strategies than I would tracking NYSE volume.
Since I'm on the subject of what's useful and what's not, let's do a quick run down of whatever comes to mind:
Elliott Wave: Bullshit
Trend lines: It's 2022
Fibonacci: Wrong numbers
Volume: Rarely picked by A.I
Trend following: Yup
Chart patterns: Pareidolia
Mean reversion: Especially since 1982
Economists: LOL!
By the way, these are just the things that people ask me about all the time, or I see being used to attempt to make money.
Barely anyone ever asks me about things like:
Multi-strategy trading
Ranking algorithms
Slippage
Out of sample testing
Alternative data (non-price)
Creations/redemptions
By the way, if you're serious about trading, and this last list of items was interesting to you, then let's talk.
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