Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Yup...that was a 94% up volume day

Yup...that was a 94% up volume day

Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy !

 

Here we go again...

 

...the stock market is trying to put in a bottom.

 

If you're keeping score, that was a 94% up volume day on the NYSE.

 

So the markets are saying one thing...

 

...while the majority is solidly bearish.

 

I've seen this movie play out before.

 

If you're short, you might want to be nimble.

 

I'll be brutally honest though...

 

I don't factor 90% up/down volume days into my trading. I use them in exactly zero strategies.

 

By definition, they are too rare, and I'm into short-term trading (a few days to a few months).

 

So what am I factoring in the most in my strategies?

 

By far, it's True Asset Pricing (TAP) data.

 

It's like having a daily Smart Money indicator for every ETF, so you know if it's over-sold or over-valued.

 

I recently used to to build four new strategies that trade once a month in stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities -- long and inverse. (Or rather The Boss SuperAi built them for me. I don't program trading strategies anymore).

 

Here's what they are saying for now:

 

Stocks (SSO): BULLISH

Bonds (TBT): BEARISH

Gold (GLD): BULLISH

Commodities (DBC): BULLISH

 

I would give 50x more weight into these strategies than I would tracking NYSE volume.

 

Since I'm on the subject of what's useful and what's not, let's do a quick run down of whatever comes to mind:

 

Elliott Wave: Bullshit

Trend lines: It's 2022

Fibonacci: Wrong numbers

Volume: Rarely picked by A.I

Trend following: Yup

Chart patterns: Pareidolia

Mean reversion: Especially since 1982

Economists: LOL!

 

By the way, these are just the things that people ask me about all the time, or I see being used to attempt to make money.

 

Barely anyone ever asks me about things like:

 

Multi-strategy trading

Ranking algorithms

Slippage

Out of sample testing

Alternative data (non-price)

Creations/redemptions

 

By the way, if you're serious about trading, and this last list of items was interesting to you, then let's talk.

 

 

 

Trade smart,

 

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio Boss, Inc.

260 Newport Center Dr, Suite 100 Newport Beach, CA 92660

 

About us: Created by our founder, Dan Murphy, Portfolio Boss 1.0 was released in 2014 as an alternative to mainstream back testing software. Although it was slow and clunky at first, it quickly grew because it offered scientific testing on large baskets of stocks and ETFs, including a ranking engine, and used a simple drag and drop strategy builder. No programming required. Also helping matters was the release of the popular report, The Relaxed Investor, with over 500,000 downloads and counting. Inside its pages laid the foundation for rotational investing, proven since 1926. Portfolio Boss quickly morphed into a multi-strategy trading machine with completely new concepts such as strategy stacking, spigoting, and meta-strategic trading. After years of development, Portfolio Boss morphed once again into the first automated A.I strategy builder with massive parallel cloud computing available to the public. With over 3,500 computer cores, "The Boss" was born. Not only can it invent trading strategies using human-made indicators, it also programs itself using C code. Currently, The Boss has been running for over 1900 years of compute time. Starting in 2022, The Boss was updated to include uncommon data such as fund flows and True Asset Pricing to improve strategies by a factor of 18x to 36x over indexing. What's next? Intraday trading and automation for starters. Our goal is to provide hedge fund level tools for everyday kitchen counter traders.

 

Don't want to stay in the loop with Dan? We'll be sad to see you go, but you can unsub to no longer receive emails.

 

Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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